EV Stocks Today (Dec. 11, 2025): Tesla, Rivian, Lucid and NIO React to ‘EV Winter’ Fears and Robo‑Taxi Hopes

Electric‑vehicle (EV) stocks on the U.S. market are trading through a tug‑of‑war today between two powerful narratives: a looming “EV winter” and a long‑term story built on autonomy, AI and global adoption.

On December 11, 2025, the spotlight is on Tesla (TSLA), Rivian (RIVN), Lucid Group (LCID) and NIO (NIO) as Wall Street digests fresh downgrades, new long‑term forecasts and a flurry of autonomy‑focused announcements.

EV stocks today: quick snapshot (U.S. market, Dec. 11, 2025)

(Intraday prices are approximate, based on latest U.S. market data this afternoon.)

Tesla (TSLA) is trading around $442 per share, down about 2% on the day, as analysts debate whether its $1.4 trillion valuation can really be justified by AI, robo‑taxis and robots. ^[1]
Rivian (RIVN) sits near $16.60, off roughly 5%, after a fresh Morgan Stanley downgrade to “Underweight” with a $12 price target, and as investors watch the company’s first “Autonomy & AI Day” event. ^[2]
Lucid (LCID) trades near $12.90, hovering just above its 52‑week low, still under pressure after Morgan Stanley slashed its price target from $30 to $10 and Zacks reiterated a Sell stance. ^[3]
NIO (NIO) is roughly flat‑to‑slightly higher at about $5.10, with a new long‑term forecast from 24/7 Wall St. calling for modest upside in 2025 but potentially a 368% gain by 2030 if growth targets are met. ^[4]

Behind the tape, the macro story is shifting: global EV adoption continues to grow at a fast clip, yet U.S. EV makers are being hit by expiring tax incentives, slower domestic demand and aggressive competition, prompting some on Wall Street to warn of a multi‑year “EV winter.” ^[5]

From EV boom to “EV winter”: what’s changed in the backdrop?

Globally, the structural story still looks bullish:

A recent industry overview notes that the global EV market is expected to grow at around 26.8% compound annual growth and reach 34.8 million vehicles sold annually by 2030. ^[6]
The International Energy Agency data cited in the same report suggests global EV sales could top 20 million units in 2025, more than a quarter of all auto sales. ^[7]
Analysts at S&P Global Mobility say 2025 is the year “more mainstream electric vehicles” hit the market, with affordability and charging infrastructure still the key swing factors for mass adoption. ^[8]

But in the United States, sentiment has chilled sharply in the last few weeks:

Morgan Stanley’s new auto analyst, Andrew Percoco, has downgraded Tesla, Rivian and Lucid while simultaneously upgrading General Motors (GM), arguing that the industry faces an “EV winter” into 2026. ^[9]
The bank cites a projected 20% drop in U.S. EV volumes in 2026 and a slide in pure battery‑electric share to about 6.5% of the U.S. market, in part due to the September 30 elimination of the $7,500 federal EV tax creditunder the Trump administration. ^[10]
At the same time, a new insurance industry release today notes that EV collision claims have rebounded as expiring U.S. tax incentives drive record sales, implying a pull‑forward of demand before subsidies disappear. ^[11]

So today’s moves in EV stocks are happening against a backdrop where:

Global EV adoption is still growing fast – but the U.S. policy and profit picture has turned more complicated, especially for unprofitable pure‑play EV makers.

Tesla (TSLA): robo‑taxis, FSD Version 14 and valuation tensions

Price today: about $442.43, down roughly 2% intraday.

1. Long‑term forecasts still see big upside

A fresh Tesla price‑prediction report from 24/7 Wall St. published today lays out an aggressive long‑term path for the stock: ^[12]

Wall Street’s 12‑month consensus price target stands near $393.29, actually below today’s price, implying short‑term downside.
24/7 Wall St.’s own base‑case year‑end 2025 target is $351.73, also below current levels, but the article models explosive growth after that:
- Projected revenue rising from about $112 billion in 2025 to $297 billion by 2030.
- Normalized EPS climbing from $1.91 in 2025 to $11.24 by 2030.
- A 2030 price target of $1,116.86, which would represent roughly 147% upside from around today’s share price if achieved.

The report frames Tesla as still outperforming the S&P 500 over the last six months but acknowledges a much more volatile 2025, including weak China sales and softer European registrations. ^[13]

2. The $1.4 trillion AI question: can FSD justify it?

A separate deep dive from TipRanks today focuses on whether Tesla’s $1.4 trillion valuation can be justified by its AI and autonomy ambitions. Key points: ^[14]

Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu estimates that robo‑taxis and humanoid robots together account for roughly $850 billion of Tesla’s value, with robo‑taxis the largest piece.
Tesla launched its robo‑taxi service in Austin earlier this year, but rides still require a human safety monitor in the front seat – a major barrier to profitability and regulatory acceptance.
Piper Sandler’s Alexander Potter sees promise in Full Self‑Driving (FSD) Version 14, citing crowdsourced data showing about 9,487 miles between human “critical disengagements”, a huge improvement over earlier versions.
GLJ Research’s Gordon Johnson counters that the data is insufficient and notes Alphabet’s Waymo is already running driverless service with more than 17,000 miles between critical disengagements, arguing Tesla is still behind.

TipRanks notes that Tesla’s analyst consensus rating is now just “Hold”, with 12 Buys, 12 Holds and 10 Sells, and an average 12‑month price target of $383.54, implying about 15% downside from the last close. ^[15]

3. “EV winter” vs. multi‑business growth

Layered on top of today’s AI debate is Morgan Stanley’s broader downgrade of the EV space:

The bank cut Tesla from Buy to Hold, arguing that AI‑driven upside is largely priced in, with the stock now very sensitive to any stumble in robo‑taxis or robot ambitions. ^[16]
Another 24/7 Wall St. piece today asks what would have to go right for Tesla to double again from here, concluding that:
- Core EV sales and margins would need to re‑accelerate, helped by lower rates and improved efficiency.
- Robo‑taxis would need meaningful, high‑margin monetization, beyond pilot programs in a few cities.
- Energy storage and robotics (Optimus) would have to evolve into stand‑alone profit centers, not just “stories.” ^[17]

Put simply, Tesla remains the EV leader and a popular ETF holding, but short‑term downside risk and long‑term binary outcomes around autonomy are front‑and‑center in today’s analysis. ^[18]

Rivian (RIVN): downgrade pain and “Autonomy & AI Day” spotlight

Price today: about $16.64, down roughly 5% intraday after earlier gains this month.

1. Morgan Stanley turns sharply cautious

Rivian is one of the biggest casualties of Morgan Stanley’s new EV view:

The bank downgraded Rivian from “Equal Weight” to “Underweight” and set a $12 price target, flagging:
- Risks around the company’s crucial R2 launch in 2026,
- A more hostile EV market without U.S. tax credits,
- And heavy cash burn stretching well into the second half of the decade. ^[19]
A follow‑up note highlighted expected free‑cash‑flow burn of about $4.2 billion in 2026 and a $2.9 billion adjusted EBIT loss, underscoring how dependent Rivian is on new capital and flawless execution. ^[20]

Market data tracked by StockStory shows Rivian’s shares have had 31 daily moves larger than 5% over the last year, illustrating how sentiment tends to swing hard on each new headline. ^[21]

2. Today’s “Autonomy & AI Day”

Trying to seize the narrative, Rivian is hosting its first “Autonomy & AI Day” today at its Palo Alto offices, streamed on YouTube. ^[22]

Coverage ahead of the event highlights:

CEO RJ Scaringe is expected to outline an end‑to‑end autonomy stack, combining real‑world driving data with a large driving model.
The company is emphasizing technology development over near‑term robotaxi commercialization, positioning autonomy as a long‑term differentiator for its trucks and SUVs. ^[23]
Ahead of the event, shares were down about 6% to $16.45, but still up roughly 3.8% for December, reflecting how investors remain cautiously optimistic despite the downgrade. ^[24]

3. Delivery and growth expectations

Recent commentary from The Motley Fool and Zacks sketches out the fundamental picture: ^[25]

Rivian expects 2025 deliveries of 41,500–43,500 vehicles, slightly narrowing earlier guidance.
Analysts see 2025 revenue growing about 8% to $5.37 billion, with Zacks’ 2026 estimates implying 25% revenue growth and 14% EPS improvement year over year.
Despite those growth numbers, Rivian remains unprofitable and heavily capital‑intensive, a tough combination as Wall Street braces for an EV slowdown. ^[26]

Bottom line for today: Rivian is trying to convince the market that its software and autonomy roadmap can justify staying patient through an ugly cash‑burn phase – just as one of the most influential banks on Wall Street is warning that the golden era of blank‑check funding for EV startups may be over, at least for now.

Lucid (LCID): autonomy bets vs. harsh cash‑flow math

Price today: about $12.87, down slightly and not far from its recent lows.

1. A fresh Zacks deep dive: strong tech, weak financials

A detailed Zacks analysis, republished on Nasdaq this morning, lays out the case for and against Lucid: ^[27]

On the positive side:

Lucid is “leaning hard into autonomy”:
- In Q3 2025 it shipped engineering vehicles to Nuro for Uber’s planned robotaxi program, with a targeted San Francisco launch in 2026.
- It also unveiled a new collaboration with NVIDIA to co‑develop Level 4 consumer autonomy features for future models. ^[28]
The upcoming Gravity SUV and a midsize platform are slated to receive major driver‑assist and autonomy software upgrades by late 2026, aiming to push average selling prices higher. ^[29]
Lucid’s new Atlas powertrain aims to cut costs, reduce parts count and support autonomy‑ready hardware, potentially improving margins once volumes ramp. ^[30]

On the negative side:

GAAP gross margin in Q3 2025 was about –99%, with tariffs alone hurting margins by roughly 13 percentage points.
Free cash flow for the quarter was –$955.5 million, and full‑year capex is still tracking in the $1–$1.2 billionrange. ^[31]
Supply‑chain volatility in components like magnets and semiconductors adds more uncertainty to the margin recovery story. ^[32]

Zacks assigns Lucid a Rank #4 (Sell) with a VGM Score of F, concluding that the stock remains firmly in “prove‑it mode” despite seven straight quarters of record deliveries. ^[33]

2. Morgan Stanley’s EV winter downgrade hits hard

Lucid has also been at the center of Morgan Stanley’s EV rethink:

The bank downgraded Lucid to Underweight/Sell and cut its price target from $30 to $10, explicitly citing a longer and riskier path to profitability and a U.S. EV demand slowdown once tax credits disappeared. ^[34]
Barron’s and other outlets describe Lucid as one of the most vulnerable EV makers to an “EV winter,” given its luxury price point and continued heavy losses. ^[35]
A Benzinga review earlier this week noted Lucid was among the weakest performers on Tuesday, with shares down about 2.9% to $12.39, near their 52‑week low, as traders processed the downgrade. ^[36]

For investors watching today’s tape, Lucid is increasingly seen as a high‑beta, high‑risk EV autonomy play: its robotaxi partnerships and Level 4 ambitions could pay off in the next cycle, but cash‑flow and dilution risks are front‑of‑mind right now.

NIO (NIO): long‑term bullish forecasts amid tariff and profit headwinds

Price today: about $5.11, modestly higher on the day.

A new 24/7 Wall St. forecast for Nio stock from today tries to reconcile the stock’s volatility with its growth potential. ^[37]

1. 2025–2030 price roadmap

Key points from the forecast: ^[38]

NIO shares are up 15.4% year to date, but they’ve fallen 25% in the last month amid tariff noise and a mixed Q3.
Of 27 analysts covering the stock, about half rate it a Buy, with a mean 12‑month price target of $6.67 – roughly 32% above the current share price; the high target sits at $9.10.
24/7 Wall St.’s own base‑case targets are:
- $5.05 for 2025, only slightly above today’s level,
- $7.34 in 2026,
- $13.80 in 2027,
- $24.01 in 2028,
- $16.45 in 2029 (reflecting a possible mid‑cycle slowdown), and
- $23.56 by 2030, implying about 368% upside over five years if everything goes right.

2. Growth drivers: battery swap, international expansion, premium brand

The same report emphasizes three structural tailwinds: ^[39]

Battery‑swap technology & Battery‑as‑a‑Service (BaaS):
NIO is a pioneer in swappable battery packs and plans to build over 4,000 swap stations by the end of 2025, with about 1,000 outside China, aiming to ease range anxiety and lower upfront costs.
Rising NEV demand in China:
NIO expects 2025 vehicle deliveries to roughly double 2023 levels (~165,000 units), yet that would still be only about 2% of the Chinese NEV market, leaving significant room to grow.
International expansion:
The company is rolling out swap stations and service centers in Europe and positioning its high‑range, high‑tech models (some with 600‑plus‑mile range) to appeal to premium younger buyers.

Still, the article notes that NIO’s heavy R&D spend (about a quarter of revenue) and intense competition from Tesla and BYD could keep its valuation discounted versus North American peers, even if revenue continues to expand.

Legacy automakers: GM and Ford as EV “winter” winners?

While pure‑play EV stocks struggle today, some legacy automakers with strong internal‑combustion and hybrid businesses are seeing more love from Wall Street.

General Motors (GM) was up modestly today near $80.70 after Morgan Stanley upgraded it from Hold to Buyand hiked its price target from $54 to $90. The bank argues that GM’s profit from conventional vehicles could actually benefit if EV adoption slows, giving it more breathing room to roll out electrification at a measured pace. ^[40]
Ford (F), another top‑10 global EV name, remains a heavily held ETF constituent and a key U.S. EV player, though it is also toning down some near‑term EV capex in favor of hybrids. ^[41]

A December 11 round‑up of top EV stocks notes that Tesla, Ford and GM are three of the most widely held EV‑linked names in U.S. ETFs, underscoring how investors increasingly seek diversified exposure to both EV and non‑EV profit streams rather than betting solely on unprofitable startups. ^[42]

What today’s action means for EV‑stock investors

For anyone tracking or trading EV stocks today, a few themes stand out:

Policy risk has become central.
The loss of U.S. federal tax credits and talk of an “EV winter” show how quickly the demand picture can change when subsidies and regulations shift. ^[43]
Autonomy is now the primary bull thesis – and a big binary risk.
From Tesla’s FSD Version 14 and robo‑taxis in Austin to Rivian’s Autonomy & AI Day and Lucid’s Nvidia‑powered Level 4 roadmap, software and AI are increasingly what bulls are paying for. But regulators, safety data and actual monetization are still big unknowns. ^[44]
Balance sheets matter more in a colder EV market.
Companies like Rivian and Lucid with multi‑billion‑dollar cash‑burn profiles are facing tougher scrutiny now that capital isn’t free and growth is slowing. Tesla and NIO, while not immune, have more scale and diversified revenue to work with. ^[45]
Global vs. U.S. divergence is real.
Global EV sales are still growing rapidly, especially in China, even as Wall Street warns of a U.S. slowdown. That’s good news for NIO and other Chinese EV makers, but tariffs and political risk mean the U.S. listing premium isn’t guaranteed. ^[46]
Diversified auto exposure may be back in fashion.
The upgrade of GM and continued interest in Ford and hybrid‑heavy strategies suggest some investors are rotating toward companies that can earn good money selling ICE and hybrid vehicles today while scaling EVs more cautiously. ^[47]

Final note and disclaimer

Nothing in today’s article is investment advice. EV stocks remain high‑risk, high‑volatility assets where outcomes depend on factors that are hard to predict: regulations, technology breakthroughs, consumer adoption, credit markets and geopolitics.

If you’re considering positions in TSLA, RIVN, LCID, NIO or legacy automakers like GM and F, it’s important to:

Look beyond one‑day moves and read the full underlying research and earnings reports.
Stress‑test your thesis under slower‑than‑expected EV adoption or prolonged “EV winter” scenarios.
Match your exposure to your risk tolerance and time horizon, and consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser before making major allocation decisions.