New York, February 23, 2026, 16:19 EST — After-hours
- Eli Lilly shares jumped roughly 5% late Monday after rival Novo Nordisk reported obesity trial results that came in softer than expected.
- Novo’s U.S. shares dropped roughly 16%, deepening losses across weight-loss drug stocks.
- Investors are trying to figure out if these results shift market share, change pricing, or set the stage for the next round of obesity drug launches.
Eli Lilly (LLY.N) jumped roughly 4.9% to $1,058.23 late Monday, after Novo Nordisk revealed its next-gen obesity candidate, CagriSema, didn’t measure up to Lilly’s Zepbound in direct comparison. Novo’s U.S. shares dropped sharply, sliding 16.4% to $39.63.
This mattered to Wall Street, which has fixated on obesity drugs as a rare growth engine with enough momentum to shift valuations single-handedly. True comparables are thin on the ground, so investors took it as a signal: who’s likely to catch the next prescription wave, and who might be forced to cut prices.
Novo reported that CagriSema led to 23% weight loss over 84 weeks, compared with 25.5% for tirzepatide—the active ingredient in Lilly’s Zepbound obesity drug. In this open-label trial, both patients and researchers were aware of which treatments were being given, a factor that can influence results. The study did not meet its primary endpoint: CagriSema failed to demonstrate non-inferiority to tirzepatide for weight loss. (Novo Nordisk)
It was a tough session for stocks across the board. All three benchmarks—the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow—closed off by more than 1% as tariff worries resurfaced. Still, healthcare names bucked the slide, with Lilly’s advance giving the group a lift. (Reuters)
“This is a worst-case scenario for Novo,” Markus Manns of Union Investment, which owns stakes in both firms, told Reuters. For investors, even if the gap “may seem like a minor difference,” it’s “very significant,” said Nordnet’s Per Hansen. (Reuters)
The timing isn’t great for Novo. With patents on Wegovy set to run out after 2030, CagriSema is positioned as the next act—and investors are already tracking if it can stand up to Lilly’s tirzepatide lineup.
Novo pushed back, insisting there’s more upside for the drug. “We are pleased with the weight loss of 23% for CagriSema,” said Martin Holst Lange, the company’s R&D chief, in the announcement. He flagged upcoming trials at higher doses already underway.
Novo is aiming for an FDA verdict on CagriSema by late 2026. The company’s lining up a higher-dose phase 3 trial, set to kick off in the back half of 2026. There’s also the REDEFINE 11 trial, with results slated for the first half of 2027—so investors now have a defined schedule for what’s next.
Lilly notched a regulatory victory Monday, announcing FDA approval for a four-dose KwikPen version of Zepbound. The new device delivers a full month’s supply and will be offered to cash-paying customers at $299 per month for the 2.5 mg dose. (Reuters)
That’s another angle for Lilly in its rivalry with Novo’s Wegovy, which U.S. patients get as a single-dose autoinjector once a week. The timing coincides with drugmakers and insurers pressing for broader access and price relief, following two years of supply issues and high costs.
The trial, though, doesn’t close the book. Novo flagged the open-label setup as a possible advantage for tirzepatide, and it’s now staking hopes on higher-dose combos to shift things—analysts, for their part, aren’t in agreement about how plausible that sounds. Should the rivalry heat up, both firms face a clear risk: the market might balloon, but their grip on pricing loosens.
Traders now turn to see if Lilly maintains momentum as Tuesday’s U.S. cash session opens, while eyes are also on whatever dosing specifics or trial updates Novo decides to share. Beyond that, the next concrete catalysts are Novo’s higher-dose study kickoff, expected in the latter half of 2026, and the FDA’s decision window set for late 2026.
