STARBASE, August 11, 2026, 14:05 EDT
- SpaceX stock declined 4.5% to $132.57 in trading on Tuesday.
- Roughly 320 million shares may become available following an August 20 lockup expiration.
- The tranche represents 3.4 times the stock’s typical daily trading volume.
Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. NASDAQ:SPCX dropped under their $135 offering price on Tuesday, as investors anticipated a further post-IPO share unlock. At 1:38 p.m. in New York, the stock was trading at $132.57, representing a 4.5% decline during the ongoing session.
The upcoming supply test exceeds the day’s trading activity. On August 20, approximately 320 million shares could be available for sale. This is 3.4 times SpaceX’s typical daily volume of 94.89 million shares.
At Tuesday’s price, the tranche carries an approximate notional value of $42.4 billion. Not all eligible holders will necessarily sell, but the size of the tranche accounts for the turnaround after a three-day rally.
| Market measure | August 11 reading | Investor context |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | $132.57 | Intraday drop of 4.45% |
| IPO offer price | $135.00 | Now trading 1.8% below IPO |
| Session range | $131.32-$139.98 | Started session at $138.66 |
| 52-week high | $225.64 | Currently 41.2% under peak |
| Market value | $1.75 trillion | Google Finance valuation |
The data in the table is sourced from Google Finance’s intraday snapshots. Offer-price and peak discounts are determined based on quoted figures. SpaceX traded over $138 on Monday following its initial unlock, amid reports of minimal selling activity.
| August 20 supply figure | Computed total | Calculation method |
|---|---|---|
| Shares newly available | Roughly 320 million | Disclosed lockup batch |
| Portion of total shares | 4.2% | 320 million / 7.70 billion issued |
| Ratio to average volume | 3.4 times | 320 million / 94.89 million |
| Implied market value | $42.4 billion | 320 million × $132.57 |
The unlock table merges the tranche detailed by Barron’s with share count, price, and average volume sourced from Google Finance. The $42.4 billion sum reflects potential supply at a given price, not an indication of actual sales.
SpaceX’s financial performance offers investors a key foundation. Revenue for the second quarter increased to $7.81 billion, up from $4.07 billion in the same period last year. Net loss decreased to $541 million compared to $1.01 billion previously.
| Q2 measure | 2026 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.81 billion | $4.07 billion | up 92% |
| Operating income/(loss) | ($141 million) | ($775 million) | Loss reduced by 82% |
| Net income/(loss) | ($541 million) | ($1.01 billion) | Loss fell 46% |
| EBITDA | $2.78 billion | $837 million | up 232% |
The company’s revenue surpassed Wall Street expectations by 14.6%. Its loss per share was nine cents, narrower than the 21 cents predicted by Google Finance. Substantial investment continues to be a key concern.
| Q2 revenue source | Revenue | Approximate group share |
|---|---|---|
| Starlink connectivity | $4.3 billion | 55% |
| AI operations | $2.56 billion | 33% |
| Space operations | $962 million | 12% |
Starlink continues as the main source of revenue. Revenue from AI has surpassed that of the launch division, placing emphasis on capital expenditures in the company’s valuation. SpaceX spent about $18.4 billion during the quarter, with around $16 billion directed toward AI infrastructure.
Chief Executive Elon Musk described the $100 billion year-end revenue run-rate goal as “effectively guaranteed.” The annualised rate at present stands just over $30 billion, setting up a sharp increase required in the second half. Financial Times
Analyst sentiment remains positive, though views are divided. Google Finance recorded 24 buy ratings, six hold recommendations, and two sell ratings. The consensus target stood at $227.57, with estimates varying from $75 up to $800.
| Analyst | Firm | Recommendation | Target | Latest action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Dobson | Clear Street | Buy | $217 | Reiterated August 11 |
| Andrew Beale | Arete Research | Buy | $450 | Unchanged August 11 |
| Adam Jonas | Morgan Stanley | Buy | $300 | Unchanged August 10 |
| Edison Yu | Deutsche Bank | Buy | $235 | Unchanged August 10 |
| Alexander Potter | Piper Sandler | Hold | $140 | Unchanged August 5 |
Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley stated that the disconnect between negative market sentiment and “largely unchanged fundamentals” presents a compelling buying opportunity. His price target of $300 attributes over 50% of SpaceX’s valuation to AI. Los Angeles Times
Tuesday’s decline came after disappointing earnings from direct-to-device competitor AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ:ASTS, though that influence appears less significant. The main immediate risk concerns selling from shareholders now permitted to offload shares.
Risks remain high. Developing AI demands significant ongoing investment, and there is still uncertainty around Starship’s progress. Volatility could rise due to insider stock sales, while the broad range of analyst targets highlights how shifts in long-term assumptions affect valuation.
The most pressing test comes with the August 20 unlock. The release of 320 million shares matches over three typical trading days, making restrained selling more significant than setting another lofty revenue goal.
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