NEW YORK, July 6, 2026, 13:06 EDT
- Nebius Group N.V. NASDAQ:NBIS traded up 1.6% at $219.05 as of 12:52 p.m. EDT. The stock moved between $207.24 and $224.88 earlier.
- Google Finance and StockAnalysis show average 12-month targets that suggest around 8% to 11% upside from here. Public.com’s number is about 7% lower than that price.
- On Monday, three Form 4s showed company execs sold a total of 97,435 shares at $235.45 on July 1. The filings said it was to cover RSU tax withholding and not a discretionary sale.
- Meta Platforms NASDAQ:META is still the big risk for Nebius, with that March deal possibly hitting $27 billion.
Nebius Group N.V. NASDAQ:NBIS rose Monday. Investors watched the spread between shares at $219.05 and recent insider tax-sale filings posted at $235.45. The average Google Finance target is showing $237.38.
Shares traded up 1.6% at 12:52 p.m. EDT, volume near 9.7 million. CoreWeave NASDAQ:CRWV, seen as the closest public peer in the AI cloud infrastructure space, was up 6.5%. Meta Platforms NASDAQ:META added 1.6%. Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT slipped 1.4%.
This is important because the Buy rating does not leave much upside in the base scenario. The table below is based on a $219.05 stock price.
| Forecast source | Analyst/rating snapshot | 12-month target | Low | High | Implied move from $219.05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google Finance | 10 analysts, 6 rate Buy, 4 rate Hold, none Sell | $237.38 | $129 | $287 | Average +8.4%, low -41.1%, high +31.0% |
| StockAnalysis | 16 analysts, average rating Buy | $244.21 | n/a | n/a | +11.5% |
| Public.com | 12 analysts, consensus is Buy | $203.25 | n/a | n/a | -7.2% |
Google’s named targets are split. Alexander Duval at Goldman Sachs has a Buy and $286 target. Tyler Radke at Citi is at Buy with $287. Tal Liani at Bank of America Securities also has Buy, but with a $280 target. Josh Baer at Morgan Stanley stands out with a Hold and a $144 target. That’s almost a 100% swing from the lowest to highest on the list.
TipRanks said Sunday Northland’s Nehal Chokshi maintained a Buy on the stock and kept the $248 target, pointing to encouraging customer feedback for Tavily. Morgan Stanley analyst Baer held his Hold rating and $144 target, according to the same report, calling near-term targets “appear aggressive” with Nebius still needing major new bookings and showing only a modest profit record. TipRanks
New SEC filings handed traders another reference price for the tape.
| Reporting person | Role | Shares sold | Price | Estimated proceeds | Shares held after sale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkady Volozh | CEO | 46,627 | $235.45 | $11.0 mln | 821,662 |
| Danila Shtan | CTO | 16,937 | $235.45 | $4.0 mln | 274,763 |
| Andrey Korolenko | Chief infrastructure officer | 33,871 | $235.45 | $8.0 mln | 551,338 |
| Total | — | 97,435 | $235.45 | $22.9 mln | — |
The filings said the stock was sold once restricted share units vested, with the purpose to cover estimated withholding taxes under preset sale instructions. The filings also said the sales weren’t discretionary. The shares went for $235.45, which is 7.5% above Monday’s share price.
Meta is why even a small upside can matter here. Reuters said last week Meta is working on a cloud unit to sell extra AI compute, citing Bloomberg. After the story, Nebius dropped 12.4% and CoreWeave lost 10.8% as traders worried Meta could use less outside compute and might turn into a competitor. D.A. Davidson managing director Gil Luria told Reuters the new Meta capacity is “more likely to be on neoclouds than the big hyperscalers.” Reuters
Nebius has direct exposure here. In March, the company announced a five-year AI infrastructure supply deal with Meta worth $12 billion in dedicated capacity. Deliveries start in early 2027. According to the agreement, Meta is also able to purchase up to $15 billion in extra compute, putting the total potential value at around $27 billion. Founder and CEO Arkady Volozh at the time said, “We will continue to deliver.” Nebius
The bull camp can still point to some big numbers. Nebius posted Q1 revenue of $399.0 million, a jump of 684% from the same time last year. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter reached $129.5 million. In its shareholder letter, the company guided 2026 revenue to $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion, with annualized run-rate revenue between $7 billion and $9 billion. Nebius said it had locked in $6.3 billion in capital, counting $2 billion from NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA, and is aiming for more than 4 GW of contracted power by the end of the year.
Index inclusion raises the stakes for the next numbers. Nasdaq Inc. NASDAQ:NDAQ put Nebius into the Nasdaq-100 Index ahead of the June 22 open. Nasdaq said over $800 billion in AUM follows index-linked products. Now attention is on capacity. Nebius expects to have 800 MW to 1 GW of connected power by the end of the year.
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