NEW YORK, June 12, 2026, 12:57 EDT
- Kalshi traders are pricing in a 54% chance that Tesla and SpaceX will merge before May 1, 2027. Shorter-term contracts are still lower, so the market is leaning toward a merger closer to 2027.
- SpaceX shares surged in their Nasdaq debut after its $75 billion IPO, a market record. Tesla was last around $396, putting its market cap at about $1.4 trillion.
- Tesla’s second-quarter delivery numbers, expected after the June quarter ends, and confirmation from the company on merger talks are the main events to watch next.
Some traders are betting again that Elon Musk could put Tesla and SpaceX together, after SpaceX’s public listing gave the idea more traction. On Kalshi, a prediction market, the odds for a merger deal happening before March 1, 2027 are trading at 36%. That rises to 40% before April 1 and 54% before May 1. To settle, Kalshi says there must be a definitive, binding agreement announced in official company statements—rumors or early talks do not qualify.
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell did not dismiss the idea of a tie-up with Tesla in a CNBC interview aired Friday. “That might make Elon’s life a little easier, actually,” Shotwell said. She pointed to synergies between the two companies but added her main focus now is on SpaceX operations and expansion, not a deal. Business Insider Africa
Merger talk surfaced the same day SpaceX began trading after the biggest IPO ever. The deal marked the first time shares in the company sold to public investors. Reuters said SpaceX opened at $150, well above its $135 IPO price, and jumped over 20%. That move sent the company’s value past $2 trillion. SpaceX last traded near $167.40. Tesla was off modestly, around $396.47.
The point here for Tesla’s stock is clear: shares rise if investors see more value in future cash flows or assets, and fall when those hopes fade or get too pricey. A merger could tie Tesla shareholders to SpaceX’s Starlink, launch, and AI businesses, but the outcome really hangs on the exchange ratio—how much stock each side gets. Tesla trades at around 364 times earnings, meaning investors are paying up for every dollar of profit. The current valuation doesn’t leave Tesla with much room to disappoint.
The bull view is that Musk could link Tesla’s factories, batteries, robotaxis and humanoid robots to SpaceX rockets, satellites and its AI push. Dan Ives at Wedbush wrote Thursday that he sees Tesla and SpaceX merging next year, and called it the “holy grail” for Musk’s AI play, Business Insider said. Tesla and SpaceX already cross over on some projects such as the Terafab chip, the report said, and Tesla’s earlier xAI investment turned into a SpaceX stake when SpaceX merged with xAI in February, according to Business Insider. Business Insider Africa
Valuation and governance risk are the main bear case. Reuters said SpaceX posted $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue and traded at a market value giving it a price-to-revenue ratio near 94. The company lost almost $5 billion last year. Price-to-revenue measures a company’s market value against its annual sales. Reuters mentioned Morningstar analysts put SpaceX’s valuation at about $780 billion, which is a lot lower than its value at IPO, raising the risk that Tesla shareholders could end up in an expensive asset.
Tesla investors are watching for the next big update, which should be the second-quarter delivery and production numbers once the June quarter wraps up. Tesla deliveries—the count of vehicles given to buyers—gets close attention as a demand signal. But Tesla cautioned in its Q1 report that these metrics don’t tell the whole story, with pricing, costs and other areas all driving results. In the first quarter, Tesla built 408,386 vehicles, delivered 358,023 vehicles and put out 8.8 GWh in energy storage.
Tesla is looking more risky than cheap right now, based on the current facts. Bulls are betting that investors will price in more of Tesla’s AI, robotaxi, and robotics potential, or maybe a future deal with SpaceX, rather than focusing just on short-term auto numbers. Bears point to the risk that a merger either never happens, happens on tough terms, or turns into a distraction for both Tesla and SpaceX, which are already valued highly. Traders could bid Tesla up if they buy into a real merger plan or if Q2 numbers look strong. Shares might head lower if deliveries fall short, if merger hopes dim, or if the Musk premium loses steam against the actual business.
