NEW YORK, March 16, 2026, 13:37 EDT
Stocks bounced Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average recovering 332.93 points, or 0.72%, to 46,891.40 after last week’s losses. The S&P 500 advanced 0.97%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.26%, according to Reuters market data.
The bounce comes just as nerves are fraying. The Dow slipped 119.38 points Friday, capping a losing week, and the Federal Reserve is set to keep its key rate stuck at 3.50%-3.75% this Wednesday. Traders now see just a quarter-point of rate cuts this year—less than half the easing priced in before the Iran conflict. “Investors had avoided riskier parts of the bond market” as prospects dimmed, said Danny Zaid at TwentyFour Asset Management. Reuters
Oil prices eased, giving equities a bit of relief. Brent settled down $1.46 at $101.68 per barrel. U.S. crude slid $3.95 to $94.76 after Washington signaled it’s permitting limited shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz for now. Steve Edwards at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management cautioned that a drawn-out conflict could start weighing on “certain aspects to the AI capex story” if shipments of energy and chips face further constraints. Reuters
Tech took charge, with Nvidia up 2.6% ahead of its developer conference and Meta also climbing 2.6%. All 11 S&P sectors finished higher, technology out front. “Any Fed signal should be taken with ‘a pinch of salt’ because oil prices could still swing quickly in either direction,” wrote James McCann, senior economist at Edward Jones. Reuters
Salesforce and Nvidia drove roughly 56 points higher on the Dow, while Goldman Sachs and Boeing added to the lift. Since the Dow is price-weighted, moves in pricier stocks like these punch above their weight in shifting the average.
Still, the relief rally looks fragile. According to Reuters calculations, Gulf oil exports dropped sharply in the week ending March 15—averaging just 9.71 million barrels per day, a 61% plunge from February—as the Strait of Hormuz stayed largely shut. Meanwhile, floating storage for Middle Eastern crude has swelled past 50 million barrels.
Goldman Sachs warned a major supply shock might pull the S&P 500 down to around 5,400 this year, a drop of about 19% from Friday’s close. Still, the bank left its base-case target for the index unchanged at 7,600 by year-end. “The baseline outlook for U.S. equities remains constructive, but the war in Iran adds to the downside risk posed by elevated valuations,” Goldman wrote. Reuters
The Dow’s showing a bounce, but hardly a verdict. Crude, the Fed’s Wednesday call, or any Gulf developments all seem poised to drive the next move more than just today’s uptick.
