Global stocks started the week on firmer footing on Monday, 24 November 2025, as investors bet the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December, even while a record U.S. data blackout and fragile geopolitics keep nerves on edge.
Global stocks climb as traders price in a December Fed cut
Global equities kicked off the new week higher, extending a late Friday rebound on Wall Street that followed days of heavy selling in U.S. tech and other growth names.
- Europe’s STOXX 600 index was up around 0.5% in early trade after losing 2.2% last week, with tech, pharmaceuticals and banks leading gains.
- U.S. stock futures pointed to further recovery, with Nasdaq futures up roughly 0.8% and S&P 500 futures up about 0.55%.
- In Asia, MSCI’s broad index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed about 1%, tracking Wall Street’s late bounce.
The catalyst: traders now see roughly a 60% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting, after New York Fed President John Williams signaled that borrowing costs could start to come down “in the near term.” Reuters+1
Goldman Sachs’ economics team is pencilling in a December cut followed by two more moves in March and June 2026, which would take the federal funds rate down to around 3.0–3.25%, and argue that risks next year are tilted toward more easing if inflation continues to cool and the labor market weakens further.
Not everyone is convinced: economists at Generali Investments warn that markets may be “too optimistic,” expecting nearly four cuts in 2026, while they see only about 50 basis points of easing by mid‑year. Reuters
After last week’s rout, Wall Street sees “some hope”
Last week’s U.S. sell‑off, driven by worries about stretched valuations in artificial intelligence and other high‑growth sectors, rattled global risk sentiment. According to CNBC’s Daily Open newsletter, the tone has shifted from outright fear to “some hope” as Friday’s rally suggested bargain hunters are returning after the rout. Blockchain News+1
On Friday:
- The S&P 500 rose about 1%,
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained roughly 1.1%,
- And traders rotated back into beaten‑up names after several sessions of sharp declines.
Technical analysts note that small‑caps, tracked by the Russell 2000, saw strong accumulation on Friday even though they remain below key resistance levels – a pattern that could either mark the start of a more durable rebound or simply a pause in a broader correction.
The big question hanging over U.S. markets this week: is this a dead‑cat bounce after an AI‑driven mini‑bubble, or the beginning of a new year‑end rally powered by easier monetary policy?
Asia opens cautiously higher as tech and AI names lead
Asian markets took their cue from Wall Street’s late‑week turn:
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed around 1.8%, boosted by a jump of more than 5% in Alibaba, after strong interest in its Qwen AI app and ongoing enthusiasm for China’s domestic AI ecosystem.
- China’s Shanghai Composite was roughly flat, as lingering concerns over growth and property kept enthusiasm in check.
- South Korea’s Kospi slipped about 0.2% following heavy selling in auto names, even as global risk appetite improved.
- Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday, leaving the yen to trade in global FX markets without the usual anchor of Tokyo equities.
Bloomberg’s latest Markets Wrap notes that Asian investors are broadly adopting a “cautiously upbeat” stance: tech shares are lifting indices, but sentiment is still sensitive to incoming U.S. data and any further volatility in crypto and AI‑linked stocks. Bloomberg Law News+1
Europe catches up while defence shares sag on Ukraine peace signals
European equities spent the morning playing catch‑up with Friday’s U.S. rebound:
- The STOXX 600 rose about 0.5%, led by technology, healthcare and banking stocks.
- Shares in major defence contractors fell between 1% and 4% after fresh signs that Washington and Kyiv are pushing an updated peace framework to end the war with Russia.
According to Reuters, the U.S. and Ukraine are working on a revised proposal to end the conflict after an earlier draft was criticized in Kyiv and European capitals as too generous to Moscow. The prospect of a deal that could eventually ease sanctions on Russian energy has:
- Pulled down defence stocks, as investors reassess the outlook for long‑term military spending; and
- Weighed on oil prices, with traders bracing for the possibility of more Russian supply hitting global markets.
European natural gas prices also slid to an 18‑month low, reflecting both optimism about peace prospects and comfortable storage levels heading into winter.
Fed cut hopes collide with a “data fog” after record U.S. shutdown
One unusual feature of this market cycle: the Federal Reserve is being asked to make critical decisions with less data than usual.
A record U.S. government shutdown that ended earlier this month has left major gaps in the economic picture. The Bureau of Labor Statistics was forced to cancel the October consumer price index release because it couldn’t collect data during the closure, leaving policymakers with fewer hard numbers on inflation just as they debate whether to cut again in December.
That “data fog” is one reason some economists think the Fed might wait until January to move, even if it signals an easing bias at its December meeting. Reuters+1
Still, futures markets are clear:
- Pricing implies around a 60% probability of a quarter‑point cut next month.
- The curve discounts nearly four cuts over the next year – more than many economists consider realistic if inflation proves sticky.
For investors, that sets up a delicate trade: any data or Fed commentary that signals a slower easing path could quickly unwind today’s optimism.
Currencies: dollar softens, yen on intervention watch
In foreign exchange, the U.S. dollar is easing against most major counterparts as traders lean into the Fed‑cut narrative – but the move is far from uniform.
- The euro nudged higher to around $1.15,
- Sterling hovered near $1.31 ahead of U.K. finance minister Rachel Reeves’ first major budget on Wednesday.
The standout laggard is the Japanese yen:
- Dollar/yen traded near ¥156.9, its weakest in about 10 months.
- The yen has dropped roughly 1.8% against the dollar so far in November, making it the worst‑performing major currency this month.
Japan’s finance minister Satsuki Katayama has stepped up verbal warnings against excessive currency moves, prompting speculation that Tokyo could intervene again after previous bouts of yen weakness. FX strategists warn, however, that intervention can slow the pace of depreciation but is unlikely to permanently reverse a move driven by fundamentals like ultra‑low Japanese interest rates and worries over the country’s fiscal position.
Commodities and crypto: oil slips, gas and gold steady, Bitcoin gives back gains
Oil:
- Brent crude futures slipped about 0.5% to roughly $62.3 per barrel, pressured by the tentative progress on a Ukraine peace framework and the prospect of more Russian supply if sanctions eventually ease.
Gold:
- Spot gold was little changed, holding above $4,000 an ounce as rate‑cut bets offset the drag from a slightly softer dollar.
Natural gas:
- European gas prices fell below €30 per megawatt‑hour, the lowest level in about a year and a half, on ample inventories and milder weather alongside the peace‑talk optimism.
Crypto:
- Bitcoin has had a choppy November. Bloomberg’s latest wrap notes that U.S. equity futures rose while Bitcoin fell for the fifth time in six sessions, surrendering part of its weekend rebound.
- AP reporting earlier in the day put Bitcoin back near $87,000 after last week’s sharp slump, underlining just how volatile the largest cryptocurrency remains.
Crypto analysts also point out that U.S. stock volatility has spilled over into digital assets, with the VIX spike during the rout coinciding with heavy selling and liquidations in Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives.
What investors are watching next
With markets starting the week on a more positive note, the focus now turns to whether the data – and the Fed – will justify the optimism. Key events to watch in the days ahead include:
- U.S. economic data
- Delayed retail sales and producer price (PPI) releases, which will help fill in gaps left by the shutdown‑related data void.
- Any substitute inflation indicators that Fed officials highlight in speeches.
- Federal Reserve communication
- Remarks from policymakers that might clarify whether December is a live meeting for a cut or more likely a staging ground for January.
- U.K. budget (Wednesday)
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves will present her first full budget, watched closely for signals on fiscal policy, tax changes and growth plans that could shake sterling and gilts.
- Ukraine peace talks and European security stocks
- Further confirmation of progress – or setbacks – in U.S.–Ukraine negotiations could move defence shares, energy prices and broader European risk sentiment.
- AI and tech valuations
- After weeks of violent swings in AI‑linked names, traders will be watching whether last week’s sell‑off has reset expectations enough, or if another leg lower is coming.
For now, the global picture on 24 November 2025 is one of cautious optimism: rate‑cut hopes are giving battered stocks room to breathe, while a sliding dollar is easing some financial conditions. But with incomplete data, fragile geopolitics and lingering valuation worries, markets are only ever one surprising headline away from another bout of turbulence.
