NEW YORK, July 11, 2026, 12:09 (EDT)
Mattel Inc. NASDAQ:MAT closed Friday at $13.33, 1.1% higher, even after two price-target downgrades over two days. The stock ended the week nearly unchanged. It fell to a 52-week low at $12.73 on Thursday, but the S&P 500 added 1.2% for the week. U.S. markets were closed Saturday.
That flat reaction is what investors noticed. Mattel had bought back $200 million in stock by March 31 and kept its $400 million repurchase target for 2026. The $200 million left would buy around 15.0 million shares at Friday’s close, or about 5.2% of the company’s 290.6 million shares outstanding at quarter-end. The shares trade at $13.33, about 10 times the midpoint of Mattel’s adjusted 2026 EPS guidance, which runs from $1.27 to $1.39. Adjusted earnings leave out things management says are not part of normal business. CEO Ynon Kreiz said in April that Mattel was “seeing top-line acceleration in the second quarter to date”—top line is revenue—while CFO Paul Ruh said, “We expect to achieve our full year 2026 guidance.” Mattel Investor Relations
Goldman Sachs slapped a Sell on Mattel Thursday, with analyst Stephen Laszczyk dropping his price target to $12 from $15. On Friday, Citi’s James Hardiman held his Hold rating but knocked his target down to $15 from $16. Fresh calls now bracket the stock.
| July analyst call | Rating | Price target | Implied move from $13.33 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Laszczyk at Goldman Sachs | Sell | $12 | -10.0% |
| James Hardiman at Citi | Hold | $15 | +12.5% |
Laszczyk’s team called Mattel “an execution story with a higher than average degree of operational complexity” in the next six to 12 months. The team pointed to volatile consumer demand, geopolitical risk, rivals in the toy sector, and the challenge of delivering on trading cards, collectibles, and video games. Goldman now values the stock at eight times its estimated 2027 EPS, down from 10 times before. That multiple measures price against expected annual earnings per share. TradingPedia
Mixed week for toy stocks. Mattel outperformed Hasbro Inc. NASDAQ:HAS over the past week, but both trailed the S&P 500. Investing.com Mattel’s Friday move happened on 2.99 million shares — about 35% under its 4.59 million average daily volume. That’s not exactly major buying.
| Security | Friday close | Friday move | Week change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mattel | $13.33 | up 1.1% | down 0.1% |
| Hasbro | $78.96 | rose 2.0% | fell 1.5% |
| S&P 500 | 7,575.39 | added 0.4% | gained 1.2% |
Change measured from July 2 close to July 10.
The buyback doesn’t set a bottom. Net sales in the first quarter rose 4% to $862.2 million, but gross margin dropped 450 basis points to 44.9%. Operating cash flow swung from a $24.8 million inflow to a $22.9 million outflow. Cash ended the quarter at $866 million, down from $1.24 billion, hit by buybacks, the Mattel163 deal, and capital spending. If tariffs, inflation or weak demand drag on, more earnings cuts could follow, and capital returns may not cover them.
Markets have their eye on macro data this week. The June Consumer Price Index lands Tuesday, July 14, at 8:30 a.m. ET, a gauge of U.S. inflation. Retail sales for June come out Thursday, July 16, again at 8:30 a.m. ET. Mattel has its second-quarter numbers set for release on Tuesday, Aug. 4, just after 4 p.m. ET, with a call at 5 p.m.
Market took two new cuts but held above Thursday’s low. No rerating here. Mattel’s (MAT) story stays the same before Aug. 4: investors will watch if cheap valuation and buyback power can cover for the lack of the operating proof Goldman pointed out.
