NEW YORK, July 19, 2026, 09:09 EDT – SpaceX NASDAQ:SPCX needs to recover $1.3 trillion in market value to reach the $225 share price targeted by Wall Street analysts.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. NASDAQ:SPCX, known as SpaceX, needs to recover around $1.33 trillion in equity value to achieve Wall Street’s median $225 target price. This figure is almost identical to the $1.34 trillion in value lost since the peak in June.
U.S. cash markets did not open on Sunday, following Friday’s close at $123.99. The new target calls for an 81.5% recovery.
On July 6, a 40.6% increase was needed to reach the same target. The percentage gain required has doubled over the course of 11 days.
SpaceX shares declined 14.7% last week, dropping 18.5% over six sessions. The Nasdaq Composite lost 2.9% for the week.
The difference is significant as the target maintains the valuation seen at its peak.
| Valuation point | Share price | Approx. equity value | 2025 sales multiple | Distance above Friday |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday close | $123.99 | $1.64 trillion | 87.6 times | — |
| IPO price | $135.00 | $1.78 trillion | 95.4 times | 8.9% |
| Median bank target | $225.00 | $2.97 trillion | 159.0 times | 81.5% |
| June 16 intraday peak | $225.64 | $2.98 trillion | 159.5 times | 82.0% |
Initial estimates: The equity valuation is based on roughly 13.2 billion shares. Revenue multiples are derived from projected 2025 sales of $18.674 billion. Numbers may not align between various data sources.
A share price of $225 would value SpaceX at around $2.97 trillion, just above Microsoft Corp. NASDAQ:MSFT at $2.93 trillion. The increase needed is about 80% of Meta Platforms Inc. NASDAQ:META.
SEC filings indicate projected revenue for 2025 at $18.674 billion, with a net loss of $4.9 billion. Based on Friday’s share price, the equity is valued at roughly 88 times sales. The proposed target lifts this multiple to 159.
Starlink provided the highest operating support. Connectivity revenue totaled $11.387 billion, generating $4.423 billion in operating income. The AI segment posted an operating loss of $6.355 billion.
Bank researchers are notably more optimistic than recent market trends suggest. Fortune cited a median price target of $225. Jay Ritter, an IPO specialist at the University of Florida, voiced skepticism regarding the close grouping of forecasts. “The analysts at one bank appear to be highly influenced by the prices the other analysts are predicting,” he said. Fortune
The sequence of losses began before the Thursday Starship scrub, with five declining sessions already recorded ahead of the after-hours abort. This pattern indicates that worries about valuation and supply had taken precedence before the scrub.
“Some of the engines didn’t start,” CEO Elon Musk said. SpaceX plans to swap out two Raptor engines. A new attempt at Flight 13 is provisionally aimed for Monday, July 20. Reuters
The 90-minute launch window is set to begin at 6:45 p.m. EDT. A successful lift-off may help stabilize sentiment, but would not alter the valuation calculations.
The next significant test for the market concerns supply. According to SEC filings reported by Axios, as many as 1.37 billion shares could become available following second-quarter results. FactSet lists those results for Aug. 6. Eligibility does not guarantee shares will be sold immediately.
Risks: The timing of the flight is still uncertain. Additional engine problems, a broader selloff in AI shares, or an increase in supply as lockups expire may add to volatility. A surge in Starlink growth or a successful test can swiftly shift market sentiment.
Monday acts as a catalyst rather than prompting a valuation reset. Investors are still tasked with justifying the rebuilding of $1.33 trillion while facing a nearly 159 times 2025 sales multiple.
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