NEW YORK, August 11, 2026, 2:01 p.m. EDT — Space Exploration Technologies Corp. NASDAQ:SPCX fell 5.5% to $131.04 during Tuesday’s open Nasdaq session. That put SpaceX stock 2.9% below its $135 initial public offering price. About 77.1 million shares had traded by early afternoon.
The decline erased Monday’s move above the offer price. Investors now face a new supply test on August 20. Roughly 320 million restricted shares held by insiders and early holders are expected to become eligible for trading. Eligibility is not dilution, and holders need not sell.
| SPCX market snapshot | Value | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Price at 2:01 p.m. EDT | $131.04 | 2.9% below $135 IPO price |
| Day change | -5.5% | Reversed Monday’s close above the offer price |
| Volume | 77.1 million | Live snapshot by early afternoon |
| Market capitalization | $1.73 trillion | Large valuation remains sensitive to float changes |
The first unlock produced the opposite result. Up to 911.5 million shares became eligible on August 6. SPCX then surged 15.8% on August 7 as feared selling failed to dominate. The next tranche is smaller, but Tuesday’s fall shows supply concerns remain active.
Retail investors nevertheless sold a net $4.5 million of SPCX on August 7. Sam North, an eToro NASDAQ:ETOR market analyst, said the flow looked “more like investors using strength to take some money off the table than panic selling.” Reuters
The earnings case is stronger than the share chart suggests. Second-quarter revenue almost doubled, while the quarterly net loss narrowed. Yet capital spending rose more than sixfold. That mix leaves the stock balancing rapid growth against unusually heavy funding needs.
| Second-quarter metric | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.814 billion | $4.071 billion | +91.9% |
| Net loss | $541 million | $1.008 billion | Loss narrowed 46% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $3.538 billion | $1.214 billion | +191% |
| Capital spending | $18.369 billion | $2.825 billion | +550% |
Connectivity remains the economic anchor. It generated $1.656 billion of operating income on $4.291 billion of revenue. AI produced positive adjusted EBITDA, but still lost $1.257 billion from operations. AI also consumed $15.828 billion of quarterly capital spending.
| Q2 2026 segment | Revenue | Operating income/(loss) | Adjusted EBITDA | Capital spending |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Space | $962 million | ($542 million) | ($205 million) | $1.174 billion |
| Connectivity | $4.291 billion | $1.656 billion | $2.597 billion | $1.367 billion |
| AI | $2.561 billion | ($1.257 billion) | $1.146 billion | $15.828 billion |
Management is asking investors to look beyond those costs. SpaceX targets a $100 billion annualized revenue run-rate by December. Q2 revenue equaled a $31.3 billion annualized pace. The year-end target therefore requires a 3.2-fold step-up from that base.
SpaceX said it entered cloud-services agreements totaling $14.1 billion of contracted sales during Q2. Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen later cited another $6.7 billion cloud-services contract. Deutsche Bank NYSE:DB analysts called the $100 billion target “likely very achievable,” led by cloud-compute and Cursor revenue. earnings-call transcript; Financial Times
| Growth bridge | Verified figure | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 annualized revenue pace | $31.3 billion | Four times reported quarterly revenue |
| December run-rate target | $100 billion | 3.2 times the Q2 pace |
| Contracted cloud sales at Q2 | $14.1 billion | Supports future revenue, subject to delivery |
| Cash and marketable securities | $100.0 billion | Provides capacity for the investment program |
| Backlog | $47.5 billion | Offers visibility beyond current-quarter sales |
Wall Street remains broadly positive, though forecasts vary sharply. MarketWatch’s vendor-specific snapshot lists 40 ratings and an Overweight consensus. Its average target is $225.84, about 72% above Tuesday’s intraday price. The $75 low and $800 high expose deep disagreement over execution and valuation.
| Recent analyst recommendation | Analyst | Rating | Price target | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arete Research | Andrew Beale | Buy | $450 | Aug. 11 |
| Clear Street | Brian Dobson | Buy | $217 | Aug. 11 |
| Morgan Stanley NYSE:MS | Adam Jonas | Overweight | $300 | Aug. 10 |
| Deutsche Bank | Edison Yu | Buy | $235 | Aug. 10 |
| Citi NYSE:C | — | Buy | $200 | Aug. 9 |
| Argus Research | Steven Silver | Buy | $160 | Aug. 6 |
| Piper Sandler NYSE:PIPR | Alexander Potter | Neutral | $140 | Aug. 5 |
Risks: An unlock only permits sales, so the eventual supply remains uncertain. The $100 billion target is an annualized December run-rate, not full-year GAAP revenue. Certain cloud-services agreements may be terminated on 90 days’ notice after ramp-up. The proposed Cursor acquisition has not closed. Starship milestones and AI infrastructure also carry large execution costs.
The immediate test is price behavior before August 20. Investors will also track volume as the float expands. Beyond that date, evidence that contracted compute demand can outrun capital spending should decide whether shares can hold above the $135 offer price.
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