NEW YORK, March 22, 2026, 13:07 EDT
Gold kicks off the week under pressure—spot prices slumped 1.8% to $4,563.64 an ounce late Friday, locking in a third consecutive weekly decline. U.S. gold futures ended at $4,574.90. Silver, platinum, and palladium were hit as well. Metals were “especially wobbly” after this week’s drop on rate-hike jitters, according to independent trader Tai Wong. With fresh U.S.-Iran threats surfacing Sunday, traders are bracing for what could be a jumpy market open. Reuters
Gold isn’t acting like a straightforward war hedge right now. Inflation nerves are flaring up on the back of higher energy prices, and that’s shifting rate expectations upward—bad news for bullion, since it doesn’t offer interest. The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% last week, bumped its 2026 inflation outlook, and flagged the risk that more expensive fuel could bleed into core prices.
That shift has been swift. Reuters noted Friday that futures traders now see about a 25% probability the Fed lifts rates by December—a big swing from the recent consensus for cuts. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.384% as markets began bracing for tighter policy, not looser.
So, markets have this week’s calendar under a microscope. According to Reuters, Tuesday brings those flash PMIs—early business-activity readings that could flag whether companies are really starting to worry about stagflation, that mix of sluggish growth and stubborn inflation. The Fed’s own schedule is packed: Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak Tuesday, followed by Barr, Jefferson, Cook and Miran later on. Over at the New York Fed, Tuesday features U.S. consumer confidence data, durable goods are on tap for Wednesday, jobless claims arrive Thursday, and the Michigan consumer sentiment wrap-up lands Friday.
The weekend brought no calm. U.S. President Donald Trump gave Iran a 48-hour deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening strikes on its power stations if it refused. Iran, for its part, threatened retaliation against U.S.-connected energy and desalination targets, warning the waterway would stay closed if hit. Brent finished Friday at $112.19 a barrel, the highest since July 2022. IG analyst Tony Sycamore described Trump’s move as a “48-hour ticking time bomb of elevated uncertainty” hanging over markets. Reuters
Spot gold is down over 10% since the war kicked off on Feb. 28, but physical demand still hasn’t put in a reliable floor. In India, dealer discounts came in to as little as $75 per ounce versus $83 the week before, festival buying pushing them tighter, yet demand stayed on the soft side. Over in China, gold premiums slipped to $10-$22, off from last week’s $20-$30. Bernard Sin at MKS PAMP flagged that while immediate buying in Shanghai is losing steam, longer-term interest appears steady.
Wall Street’s take bears watching, with gold recently moving in lockstep with the same inflation and growth themes steering equities and fixed income. “So fluid,” Chris Fasciano at Commonwealth Financial Network put it. Oil is calling the tune for the market’s response to the conflict, said Eric Kuby at North Star Investment Management. Reuters
Bears face a clear threat here—any fresh shock to shipping, energy infrastructure, or stocks could send money stampeding back into bullion fast. Still, there’s a flip side: should oil prices climb higher, the dollar hold steady, and bets against Fed rate cuts persist, gold may have a hard time translating global tensions into a real rally.
