NEW YORK, Feb 20, 2026, 06:26 EST — Premarket
- S&P 500 futures edged up roughly 0.4% with investors looking ahead to Q4 GDP and December PCE inflation, both due at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Oil hovered around its highest levels in over six months as tensions between the U.S. and Iran persisted, stoking inflation concerns.
- Deere rose after the company raised its outlook. Traders, meanwhile, watched private-credit nerves following Blue Owl’s tweak to its redemption terms.
Futures for major U.S. indexes ticked up early Friday as traders eyed the 8:30 a.m. ET batch of data: fourth-quarter GDP, along with December personal income and outlays numbers—those also cover the PCE inflation prints. Oil prices held close to multi-month peaks, with ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions keeping the energy pit nervous. (Reuters)
Wall Street lost ground Thursday. The S&P 500 slipped 0.28%, Nasdaq dropped 0.31%, and the Dow finished down 0.54%. Volatility edged higher, with Treasury yields also climbing. “There is growing indication we have a fairly strong economy and potentially inflationary effects of tariffs,” said Chuck Carlson at Horizon Investment Services. (Reuters)
The dollar looked set to notch its sharpest weekly advance since October 2025, lifted by stronger U.S. economic data, a more hawkish stance from the Fed, and a boost from geopolitical tensions. According to Reuters, markets are now factoring in about two rate cuts for 2026, though traders have had to adjust their expectations as inflation proves stubborn. (Reuters)
Economists surveyed by Reuters expect fourth-quarter GDP to grow at a 3.0% annualized clip, a step down from 4.4% in the prior quarter, though trade and inventories could shake up the numbers. The data drop also brings December’s core PCE, the Fed’s inflation measure that excludes food and energy, with forecasts pointing to a 0.3% monthly increase and a 2.9% jump from a year ago. “It doesn’t really translate to feel as good as it looks,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. Lou Crandall at Wrightson ICAP noted the year-on-year core reading shows “essentially no progress since mid-2024.” (Reuters)
Then there’s geopolitics. President Donald Trump set a 10-to-15 day deadline for Iran to agree to what he described as a “meaningful” nuclear deal, while stepped-up U.S. military activity is stoking worries about a broader conflict—and what that could mean for inflation. (Reuters)
Brent hovered near $71 a barrel, while U.S. WTI traded close to $66—both benchmarks heading for their first weekly gain in three weeks, with supply concerns and a wave of bullish options buying driving the move, according to Reuters. Not everyone’s convinced, though. Some analysts flagged the possibility of OPEC+ lifting output from April and pointed to comfortable supply levels as factors that could keep a lid on prices. (Reuters)
There’s also the wildcard of tariffs. The U.S. Supreme Court might decide as soon as Friday on whether Trump’s emergency tariffs hold up legally. According to Penn-Wharton economists, over $175 billion in tariff collections could be subject to refunds if the ruling goes against the administration. Lysle Boller, senior economist at the Penn-Wharton Budget Model, noted that figure comes from granular, bottom-up analysis at the product and country level. (Reuters)
Private-credit jitters aren’t fading just yet. Blue Owl tried to reassure, insisting it was “not halting investor liquidity” after blocking quarterly redemptions for a non-traded debt fund and switching to payouts to return cash. The move put pressure on the stock. (Reuters)
Deere shares grabbed attention after the company bumped up its full-year net income outlook to $4.5 billion-$5.0 billion, up from the previous $4.0 billion-$4.75 billion range. CEO John May pointed to “customer demand has remained resilient.” Still, Deere cautioned it expects to take a roughly $1.2 billion hit from Trump’s tariffs, according to Reuters. (Reuters)
Carvana shares dropped roughly 8% after the online used-car seller flagged a hit to fourth-quarter profit from pricier vehicle reconditioning and depreciation. Several brokerages lowered their price targets. Stephens’ Jeff Lick, though, described the decline as a “potential opportunity” for investors. (Reuters)
Klarna shares, traded in the U.S., dropped 23% after the company posted a quarterly loss and laid out 2026 guidance that missed the mark. Rapid expansion drove up expenses. CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski told Reuters that while the company is taking the hit on costs now, revenue and profit should follow later. “As growth comes down a little bit, that will start to play out very favourably,” he said. (Reuters)
Investors aren’t allocating cash evenly, LSEG Lipper data shows. U.S. equity funds brought in $11.77 billion in the week to Feb. 18—the biggest net inflow since Jan. 14—but growth funds lost assets, while value funds continued to attract money. Mark Haefele, CIO at UBS Global Wealth Management, urged caution around concentrated tech bets, saying, “Within technology, selectivity is key.” (Reuters)
Next up: earnings season and political headlines, with Nvidia front and center on Wednesday. Investors are eager for CEO Jensen Huang’s perspective on AI budgets among the so-called “hyperscalers”—those massive data-center operators—especially after some tech segments stumbled into 2026. “It’s hard for Nvidia to surprise when everyone expects it to surprise,” said Marta Norton at Empower. Alpine Macro’s Nick Giorgi put it bluntly: “Jensen has to come out and show his confidence in his own customers.” (Reuters)
Still, this morning brings hazards: a core PCE reading running too hot, or a flare-up in inflation linked to energy, could drive yields up and knock out those rate-cut wagers in a hurry. Then there’s the wild card—a sudden Supreme Court decision on tariffs could send another shock through the market.
First up: GDP and PCE numbers hit at 8:30 a.m. ET. Then attention swings to the State of the Union on Tuesday, Feb. 24, followed by Nvidia’s earnings slated for Wednesday, Feb. 25.
