NEW YORK, July 13, 2026, 15:06 EDT
Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD dropped 3.7% in late trading Monday, despite TD Cowen’s Joshua Buchalter hiking his price target to $675 from $600. The new target, which is about 25.7% above the stock’s current $537 level, puts AMD’s estimated equity value near $1.10 trillion if you use the company’s 1.6306 billion shares outstanding. That’s about $225 billion higher than today’s value by the same measure.
The split is key here since the average analyst target sits at $522.65, which is 2.7% below current levels. Buchalter said semiconductor fundamentals are still solid and linked his view to higher demand for CPUs, the chips that run servers, thanks to agentic AI — software that can handle multi-step tasks — and new product launches coming later in the year. But shares fell, showing investors want execution now instead of another bump in the target.
Recent price targets show about a $289 billion gap in implied equity value between the average call and what Cantor Fitzgerald projects at the high end. Stifel’s $635 target, mentioned in the Yahoo piece, lands in the middle.
| View | Price target | Move from $537.09 | Implied equity value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $537.09 | — | $875.8 billion |
| Average analyst target | $522.65 | -2.7% | $852.2 billion |
| Stifel | $635.00 | up 18.2% | $1.035 trillion |
| TD Cowen | $675.00 | up 25.7% | $1.101 trillion |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | $700.00 | up 30.3% | $1.141 trillion |
Numbers use AMD’s latest 1.6306 billion shares. Contingent customer warrants are not included.
AMD is showing some real momentum in its operations. First-quarter revenue hit $10.253 billion. Data-center sales jumped 57% to $5.775 billion, now making up 56.3% of sales. If that pace holds, annualized data-center revenue would be $23.1 billion, which is 39% higher than the $16.6 billion for all of 2025. The company forecasts about $11.2 billion for second-quarter revenue and put adjusted gross margin at 56%. CEO Lisa Su said, “We are seeing strong momentum as inferencing and agentic AI drive increasing demand for high-performance CPUs and accelerators.” Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
The bullish story now reaches past Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA in GPUs for AI, as Wells Fargo projects AMD’s server-CPU sales will hit $16.0 billion in 2026, climb to $20.5 billion in 2027, and go up to $25.0 billion by 2028, an average pace of 25% a year. Wells Fargo’s forecast for AMD’s data-center GPU sales jumps from $15.6 billion to $63.0 billion over that period. That brings AMD’s server fight with Intel NASDAQ:INTC almost level with its battle for accelerators with Nvidia as a focus for investors, according to the bank.
Investors may be missing the size of AMD’s potential share dilution. AMD’s Q1 filing showed OpenAI and Meta Platforms NASDAQ:META have warrants for up to 160 million AMD shares each, exercisable at a penny. The warrants can vest if GPU buying, technical benchmarks, and AMD’s stock price all meet specific triggers. If both sets vest in full, that’s up to 320 million shares—19.6% of AMD’s last reported share count. AMD still had $9.2 billion left in its buyback authorization as of March 28.
| Illustrative scenario | Share count | Equity value |
|---|---|---|
| Current price and shares as reported | 1.6306 billion | $875.8 billion |
| $675 price target, current reported shares | 1.6306 billion | $1.1007 trillion |
| $675 price target, all warrants exercised | 1.9506 billion | $1.3167 trillion |
This is a maximum example, not a dilution forecast. Assumes there are no buybacks or changes to shares outstanding.
But the warrants can cut both ways. Full vesting won’t come automatically — it needs hefty customer buying, so the revenue and profit tied to those extra sales could more than make up for any dilution. The bigger risk is on execution: a product slip, a pause in cloud capital spending, or falling short of the $11.2 billion sales target would put pressure on a forward price-to-earnings ratio that’s still running above AMD’s long-run average. “We’ve never seen this kind of extreme earnings growth. But the question then becomes, how long can we expect this to continue,” said Steve Sosnick, chief market analyst at Interactive Brokers. Reuters
Next up, AMD has its Advancing AI event scheduled for July 22-23. Then the company’s Q2 results will hit after the bell on Aug. 4. Investors are looking for clear launch dates and proof on margins and data-center split — solid enough to close the $225 billion valuation gap seen in TD Cowen’s target. Another round of higher estimates probably won’t cut it.
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