NEW YORK, March 27, 2026, 10:52 EDT
The VIX, Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, jumped 8.1% to 29.65 on Friday, following an 8.3% surge the previous day. Meanwhile, the CRB commodity index was up 1.5% on Thursday, according to three related AASTOCKS reports. The VIX tracks expected 30-day volatility for the S&P 500 via options pricing, and the CRB covers a set of 19 commodity futures.
The spike in volatility is coming just as raw-material prices climb again, a combination with the potential to hit both stocks and inflation. On Friday, Brent crude gained 2.5% to $110.70, while money markets reflected a roughly 60% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year. Tensions over the Strait of Hormuz—a key corridor for nearly 20% of the world’s oil and LNG shipments—kept traders jittery.
At 10:09 a.m. ET Friday, the VIX spiked to 30, Reuters said, with the Dow off 1.06%, S&P 500 down 0.94%, and the Nasdaq sliding 1.27%. American Airlines, United Airlines, and Carnival all faced selling pressure as rising fuel prices hit travel and consumer stocks. Nasdaq, already in correction, had fallen more than 10% from its October record close.
“Oil prices are calling the shots for now,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, pointing to the period before talks get underway. Ryan Detrick, Carson Group’s chief market strategist, added that the war’s been rough on sentiment—weakness keeps rippling across the tape. Reuters
Safe havens are in short supply. “Very few risk-off assets” remain, according to Rajeev De Mello, chief investment officer at GAMA Asset Management. Treasuries, the yen, gold—they haven’t delivered their typical protection in this latest selloff. Reuters
Traders are moving fast to hedge, and it’s clear in the numbers. ICE, which runs the New York Stock Exchange, logged its biggest-ever day for futures and options on March 3, right after the initial airstrikes. By March 25, commodity open interest touched a record. President Ben Jackson described clients responding to “supply risk” and “price volatility” on multiple fronts. Reuters
On the other hand, rising crude is giving energy giants some tailwind right now. Reuters said this week that Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Shell are in line for a better first quarter, with Brent averaging $97 a barrel in March—a 33% jump from February. Still, producers tied to the Middle East have to watch for operational risks if the conflict widens.
It’s a tricky message for policymakers. Fed Governor Lisa Cook on Thursday pointed to the Iran war as the reason risks now tilt toward inflation. Interest-rate futures show the odds of a U.S. rate cut this year have basically evaporated.
This trade could swing quickly. Barclays is still betting on traffic through the Strait normalizing by early April, which lines up with its Brent forecast of $85 for 2026. But if the disruption sticks around, the bank expects a supply loss of 13-14 million barrels per day and Brent jumping to the $100-$110 range. Macquarie, on the other hand, flagged the possibility of $200 oil if the conflict stretches into late June.
