Nokia Oyj (HEL:NOKIA) shares climb 4% with €2.8 billion in AI orders under scrutiny for conversion

HELSINKI, July 30, 2026, 16:07 EEST

Shares in Helsinki gained 4.34% to reach €7.88. Trading continued until 18:30 local time.
Orders from AI and cloud sectors totaled €2.8 billion, equivalent to 6.3 times the quarterly revenue generated from those clients.
Comparable operating profit exceeded the preliminary consensus compiled by Nokia by 15.4%. The reported operating profit stayed negative.

Nokia Oyj HEL:NOKIA shares climbed 4.34% to €7.88 in Helsinki, partly offsetting a 5.82% drop recorded in the U.S. on Wednesday.

The company’s upcoming challenge is to transform its strong order pipeline into sales. Nokia anticipates that about 50% of the €2.8 billion in AI and cloud orders will generate revenue over the next twelve months.

This equates to roughly €1.4 billion, representing 29.1% of the group’s revenue for Q2. AI and cloud-related sales currently account for just 9.3% of the period. Demand forecasts are solid. Conversion has yet to be established.

Security	Latest price	Session move	Timestamp and status
Nokia Oyj HEL:NOKIA	€7.88	+4.34%	15:58 EEST; Helsinki trading
Nokia ADR NYSE:NOK	$9.02 premarket	+7.25%	09:02 EDT; previous close Wednesday $8.41, a 5.82% fall
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson STO:ERIC-B	SEK 95.16	-1.12%	14:48 CEST; Stockholm trading

Trading was underway on the Helsinki stock exchange, with the standard session scheduled to close at 18:30 local time. The U.S. listing stayed in premarket hours.

Manager filings on July 29 revealed the acquisition of 73,427 shares at a price of €7.8402, amounting to roughly €576,000 in total. There was no operating update included in the disclosures.

Q2 metric	Actual	Preliminary consensus estimate	Variance
Net sales	€4,815 million	€4,822 million	-0.1%
Comparable operating profit	€434 million	€376 million	+15.4%
Comparable diluted EPS	€0.07	€0.05	+40.0%

Nokia’s July 16 preliminary analyst roundup provides the consensus figures. Reported sales matched estimates, but adjusted profit diverged.

Adjusted operating profit increased by 18% compared to the same period last year, surpassing the preliminary forecast by 15.4%. Diluted EPS exceeded expectations by 40%.

Results came in below expectations. Rapid restructuring led to an operating loss of €50 million and diluted EPS was reported at zero. Nokia anticipates cash outflows relating to restructuring to total between €700 million and €800 million this year.

AI-and-cloud indicator	Reported or calculated amount	Investor proportion
Customer sales in Q2	€446 million	9.3% of total group sales
Order intake for Q2	€2.8 billion	6.3 times the quarterly AI-and-cloud revenue
Projected 12-month conversion	About €1.4 billion	29.1% of group sales in Q2

The conversion estimate covers four reporting quarters instead of just a single one. It is not to be considered entirely as additional revenue. Delivery timelines and current sales will intersect.

Chief Executive Justin Hotard stated, “Demand remains strong, while supply continues to be the main industry constraint.” Component availability now determines the speed of revenue conversion. Nokia Corporation | Nokia

Segment	Q2 sales	Sales growth	Operating profit	Margin: Q2 2026 / Q2 2025	Share of two-segment profit
Network Infrastructure	€2,037 million	up 12%	€166 million	8.1% / 6.4%	34.9%
Mobile Infrastructure	€2,680 million	up 6%	€310 million	11.6% / 12.2%	65.1%

Network Infrastructure posted stronger growth and expanded its margin. Mobile Infrastructure continued to account for 65.1% of the joint operating profit from the two core divisions. The shift to AI is significant. However, the bulk of profits still come from telecom.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. NYSE:JPM analyst Sandeep Deshpande highlighted the order intake, noting it was “dramatically higher than any number we have heard from investors in the past quarter.” Deshpande also raised concerns regarding the lack of changes to operational guidance. Investing.com

Shares of Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson STO:ERIC-B dropped 1.12% in Stockholm trading. The company recently cautioned that higher memory-chip expenses may put pressure on margins. Nokia is experiencing similar cost challenges.

Nokia forecasts third-quarter sales to grow between 3% and 7% from the previous quarter. The company anticipates adjusted operating profit to stay roughly stable before a significant uptick in Q4. Annual guidance remains unchanged at €2.1 billion to €2.6 billion, following a technical adjustment.

Risks: Potential delays in revenue may arise due to supply shortages, memory prices and the timing of orders. Nokia anticipates restructuring charges totaling €800 million, along with significant associated cash outflows. Currency fluctuations, tariffs and intense competition pose additional challenges.

Shares, trading at €7.88, are still around 47% off their 52-week peak of €15. For a lasting rebound, greater focus will be on achieved revenue rather than additional order announcements.

TS2 TECH • EXTENDED COVERAGE

Further analysis

Editorial insight

How is Nokia’s share price performing today?

Nokia shares were up 3.81% at €7.84 in Helsinki at 15:46 EEST. The company’s ADR ended Wednesday at $8.41, a 5.82% drop from Tuesday. Premarket figures at 7:49 a.m. EDT showed the ADR at $8.91, a 5.95% increase. The S&P 500 slid 1.52% on Wednesday, a less severe decline. Nokia’s Wednesday close was still 51.8% lower than its peak of $17.45 on June 3. Volatility in trading remains elevated. Nokia Corporation | Nokia

Did Nokia surpass forecasts with its second-quarter performance?

Comparable operating profit climbed 18% to €434 million, topping the €382 million forecast from LSEG. Net sales totaled €4.815 billion, marking an 8% increase on a reported basis. Growth in constant-currency and portfolio terms was 9%. The comparable operating margin advanced by 70 basis points year-on-year to 9.0%. Comparable diluted EPS jumped 75% from a year earlier to €0.07 per share. Reported figures were lower, with an operating loss of €50 million and diluted EPS at €0.00. Reuters

What caused Nokia’s share price to decline following its earnings beat?

The ADR dropped 5.35% on the day earnings were released, then slid another 6.47% on Friday. No clear single cause for the decline has been confirmed. Both ends of guidance rose by €100 million after two divisions were moved to different segments. Nokia stated its core full-year operating forecast was unchanged. Investors were likely unsettled by the operating loss, negative free cash flow, and €800 million in restructuring costs. This is inferred, not directly stated by Nokia. Trading volume on results day was 181.5 million, above the 50-day average of 109.2 million. MarketWatch

What is the current size of Nokia’s opportunity in AI and cloud?

Nokia reported AI and cloud sales of €446 million, an increase of 105% at constant currency. The segment accounted for about 9.3% of the company’s total quarterly group revenue. Orders totaled €2.8 billion, approximately 6.3 times the quarterly sales figure. Management anticipates that around half could be recognized as revenue over the next twelve months, indicating about €1.4 billion in potential conversion, though exact timing remains unclear. These orders represent commitments, not guaranteed recurring annual revenue. Risks include ongoing supply constraints and higher memory-chip costs. Nokia Corporation | Nokia

Is Nokia still on track to achieve its 2026 profit target?

Nokia’s €2.1–€2.6 billion comparable profit forecast is the result of a technical recalibration rather than underlying business momentum. Comparable operating profit for the first half reached €735 million as of June, leaving €1.365–€1.865 billion to be met in the remainder of the year. Third-quarter sales guidance points to sequential growth of 3%–7%, equating to an estimated €4.96–€5.15 billion. The company’s management anticipates Q3 comparable profit broadly in line with the prior quarter’s €434 million. Should Q3 deliver €434 million, reaching the full-year range would require between €931 million and €1.431 billion in Q4. While the target is attainable, delivery will be concentrated in the latter part of the year. Nokia Corporation | Nokia

Is Nokia facing significant challenges with its cash flow?

Nokia faces increasing investor risk linked to cash flow, with second-quarter free cash flow at negative €732 million. Net cash declined to €2.776 billion from €3.788 billion quarter-on-quarter. Around €1.15 billion in net working capital was used over the period, including €980 million related to changes in receivables, inventory, and liabilities. Restructuring-related cash outflows are forecast to be between €700 million and €800 million for the year. Management maintains a full-year target of 55%–75% free cash flow conversion from comparable profit. GlobeNewswire

What are the main business areas contributing to Nokia’s expansion?

Network Infrastructure posted the strongest performance in Q2, with revenue up 12% to €2.037 billion. Optical Networks reported a 20% increase in sales, while sales in IP Networks advanced 16%. The division’s operating margin rose by 170 basis points to 8.1%. Mobile Infrastructure sales climbed 6% year-on-year to €2.680 billion. Operating profit in the segment remained unchanged from a year earlier at €310 million. Despite higher sales, the operating margin fell to 11.6% from 12.2%. Growth continues to be driven by optical and IP networking. Nokia Corporation | Nokia

Does Nokia remain highly valued following the recent selloff?

At Wednesday’s close of $8.41, the ADR was trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 58.1, based on reported trailing EPS of $0.14. MarketScreener projects the P/E to be around 37 in 2026 and 23.2 for 2027. Those projections are based on an assumed EPS increase of roughly 59% in 2027. Q2 comparable EPS stood at €0.07, with reported EPS at €0.00. Restructuring activity continues to make reported earnings especially volatile. Strong execution will be needed for the stock to support these valuations. The Wall Street Journal

What is the current price target for Nokia stock according to analysts?

MarketScreener’s consensus of 23 analysts rates Nokia as outperform, with an average price target of €10.32. That suggests the stock could rise by about 32% from its 15:46 Helsinki price of €7.84. The range of targets spans from €4.65 to €18.00, implying about 41% downside or up to 130% upside from the same quote. After Nokia’s latest quarterly results, broker opinions remain highly split. Barclays has set a target at €8, UBS at €9.65, and Deutsche Bank at €11.50. The average target represents a scenario, not a guarantee. MarketScreener

Leokadia Głogulska Latest posts

Leokadia Głogulska is a financial and technology journalist at TS2.tech, covering stocks, artificial intelligence, space technology and global market developments. She graduated from Wrocław University of Economics and Business and previously worked in financial analysis before moving into business journalism. Her reporting focuses on helping readers understand the market trends, companies and technologies shaping the global economy.

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