NEW YORK, July 6, 2026, 04:14 (EDT)
- Nasdaq futures jumped 1.06% early Monday, ahead of S&P 500 futures up 0.48% and Dow futures up 0.21%.
- The Dow finished at a record high on Thursday, but the Nasdaq slipped 0.8% as chip stocks dropped.
- OPEC+ agreed to boost oil supply for August, easing a key inflation concern ahead of the Fed minutes out Wednesday.
- PepsiCo NASDAQ:PEP, Delta Air Lines NYSE:DAL, and Samsung Electronics KRX:005930 are first up as markets look at appetite, fuel costs, and margins on AI chips.
U.S. stock futures jumped early Monday, ahead of Wall Street’s return from the July Fourth holiday. Nasdaq futures outperformed Dow futures by 85 basis points, hinting at stronger demand for big tech and growth names after chips slipped last week. Google Finance tracked Dow futures up 0.21%, S&P 500 futures up 0.48% and Nasdaq futures ahead by 1.06%.
| Market gauge | Latest move | Read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Dow futures | +0.21% | Edges higher after hitting all-time high in regular trade |
| S&P 500 futures | +0.48% | Traders lift the main index ahead of the bell |
| Nasdaq futures | +1.06% | Tech and growth names drive premarket move, not the broad tape |
| Crude oil | -1.00% | Some cost relief, inflation tick softer |
The split is notable after the last cash session, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.14% to close at 52,900.07. The S&P 500 was little changed at 7,483.24. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.80% to 25,832.67. The Philadelphia semiconductor index shed 5.4% that session, but was still up around 78% for the year.
That’s what investors are watching: futures look steady, but traders are wondering if the AI rally is moving to new names instead of just restarting. The Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF NYSEARCA:SPMO jumped around 44% in Q2—its best quarter ever—then lost 6.6% in early July. The Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF NASDAQ:SOXQ dropped over 11% in the same early July stretch, MarketWatch reported.
Bruce Zaro, managing director at Granite Wealth Management, told Reuters investors are probably locking in gains in chip names after strong runs this year. Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA slipped 1.4% Thursday. SanDisk NASDAQ:SNDK gave up 14.1%. Apple NASDAQ:AAPL rose 4.8%, boosting the indexes.
Oil prices eased off as OPEC+ bumped up output targets by 188,000 barrels per day starting August. Reuters reported Brent dipped close to four-month lows, trading near $71.95 a barrel. Cheaper crude could support growth stocks if traders bet inflation risk is cooling for now.
The market remains split on the Fed. After softer jobs numbers and a drop in oil prices, futures put the odds at 78% for no move at the July 29 meeting, Reuters said. “We’re safe at least for another month,” said Richard Yetsenga, head of research at ANZ, who expects the Fed to stay put. Reuters
Tickmill strategist Patrick Munnelly called the Fed “the key macro hinge.” He said Wednesday’s minutes will give the first look at how the Warsh-led FOMC is debating policy. June payrolls rose by 57,000, missing forecasts. Odds of a July hike slipped to about 22% from 30% last week, according to MarketWatch. MarketWatch
| Event | Timing | Investor risk |
|---|---|---|
| ISM services | Monday | Consensus targets 54.0; strong print could put Fed hikes back on the table |
| Fed minutes | Wednesday | Gauges how hawkish the committee was ahead of the oil drop |
| Samsung Electronics earnings | Tuesday | First main look at AI memory buying |
| PepsiCo earnings | Thursday | Focuses on pricing power and shopper trends |
| Delta Air Lines earnings | Friday | Shows travel booking and if lower fuel costs help |
Samsung is the main global chip readout right now. Analysts see the top memory chipmaker reporting operating profit at 86 trillion won for April-June, up 18 times from a year ago, based on an LSEG SmartEstimate cited by Reuters. In the U.S., Delta and PepsiCo will report ahead of the big banks next week.
There’s a risk that when the Nasdaq opens strong, it can mask weak breadth under the surface. If chip names see more profit-taking, even while big tech keeps its ground, the S&P 500 might stay steady but active portfolios could get hit by sharp moves across sectors. Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, said food prices and soft local currencies were “keeping monetary officials on the defensive.” Reuters
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