NEW YORK, July 13, 2026, 04:29 (EDT)
U.S. stock futures slipped Monday morning. Nasdaq-100 futures dropped around 1.25%, sharper than the S&P 500’s 0.44% loss and a 0.13% dip on Dow contracts. Fears tied to fresh U.S.-Iran strikes sent Brent crude above $79. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. NYSE:TSM said June revenue jumped 67.9%. Despite that, tech led declines.
The gap is key. Tech stocks are called “long-duration” because their value leans on profits far out in the future. The two-year Treasury yield moved up to 4.2393%, the highest since early 2025. Rate futures were showing 39 basis points, or 0.39 percentage point, of tightening priced in by year-end. Reuters
| Futures contract | Latest reported level | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Dow | 52,836 | down 0.13% |
| S&P 500 | 7,586.50 | off 0.44% |
| Nasdaq-100 | 29,658.25 | dropped 1.25% |
Taiwan Semiconductor posted record revenue of NT$1.27 trillion, or $39.62 billion, for April-June, up 36% from a year ago and just ahead of the average forecast from 20 analysts. Taiwan Semi supplies Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA and Apple NASDAQ:AAPL. The results push back on worries about an abrupt drop in chip orders, but investors are debating what kind of profits those orders will actually bring.
The bar for earnings is high. FactSet puts S&P 500 profit growth for Q2 at 23.6%. Of the 18 S&P 500 names out with results through July 10, 89% topped the average earnings-per-share estimate. Combined, their earnings came in 14.5% above forecasts. Actual S&P 500 growth beat the quarter-end estimate in 37 of the last 40 quarters.
Oil is moving the rates outlook. FedWatch put chances of at least two Fed hikes by December at 50.9%, up from 47.6% Friday. “The crude oil price has been the driver,” IG’s Tony Sycamore said. But Thomas Mathews of Capital Economics called the dollar’s potential gains less certain: “It’s not clear to me the greenback would gain as much this time.” Reuters
Physical shipping numbers could mean more than official statements here. Before the conflict started in late February, about a fifth of the world’s daily oil and LNG moved through the Strait of Hormuz. Only six ships went through on Sunday, hitting a five-week low. Sycamore said investors seemed to be treating the weekend strikes as an escalation under a shaky truce, not a total breakdown. “How accurate that view is remains to be seen,” he said. Reuters
Tech faces another squeeze: cash flow. Bank of America NYSE:BAC analysts said hyperscalers have put out $234 billion in 2024. Free cash flow is set to flip negative for the first time since at least 2007. That’s the cash left after running costs and capital spending—when it slides, expensive stocks look even more risky as rates move up.
Blue-chip futures may get their next test Tuesday as JPMorgan Chase NYSE:JPM reports results around 7 a.m. EDT and holds its earnings call at 8:30 a.m. Goldman Sachs Group NYSE:GS will post numbers about 7:30 a.m. and its call comes two hours later. Investors will focus on how trading and fee income stack up against funding costs and any possible credit trouble.
The bearish take might flip quickly. Continued escorted shipping and a pullback in crude from the weekend jump could close the Nasdaq-Dow gap. TSMC’s sales and outlook are still backing the AI cycle. If there’s a lasting stop in Hormuz, though, higher transport and input costs could turn this into a margin and demand hit, with the Fed possibly forced to tighten further.
June CPI hits Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. EDT, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh set to testify in the House at 10 a.m. Producer price numbers follow Wednesday at 8:30 a.m., then Warsh heads to the Senate at 10 a.m. TSMC drops full results Thursday. For Monday, watch if oil and the two-year yield stay up. If Nasdaq futures keep lagging the Dow by more than a point, traders are just shifting money costs, not bailing on AI demand now.
Related articles: NYSE:TSM
