Super Micro (NASDAQ:SMCI) Shares Gain After Early Margin Calculations Signal 73% Gross-Profit Rise

Super Micro (NASDAQ:SMCI) Shares Gain After Early Margin Calculations Signal 73% Gross-Profit Rise

NEW YORK, August 4, 2026, 11:06 EDT — U.S. markets open trading.

  • The stock rose 4.2% to $29.83 during trading on Tuesday morning.
  • Initial estimates indicate quarterly gross profit around $1.76 billion at the midpoint of the margin range.
  • Super Micro Computer’s final results for the fiscal fourth quarter will be released on August 11.

Shares of Super Micro Computer, Inc. gained 4.2% to reach $29.83 as of 10:51 a.m. EDT. The stock hit $29.89, raising its market capitalization to $20.7 billion.

Stock chart for NASDAQ:SMCI

The more significant profit indicator appears beneath revenue. Super Micro forecasts fiscal fourth-quarter revenue to approach $11 billion, with gross margin projected in the 15% to 17% range. These numbers are still preliminary and have not been audited.

With a gross margin of 16%, gross profit is projected to be approximately $1.76 billion. This represents a 73% increase from the third quarter, even though sequential sales are forecast to grow by just 7%. The calculation is based on Super Micro’s disclosed numbers and the lower end of its revenue guidance.

That operating leverage is significant as Super Micro continues to trade at a substantial valuation discount. Its trailing price-to-earnings ratio is under half that of any peer listed below.

CompanyPriceTuesday moveMarket valueTrailing P/E
Super Micro Computer, Inc. $29.83rose 4.2%$20.7B14.3x
Dell Technologies Inc. $456.65up 6.4%$299.6B36.4x
Vertiv Holdings Co. $273.70advanced 4.0%$107.6B62.0x
NVIDIA Corp. $209.81added 1.5%$5.12T32.0x
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. $50.77gained 1.1%$72.7B46.6x

The comparison is directional, as each firm features a distinct revenue mix, capital structure and level of exposure to AI investment.

Super Micro had previously projected a fourth-quarter gross margin of only 8.2% to 8.4%. The revised forecast, according to the company, is due to a more advantageous mix of customers and products.

Fiscal Q4 measureQ3 actualOriginal Q4 guidancePreliminary Q4 estimate
Revenue$10.243B$11.0B–$12.5BClose to $11.0B
GAAP gross margin9.9%8.2%–8.4%15%–17%
GAAP gross profit$1.019B$0.902B–$1.050B$1.650B–$1.870B
New orders receivedNot disclosedNot disclosedAbove $60B

*Reporter analysis based on guidance ranges and estimated preliminary revenue of about $11 billion. Company results and forecasts are unaudited.

With sales steady at $11 billion, the adjusted midpoint margin results in an additional $847 million in gross profit. This marks a 93% rise compared to the initial midpoint margin.

Super Micro saw strong demand, announcing over $60 billion in new orders for the fourth quarter and an all-time high backlog. Shipments are scheduled for upcoming quarters.

However, meeting that demand has come at a high cost. The company expended $6.6 billion in operating cash in Q3. By March 31, it reported $1.3 billion in cash reserves compared with $8.8 billion in outstanding bank debt and convertible notes.

Demand and funding measureAmountReporter comparison
Q4 order intakeMore than $60BOver 2.9 times current market cap
Q4 minimum revenueAbout $11BOrders surpass quarterly revenue by over 5.4 times
Q3 operations cash outflow$6.6B64% of Q3 revenue
Cash as of March 31$1.3BRoughly 20% of Q3 operating cash outflow
Outstanding bank loans and convertible bonds$8.8B6.8 times March 31 cash reserves

The ratios have been calculated by the reporter. The total order figure can contain commitments that might be cancelled, postponed, or otherwise conditional.

Super Micro announced in June that it planned to raise $7 billion through equity and equity-linked offerings. The company said these funds would enable it to meet approximately $39 billion in orders from over 20 clients.

In May, Chief Executive Charles Liang stated the company “remains robust” as margins improved. The July forecast supported that position, although full figures are yet to be released. Super Micro Computer

Super Micro is set to announce its final fourth-quarter and full-year results following the market close on August 11. Investors will examine if improvements in margin can withstand factors such as shipping schedules, client composition and financing expenses.

Risks: These initial figures have not been audited. Super Micro notes that certain orders might not be finalized and could face cancellation or postponement. The board is currently examining export control-related deals, which may impact projections or past outcomes.

TS2 TECH • EXTENDED COVERAGE

Further analysis

What does Supermicro need to demonstrate in its earnings report on August 11?
The focus now is on the preliminary Q4 gross margin of 15%–17%, after previously reported margins of 6.3% in Q2 and 9.9% in Q3. Expected revenue is close to the $11 billion lower bound, below the $11.67 billion LSEG consensus. Investors must see whether a favorable customer mix can support margins further. Final results are unaudited and may be revised.
Is it possible for the $60 billion influx of orders to translate into sustained profits?
Supermicro reported a record $60 billion-plus in new orders for the fourth quarter. Deliveries are scheduled over future quarters rather than all at once. Some of these orders may have non-binding terms or could be subject to cancellation or delay. As of March 31, one customer accounted for 32.2% of total receivables. The value of the backlog will ultimately depend on conversion rate and margin.
Is growth expected to produce cash, or will it need additional investment from shareholders?
Q3 saw $6.6 billion in operating cash consumed, even as net income totaled $483 million. Inventory climbed to $11.1 billion and receivables increased to $8.4 billion. The June financing included pricing for 45.5 million common shares and mandatory convertible preferred stock. The deal also allows up to $1.25 billion in ATM share offerings. Achieving per-share improvements now hinges on quicker collections and more efficient control of working capital.
Does the current valuation appear appealing compared to Wall Street’s projections?
SMCI is currently priced around $29.83, placing its market capitalization at $20.6 billion. Shares are trading at 14.3 times trailing earnings. The market cap represents approximately 0.51–0.53 times projected fiscal 2026 sales. Nineteen analysts have a Hold recommendation, with the average price target at $37.81, suggesting around 27% potential upside. Price targets range between $15 and $58.
Can ongoing governance and export investigations prevent a sustained rerating?
At March 31, disclosure controls continued to be ineffective, with four material weaknesses still unaddressed. The SEC sent a second subpoena on April 28, 2026. Supermicro is not named as a defendant in the U.S. export indictment filed in March. Its independent investigation is ongoing, while Taiwan widened its related probe in July. Results remain unclear, and any potential losses cannot be determined yet.
Mateusz Kaczmarek

Mateusz Kaczmarek is a financial and technology journalist at TS2.tech. His coverage ranges from stocks and artificial intelligence to semiconductors and developments across global markets. He graduated from the Poznań University of Economics and Business and worked in financial analysis before becoming a business journalist. Follow Mateusz Kaczmarek on Google News.

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