NEW YORK, August 9, 2026, 14:17 EDT
- U.S. stock markets did not open on Sunday. SoFi ended Friday trading at $18.38, up 12.7% for the week.
- Initial estimates indicate an adjusted EBITDA margin of 35.3%-36.7% for the second half, compared with 30.4% for the first half.
- The stock is trading higher than the $18 median target set by analysts. The consensus price target indicates a potential upside of just 6.5%.
SoFi Technologies stock jumped 12.7% last week. The advance raised a more pressing question for investors: Is profit growth likely to speed up enough to justify the renewed valuation?
Friday closed at $18.38, representing 30.6 times the company’s projected 2026 adjusted EPS. The price is also 2.1% higher than the analysts’ median target.
After the second quarter, management increased its adjusted revenue forecast, now anticipating a range of $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion. Adjusted EBITDA guidance is maintained close to $1.6 billion, with adjusted EPS still projected at 60 cents.
The following second-half numbers are initial estimates, determined by deducting first-half reported results from the full-year outlook. These do not represent the company’s quarterly projections.
| Metric | First-half actual | Second-half implied | Change from first half |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted net revenue | $2.293 billion | $2.457-$2.557 billion | Increases 7.2% to 11.5% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $697.7 million | $902.3 million | Rises 29.3% |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 30.4% | 35.3%-36.7% | Improves by 4.9 to 6.3 points |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.24 | $0.36 | Up 50.0% |
This presents a challenge. Revenue requires only modest sequential gains, but EBITDA must climb at nearly three times that rate, and EPS is expected to grow by 50%.
The company delivered solid results in the second quarter. Adjusted revenue climbed 40% to $1.21 billion, with adjusted EBITDA up 44% to $357.8 million. Chief Executive Anthony Noto told Reuters: “Spending remains strong, demand remains strong, and credit performance continues to meet or exceed our expectations.” SEC
The business mix stayed uneven. Lending accounted for the majority of both growth and contribution profit.
| Second-quarter segment | Net revenue | Year-on-year change | Contribution profit | Contribution margin | Prior-year margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lending, adjusted | $711.7 million | +59% | $399.0 million | 56% | 55% |
| Financial Services | $466.3 million | +29% | $212.7 million | 46% | 52% |
| Technology Platform | $84.5 million | -23% | $11.8 million | 14% | 30% |
Lending continues to drive margin performance. Technology Platform revenue dropped 23%, with its contribution margin falling by over half. Financial Services grew, though its margin slipped by six percentage points.
Funding offers a degree of protection. Deposits increased by $5.3 billion over the quarter, reaching $45.5 billion. SoFi calculated that its deposit composition resulted in $712.6 million in annualized interest expense savings.
Credit quality strengthened over the quarter. The annualized charge-off rate for personal loans reported dropped to 2.62%, compared to 2.83% in the same period last year. At the same time, personal-loan originations hit an all-time high of $10.7 billion, boosting exposure should consumer conditions deteriorate.
The recovery extended beyond just one name. Upstart Holdings NASDAQ:UPST edged ahead of SoFi, and Affirm Holdings NASDAQ:AFRM delivered a more modest weekly advance.
| Company | July 31 close | August 7 close | Weekly change |
|---|---|---|---|
| SoFi Technologies NASDAQ:SOFI | $16.31 | $18.38 | up 12.7% |
| Upstart Holdings NASDAQ:UPST | $27.44 | $31.09 | gain of 13.3% |
| Affirm Holdings NASDAQ:AFRM | $71.51 | $75.25 | rising 5.2% |
The trend indicates wider fintech demand contributed to SoFi’s rebound. The shift was not just a change in view on SoFi’s earnings prospects.
Analyst views are divided, with the consensus at Hold. Neutral ratings account for half of the current recommendations.
| Analyst measure | Current reading |
|---|---|
| Buy or Overweight recommendations | 8 |
| Hold recommendations | 13 |
| Underweight or Sell recommendations | 5 |
| Consensus view | Hold |
| Average price objective | $19.58, indicating 6.5% potential gain |
| Median price objective | $18.00, suggesting 2.1% potential decrease |
| Upper price target | $30.00 |
| Lower price target | $12.00 |
The median target is currently under the market price. The $12-to-$30 span highlights an uncommon level of disagreement regarding SoFi’s earnings potential.
Markets will reopen for regular trading on Monday, August 10, starting at 9:30 a.m. EDT. Consumer price figures for July are due on Wednesday, with producer price data following on Thursday. July retail sales will be released on Friday. These reports may influence interest rate outlooks, funding expenses and appetite for consumer loans.
Risks: Softer consumer credit may drive higher charge-offs following fast loan expansion. Contraction in the Technology Platform might continue. Volatility in rates could impact demand or asset yields. The necessary margin improvement in the second half offers little margin for execution missteps.
SoFi has recovered much of its valuation drop following earnings. The next challenge is for investors to see whether the company’s record revenue will translate into significantly stronger profit growth.
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