NEW YORK, March 9, 2026, 09:14 EDT
Futures on Wall Street signaled another steep slide Monday, while Brent crude surged past $100 a barrel—a level not seen since 2022. The ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has disrupted tanker flow through the Strait of Hormuz, and fresh output curbs from the Gulf are squeezing supply further. S&P 500 futures dropped roughly 1.2%. Brent briefly touched the $120 mark before easing back.
This shift lands as markets contend with an energy shock, only days removed from a soft U.S. jobs report. February’s nonfarm payrolls dropped by 92,000—analysts had looked for a 59,000 gain. Unemployment ticked up to 4.4%. That combination forces the Federal Reserve to consider whether to prioritize flagging growth or tamp down on rising prices.
Wall Street was already on the back foot Friday, with the Dow sliding 0.95%, the S&P 500 shedding 1.33%, and the Nasdaq retreating 1.59%. Hotter jobs data and a sharp 12% rally in U.S. crude unsettled traders. By early Monday, the VIX volatility index touched its highest level since April 2025.
Oil prices pushed higher after Saudi Aramco started dialing back production at two oilfields, with Iraq also trimming output at its key southern sites and Kuwait joining in with supply cuts, Reuters reported. The Strait of Hormuz—normally a highway for roughly 20% of global oil and LNG—remained nearly closed off, leaving hundreds of tankers stranded and rerouting Saudi shipments through Red Sea lanes.
G7 finance chiefs are set to talk about a potential joint emergency oil release with the International Energy Agency, the Financial Times reported, a move a French government source later confirmed was on the table. Hopes for coordinated action knocked prices down from peak levels—though worries linger over how long the disruption might last.
Analysts pointed to uncertain supply and a murky military outlook, both clouding price signals. “All the ingredients for a perfect storm,” said Kpler’s Muyu Xu. Helima Croft at RBC Capital Markets echoed that, noting the lack of clarity around “what winning looks like”—so there’s little way to judge if the conflict blows over in weeks or drags out for months. Reuters
Bonds came under strain, too. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.18%. In Europe, traders shifted gears—from expecting rate cuts to now considering potential hikes at both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. It’s clear investors are watching inflation risks more closely than worries about slower growth.
Sectors moved in opposite directions. Alaska Air and United Airlines dropped around 3% before the bell as rising fuel prices pressured their margins. Diamondback, a shale producer, gained over 2% with crude prices heading higher.
Reserve releases might buy some time, but they don’t actually make up for the barrels that have vanished. Chris Beauchamp, IG’s chief market analyst, said the odds of a U.S. and global recession now look “vastly increased.” Mohit Kumar at Jefferies sees oil staying above $100 for months as a setup for “a much sharper repricing” in equities. At Goldman Sachs, analysts say that for every percentage-point hit to growth, S&P 500 earnings could fall by up to 4%. Reuters
Right now, attention is fixed on the G7 discussions and any sign that shipments might restart through Hormuz. That route typically carries around 20% of the world’s oil and LNG.
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