Ondas (NASDAQ:ONDS) shares dip in U.S. premarket as Pentagon drone shortfall weighs on orders
28 July 2026
2 mins read

Ondas (NASDAQ:ONDS) shares dip in U.S. premarket as Pentagon drone shortfall weighs on orders

NEW YORK, July 28, 2026, 05:00 EDT — Ondas drops in U.S. premarket trade, pressured by concerns over a Pentagon drone shortfall testing its recent surge in orders.

  • Ondas shares slipped 1.5%, trading at $7.90 ahead of Tuesday’s market open.
  • Shares ended Monday at $8.02, gaining 2.8% with a volume of 66.4 million traded.
  • Ondas’ preliminary estimate shows that four-week orders represent 13.3% of its 2026 revenue goal.

Shares of Ondas Inc. slipped 1.5% in early premarket action on Tuesday, paring a 2.8% rise from Monday.

The drop came after new data highlighted America’s shortfall in drone production. While this shortage boosts demand for Ondas, it also increases the risk tied to its execution.

Stock chart for NASDAQ:ONDS

The Pentagon anticipates Ukraine will manufacture between six million and seven million small attack drones in the current year. By comparison, its $1.1 billion initiative will have ordered under 200,000 drones through February.

For investors, the implications are mixed. While government demand appears strong, there is still a lack of domestic capacity and compliant parts.

Ondas reported securing $70 million in new orders over a four-week period. The contracts include ground robotics, border solutions, counter-drone technologies, and precision-strike systems.

MeasureLatest figureInvestor comparison
Monday’s close (regular session)$8.02, rose 2.82%$0.22 increase for the day
Tuesday premarket price$7.90, fell 1.50%$0.12 under Monday’s close
Orders booked in four weeks$70 million13.3% progress toward 2026 goal
Revenue goal for 2026No less than $525 millionTarget factors in DZYNE and Omnisys
Equity value on MondayApproximately $4.57 billion8.7x target revenue

*Early estimates are based on the company’s announced revenue goal, the closing price on Monday, and a total of 569.84 million shares outstanding. Company guidance does not take Cyberhawk revenue into account.

The valuation benchmark places significant pressure on performance. Ondas’ market capitalization is roughly 8.7 times its stated lowest sales goal for 2026.

This is not an earnings multiple. It also presumes orders will become accepted deliveries without significant delays.

The supply chain faces an urgent challenge. Fresh Pentagon regulations require all small-drone components to be sourced entirely within the United States and ban the use of Chinese-made motors and batteries.

“It’s an increasingly difficult thing,” Pentagon program chief Travis Metz told Reuters. He noted that previous acquisitions were likely dependent on Chinese motors. Reuters

Ondas has begun adapting to that limitation. The company’s investment in FPF Defense, a private firm, will support manufacturing in the United States and help create a domestic supply chain that meets NDAA requirements.

FPF is working on a kinetic interceptor designed for targeting Shahed-class attack drones. Ondas CEO Eric Brock pointed to its “disruptive cost advantage” and the likelihood for mass production. Ondas Inc.

The financial base is growing, yet losses persist. First-quarter revenue totaled $50.1 million, and gross margin improved to 49%.

The company reported operating losses of $42.7 million. Adjusted EBITDA reflected a loss of $10.9 million.

Order intake is not the same as revenue. The rate of conversion will depend on delivery schedules, customer approval and available production capacity.

Risks continue to be elevated. Ondas spent $875.8 million to acquire DZYNE, issuing around 85 million new shares as part of the deal. Delays in revenue, integration hurdles, dilution, and reliance on domestic sourcing may all impact returns.

Nasdaq’s standard trading session opens at 09:30 EDT. Pre-market volumes are still low, so the early drop may not be a firm indicator.

What is the current trading location for ONDS, and how significant was the recovery?

ONDS ended Monday, July 27, at $8.02, up 2.8% in regular trading. The stock finished 22.8% higher than its July 17 close of $6.53, but shares were still 39.3% below the close of $13.22 on May 29. The 52-week trading span is between $1.78 and $15.28. The latest gains came as Ondas announced multiple new defense orders. Volatility continues to be elevated. StockAnalysis

What significance do the $70 million in new orders have?

Ondas reported $70 million in secured orders over the last four weeks. The contracts span ground systems, border security, counter-UAS, surveillance and precision strike, and incorporate a $6.9 million counter-drone order from Australia. The total represents nearly 13% of Ondas’ current annual revenue outlook. However, these orders are not yet recognized as revenue. Delivery timelines and the timing of revenue recognition were not specified, and the company did not say whether these overlap with previous orders announced in June, meaning totals cannot simply be combined. Ondas Inc.

Is it feasible for Ondas to achieve a minimum revenue of $525 million by 2026?

Ondas posted first-quarter revenue of $50.1 million. To hit $525 million for the year, the company must deliver about $474.9 million in the next three quarters, which means an average of roughly $158.3 million per quarter. This simple run-rate analysis does not fully reflect the impact of recent acquisitions. The new target factors in DZYNE and Omnisys, but not yet the still-pending Cyberhawk deal. DZYNE projects full-year 2026 revenue of $191 million following its July 2 acquisition. Ondas has yet to release a detailed quarterly breakdown supporting the target. Ondas Inc.

Is DZYNE’s $875.8 million purchase price warranted?

The acquisition closed with a declared value of $875.8 million. Ondas provided approximately $200 million in cash and issued about 85 million shares. The transaction price represents around 4.6 times DZYNE’s projected revenue for 2026. Management expects DZYNE to generate positive EBITDA from 2026 onward. These numbers are management projections rather than audited financial results. The final deal value will be based on integration outcomes, margin realization and fulfillment of contracts. Ondas Inc.

What level of dilution and share-selling pressure is still present?

By July 23, shares outstanding climbed to 569.86 million, up 49.7% from December 31. An additional 45 million DZYNE shares are scheduled for January 4, 2027. Of the newly issued 40 million shares, all were registered for resale, subject to a formula restricting sales to approximately 10% of daily trading volume. March filings indicated 195.5 million warrants, with 121.6 million of those being January warrants priced at $28. There were also 109.5 million contingent shares listed, which may not be issued. Ondas Inc.

Is Ondas sufficiently funded to support its strategy of frequent acquisitions?

As of March 31, reported liquidity stood at about $1.48 billion, with $447.8 million of that amount in short-term investments. Operating activities during the first quarter used $51.3 million of cash. The subsequent DZYNE transaction consumed approximately $200 million. Cyberhawk is expected to require around $119 million under the previously disclosed 95%-cash arrangement. Ondas has not released an updated post-transaction cash figure. Management’s twelve-month liquidity disclosure was issued prior to both of these deals. SEC

Has Ondas achieved profitability following its recent jump in revenue?

Ondas remains unprofitable at the operating level, posting a first-quarter operating loss of $42.7 million and a negative adjusted EBITDA of $10.9 million. Net income was $361.2 million, driven primarily by accounting gains. That result was largely due to a $389.5 million noncash warrant gain. Gross margin climbed to 49%, up from 35% the previous year. Management has previously set a target for reaching company-wide adjusted EBITDA profitability by first-quarter 2028, but DZYNE could impact that trajectory, making new guidance significant. Ondas Inc.

Is ONDS considered pricey based on its closing price on July 27?

With the share price at $8.02 and 569.86 million shares in circulation, the market capitalization stands close to $4.57 billion. This represents about 8.7 times the company’s $525 million revenue goal. Factoring in 45 million deferred DZYNE shares, the pro forma equity value approaches $4.93 billion, resulting in a ratio of roughly 9.4 times the projected annual revenue. These are market-cap-to-sales ratios, rather than enterprise value multiples. The updated cash balance following the acquisition has not been revealed. As a result, valuation relies significantly on Ondas meeting its revenue projections. StockAnalysis

What is the dependability of the backlog underpinning Ondas’ narrative of growth?

The pro forma backlog for the first quarter stood at $457 million, compared with $68.3 million at the end of the previous year. This figure accounts for both Mistral and World View on a pro forma basis, but excludes DZYNE and any recent order announcements. Ondas has yet to provide an updated consolidated backlog number. Customer concentration remains significant in relation to the current revenue base, with three customers contributing 69% of Ondas’ first-quarter revenue. The reported backlog figure does not specify consolidated margins or the timing of quarterly deliveries. Ondas Inc.

What are the key factors investors need to monitor in the week ahead?

Ondas has yet to announce its second-quarter earnings release date. The company’s investor calendar currently lists first-quarter results as its most recent financial update. Investors are advised to monitor for updates on scheduling, order backlog, and post-acquisition cash positions. Closing of the Cyberhawk deal is still anticipated in the third quarter, pending necessary approvals. The July 24 FPF Defense investment did not specify a transaction value, limiting immediate financial visibility. New order announcements could influence shares, but revenue recognition remains a more significant benchmark. Ondas Inc.

Marcin Frąckiewicz is the founder and CEO of TS2 Space, a satellite communications company serving customers around the world. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), he has more than two decades of experience in telecommunications, satellite services and technology ventures. He writes about satellite communications, space technology, artificial intelligence and the stock market, with a particular focus on technology companies, semiconductors, emerging industries and the trends shaping global innovation. Follow Marcin Frąckiewicz on Google News, Facebook. or Linkedin.

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