NEW YORK, May 13, 2026, 15:14 EDT
Late Wednesday, U.S. energy names split direction. Exxon Mobil managed a slight 0.4% gain, but Chevron dropped 0.5% and ConocoPhillips shed 0.6%. Oil stuck above $100 a barrel, but concerns about inflation and interest rates kept enthusiasm in check. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund slipped 0.1% as of 2:59 p.m. EDT.
The split is significant—energy stocks aren’t just tracking crude prices anymore. Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude held above $100, though oil edged down during the session. According to Reuters, traders digested the prospect of U.S. rate hikes and eyed the Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing.
Supply is holding firm on the tight side. The International Energy Agency projects global oil demand shrinking by 420,000 barrels a day this year. Still, supply disruptions are significant—Gulf production took a hit after the Strait of Hormuz closed, and the IEA sees worldwide output averaging 3.9 million bpd lower in 2026.
Energy bulls found a glimmer as U.S. crude inventories dropped by 4.3 million barrels to 452.9 million for the week ending May 8, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Gasoline stocks also moved lower, down 4.1 million barrels. Crude exports? Up 742,000 barrels per day, the EIA data showed.
The major integrated oil companies remain right in the thick of the action. State Street’s numbers put Exxon at the top of XLE’s holdings—22.47% as of May 12. Chevron comes next with 16.58%, and then ConocoPhillips at 6.87%. Those three names together steer a big part of the sector’s daily swings.
Macro forces are weighing. April’s U.S. producer prices shot up 1.4%—a four-year high for any single month—as crude supply disruptions near Hormuz spilled over into broader inflation. Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, told Reuters the “earnings narrative has won out” since early April, but he cautioned investors not to lose sight of persistent inflation and high rates. Reuters
These days, energy-stock calls are tangled up with rate forecasts. UBS Global Wealth Management just postponed its outlook for Federal Reserve cuts, now eyeing December 2026 and March 2027. “Conditions for a September move have not yet been met,” analysts including Andrew Dubinsky said in a note. Reuters
Prediction markets are leaning heavily in one direction. According to a DeFi Rate feed that pulls data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and several others, there’s a 97.5% implied probability the Fed will leave rates untouched at its June 16-17 meeting. Breaking it out: Kalshi comes in at 96.5%, Polymarket shows 97.7%. Over on Polymarket, a separate contract is pricing the odds of a Fed rate hike by 2026 at 33%.
Crude’s climb continues to fuel expectations for better earnings. According to LSEG I/B/E/S data cited by Reuters, analysts are looking for European energy-sector profits to jump nearly 50% in the first quarter. Barclays equity strategist Magesh Kumar Chandrasekaran chalked the wave of “strong upgrades in the energy sector” up to oil’s surge. Reuters
The trouble comes if oil prices climb so much they weigh on demand or lock interest rates in place. Reuters pointed out the S&P 500 energy index is carving out a head-and-shoulders top—a formation chart watchers eye for reversals. A drop under 820, the report says, might spell out a sharper retreat.
On the demand side, OPEC now expects global oil demand to grow by 1.17 million bpd in 2026—down from its earlier 1.38 million bpd projection. The group pointed to fallout from the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz effectively closing, although it’s not predicting a drop in demand, just a slower climb.
Energy stocks are caught between two timeframes at the moment: the near-term pull from crude prices topping $100 and falling inventories, and the longer-term pressures tied to inflation, interest rates, and uncertainty around Gulf supply coming back online. So Exxon’s slight uptick doesn’t really point to a sector-wide move—it’s more of a nod to big-balance-sheet names.
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