NEW YORK, June 28, 2026, 12:04 EDT
- Micron Technology, Inc. NASDAQ:MU dropped 6.69% to end Friday at $1,132.33. Shares hit a 52-week high of $1,255.00 earlier in the week.
- The stock is at about 9.1x annualized fiscal Q4 guided EPS. Its contracted minimum revenue, near $100 billion, comes in at less than 8% of Friday’s market cap.
- Micron’s record quarter got most of its boost from higher prices, not shipment growth. DRAM prices jumped in the low-60% range from last quarter, while NAND prices climbed in the mid-80% range.
- The PHLX Semiconductor Sector index dropped 5.3% Friday and was down 7.9% this week. Memory stocks face a test on Monday.
Micron Technology, Inc. NASDAQ:MU heads into the new week with investors trying to figure out how much of its earnings are already priced in. Shares dropped 6.69% to $1,132.33 at Friday’s close, the latest U.S. cash-market price since June 28 lands on a Sunday. Volume was heavy, with 86.41 million shares traded—about 1.6 times Micron’s average.
Investors looking for a clean read aren’t focusing on last quarter’s revenue. The number to watch is the gap between Micron’s market cap—about $1.28 trillion at Friday’s close—and its $100 billion or so in remaining performance obligations from key customer deals. Those contracted revenues amount to just 7.7% of its equity value. As of Friday, Micron also traded at roughly 9.1 times fiscal Q4 EPS guidance on an annualized basis, based on its $31 midpoint.
The gap sets up the next test. If these contracts actually make Micron less cyclical, its multiple could go up. But if customers resist higher memory prices, the market may stay stuck treating the stock as a boom-year trade for memory.
Micron posted fiscal Q3 revenue of $41.46 billion, up from $9.30 billion last year, with non-GAAP EPS at $25.11. Gross margin reached 84.9%. For Q4, Micron guided revenue to $50 billion, give or take $1 billion, with gross margin around 86% and non-GAAP EPS at $31, plus or minus $1. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said the quarter and guide “showed the strategic value of memory in the AI era.” Micron Technology
Micron’s story this quarter is about pricing. Fiscal Q3 DRAM revenue climbed to $31.3 billion, mostly on price jumps. Bit shipments were only up low single digits, but prices surged in the low-60% range. NAND revenue hit $9.9 billion, also driven by price. Bit shipments rose mid-single digits, but prices were up mid-80%. It was price gains leading, with volume following.
Micron said it signed 16 strategic customer agreements in data center, consumer and auto. The contracts account for about 20% of DRAM volume and around a third of NAND volume over their length. CFO Mark Murphy said remaining performance obligations, or RPO, tied to the agreements total about $100 billion, with $22 billion in deposits and commitments. Murphy added RPO “is not indicative” of Micron’s total future revenue from the deals, since it only reflects minimum committed levels and prices.
Micron’s week split in two. Shares surged more than 17% on Thursday, touching a record after earnings and at one stage boosting its market cap by $189 billion. For a bit, Micron leapfrogged both Meta Platforms, Inc. NASDAQ:META and Tesla, Inc. NASDAQ:TSLA in valuation. The Philadelphia semiconductor index added 1.9% the same day. “Greater supply visibility and continued tightness” should keep pricing strong across the AI supply chain, said Ben Barringer, head of technology research at Quilter Cheviot. Reuters
Chip stocks reversed course by Friday. The PHLX chip index slid 5.3%, leaving it down 7.9% for the week—its biggest weekly drop since early April. The Nasdaq was down 4.7% this week. “Questions about AI profitability and capex are certainly not going away,” said David Stubbs, chief investment strategist at AlphaCore Wealth Advisory. Reuters
Micron’s risk is starting to play out in how its customers act. Apple Inc. NASDAQ:AAPL has lifted prices on iPads and MacBooks, citing pricier memory and storage, Reuters reported. Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth described it as a “supply shock” caused by memory. That’s key for Micron. Its margin story right now hinges on customers agreeing to absorb the higher costs, not pulling back on orders. Reuters
Cantor Fitzgerald’s C.J. Muse said the talk after earnings is mostly about whether memory will break out of its old boom-bust cycle. He wrote it’s still “a very tight DRAM and NAND supply environment,” and sees 2027 staying tight. Susquehanna’s Mehdi Hosseini was focused on cash, saying Micron’s free cash flow could top $110 billion for the fiscal year ending next August, and most of that “should flow to shareholder returns.” MarketWatch
Micron faces a key stretch for its new contract story this week. There’s no fresh investor event on the schedule, with the next date for the company just the July 6 record cutoff for its $0.15 quarterly dividend, which pays out July 21. Eyes are on Monday’s open to see if Friday’s slide resets things for buyers, or if the chip-sector selloff keeps weighing on the memory trade.
