New York, Feb 4, 2026, 11:01 EST — Regular session
- Shares surged about 10% in late-morning trading after the company reported earnings and issued guidance for 2026
- Q4 revenue soared 43%, driven largely by strong sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound
- Focus shifts to growing pricing pressure on obesity drugs ahead of the FDA’s April decision on orforglipron
Eli Lilly and Company shares surged about 10% Wednesday after the company released its quarterly earnings and 2026 outlook, sparking renewed enthusiasm for its weight-loss division. The stock climbed to $1,104.94 in late-morning New York trading, bouncing back from a low of $995.88 earlier in the session.
The rebound came after obesity-drug shares plunged sharply when competitor Novo Nordisk issued a weak 2026 sales forecast, sending Lilly down about 4% Tuesday. Pricing pressure, rather than prescription growth, appears to be the main concern for investors.
Traders are focusing on the shift to cheaper direct sales and the resulting margin squeeze. Wegovy and Zepbound are priced on company sites starting from $199 to $299. Lilly’s oral obesity drug, orforglipron, awaits a U.S. FDA decision expected in April. Evan Seigerman at BMO Capital pointed out that the outlook “reminds us that while Lilly and Novo play in the same markets, the pressures they face are not identical.” Cantor’s Carter Gould called the guidance a “far more confident view of the market.” Reuters
Lilly posted a 43% rise in fourth-quarter revenue to $19.3 billion, with adjusted EPS coming in at $7.54. Their non-GAAP numbers exclude items like acquired in-process R&D charges. Sales of the diabetes drug Mounjaro jumped 110% to $7.41 billion, while obesity drug Zepbound grew 123%, hitting $4.26 billion.
Lilly projected 2026 revenue in the range of $80 billion to $83 billion, with non-GAAP EPS forecast between $33.50 and $35.00. CEO David Ricks called 2025 “an important year for Lilly,” pointing to efforts to expand manufacturing capacity and a U.S. government agreement aimed at increasing access to obesity drugs. PR Newswire
A recent filing showed Lilly submitted its results through a Form 8-K, attaching the earnings release as an exhibit.
Attention turns to the practical question: how fast will price cuts spread across the market? And can sales volume climb enough to make up for squeezed profits?
The downside is clear. If discounts deepen in the cash-pay market—where patients pay out of pocket—sales might rise, but profit growth risks stalling. This is especially true if rivals dump pills and longer-acting shots into the market aimed at the same customer base.
Novo remains the benchmark, yet it’s hardly the sole contender. Big pharma and smaller biotech companies alike scramble to meet consumer demand, with the market quick to penalize any slip in pricing strategies.
Investors are zeroed in on management’s outlook for pricing and supply. Coming up next: the FDA’s expected April decision on orforglipron.
