NEW YORK, January 3, 2026, 06:04 ET — Market closed
- U.S. President Donald Trump said U.S. forces struck Venezuela overnight and captured President Nicolás Maduro, a claim Venezuela’s government has not confirmed. 1
- Investors are likely to focus on oil-linked stocks with Venezuela exposure and U.S. refiners sensitive to heavy crude pricing, as well as major defense contractors. 2
- Traders are watching for more details from Trump later Saturday, the Jan. 4 OPEC+ meeting and next week’s U.S. jobs and inflation data. 1
U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States struck Venezuela overnight and captured President Nicolás Maduro, setting up a sharp focus on energy and defense names when U.S. markets reopen on Monday. 1
The escalation lands as investors enter a new year already fixated on oil supply policy and the risk that geopolitics adds an extra “risk premium” — an extra cushion in prices to reflect potential disruptions. 3
Venezuela’s government declared a national emergency after explosions in Caracas and other states, while a U.S. official said Maduro was captured by elite special forces. Venezuela is a small share of global oil supply, but it exports mostly heavy crude — thicker oil that is harder to replace in some refineries. 1
Chevron, which holds a U.S. license allowing it to export Venezuelan oil, is likely to be one of the most directly exposed large-cap U.S. stocks in focus. Chevron was last up 2.3% at $155.90 on Friday, while Exxon Mobil was up 1.9% at $122.65. 2
The backdrop for U.S.-listed oil majors is already complicated. U.S. sanctions and recent seizures of oil tankers have halved Venezuela’s normal rate of oil exports, Reuters reported on Friday. 2
For refiners, the sensitivity is less about barrels lost and more about price swings in heavy crude. Valero was last up 1.5% at $165.31, Marathon Petroleum rose 1.6% to $165.14, Phillips 66 gained 1.2% to $130.57 and PBF Energy climbed 5.2% to $28.53.
Oilfield services stocks can also react quickly to shifts in crude expectations and drilling sentiment. SLB was last up 4.8% at $40.20 on Friday.
In aerospace and defense, traders will watch whether Washington signals a longer campaign or a larger regional deployment. Lockheed Martin was last up 2.8% at $497.07, RTX gained 2.1% to $187.25 and Northrop Grumman rose 2.7% to $585.66. 1
Shipping-linked names could also see volatility if enforcement around Venezuelan exports tightens further, after tanker seizures and sanctions squeezed flows. Frontline, a U.S.-listed tanker owner, was last down 5.7% at $20.58 on Friday. 2
Some market watchers cautioned against assuming a large, lasting oil-price spike from this weekend’s news. Vandana Hari, chief executive of Singapore-based Vanda Insights, told The National the immediate implications were “not much beyond another uptick in the Venezuela risk premium”. 4
What happens next hinges on details that were still scarce early Saturday, including the scope of the operation and whether it expands beyond military and security targets. Trump said he would provide more information at an 11 a.m. press conference at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. 1
Before next session, traders will be watching the Sunday night open in oil futures and the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday (Jan. 4), where delegates have said the group is likely to keep its current policy steady. That could limit follow-through in crude if the market stays focused on oversupply concerns. 4
Before next session, macro catalysts also loom. The U.S. employment report is due on Jan. 9 and the consumer price index is scheduled for Jan. 13 — releases that can move the dollar and interest-rate expectations, two key drivers for energy prices and cyclical stocks. 5
Before next session, investors will also look ahead to late-January earnings for sector read-through. Nasdaq’s earnings calendars estimate Chevron and Exxon results around Jan. 30 and Lockheed around Jan. 27, while Phillips 66 has scheduled a fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings conference call for Feb. 4. Guidance on realized crude prices, refining margins and any operational updates tied to Venezuela may set the next leg for these stocks — with $60-a-barrel oil a psychological line traders often watch in the current low-$60 range. 6
