NEW YORK, July 29, 2026, 12:02 EDT — U.S. markets trade lower after open
- By 11:45 a.m. EDT, Micron was down 5.4% at $776.13.
- Fiscal fourth-quarter projections expect revenue of $50 billion and a gross margin of 86%.
- Initial estimate: the price is roughly 6.7 times the annualized and 13-week-adjusted non-GAAP earnings for the fourth quarter.
Micron Technology declined 5.4% on Wednesday, pushing its losing streak over three sessions to roughly 15.8%. The stock slid 8.9% on Tuesday, following a 2.3% dip on Monday.
The drop runs counter to Micron’s near-term earnings outlook. The company projects fiscal fourth-quarter revenue to be 20.6% higher than the third quarter, while guidance for gross margin also lifts to approximately 86%.
This puts durability at the heart of investor concerns. Present demand is not the issue. The market is factoring in uncertainty over the longevity of peak pricing.
| Measure | Fiscal Q3 actual | Fiscal Q4 guide or market level | Change or signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $41.46 billion | $50.0 billion midpoint | Up 20.6% |
| GAAP gross margin | 84.6% | About 86% | Increase of 1.4 percentage points |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $25.11 | $31.00 midpoint | Rises 23.5% |
| Share-price move | — | $776.13 | Approximately -15.8% across three sessions |
| Indicative run-rate P/E | — | About 6.7 times | Early, 13-week basis |
Micron’s disclosed figures are sourced from its official release and filings with regulators. The market computation is based on the intraday share price and the midpoint of guidance. Micron’s fourth quarter spans 14 weeks instead of the standard 13.
The 6.7-times number is not a consensus multiple. It adjusts the $31 earnings guidance to a 13-week period, and then annualizes that result. This is a stress test rather than a projection.
Peak-cycle risk appears within the third-quarter results. DRAM average selling prices climbed in the low-260% range, while NAND prices advanced in the mid-310% range. The surge was led by pricing rather than volume.
Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra believes contracts can help ease the impact of that cycle. He stated that multi-year deals should “significantly enhance the durability and predictability” of Micron’s results. SEC
China introduced new bearish sentiment. Shares of CXMT Corp SHA:688825 jumped 466% during its first day of trading in Shanghai on Monday, following an $8.6 billion fundraising. In 2025, the company held an estimated 7.7% share of the global DRAM market.
The risk varies within different segments of memory. Cameron Systermans of Mercer Investments described CXMT as an emerging rival in commodity DRAM. However, he noted that the company is still “years behind” in the area of high-bandwidth memory, or HBM. Reuters
SK Hynix KRX:000660 issued a fresh caution, posting all-time high quarterly revenue and a 76% operating margin. However, its stock dropped 9.6% as the results failed to meet high market expectations.
U.S. storage stocks continued to face selling. SanDisk NASDAQ:SNDK dropped 7.2% on Wednesday. Western Digital NASDAQ:WDC eased 0.2%, following a 6.9% decrease recorded on Tuesday.
Bullish reports released Wednesday portray the drop as a buying chance. One analyst raised Micron’s rating, while another projected a $2,000 stock price by 2030. Both outlooks are based on ongoing shortages and a successful HBM4E production scale-up.
Initial estimates show fiscal 2026 revenue at approximately $128.96 billion based on nine months of actual results and the midpoint for Q4. To triple this by fiscal 2030, revenue would need to hit close to $386.88 billion, implying about 31.6% yearly growth over four years.
That challenge accounts for the divided view on the stock. Micron appears inexpensive based on present earnings. The valuation looks higher if margins return to typical levels before demand matches capacity.
Risks: Commodity DRAM prices may come under pressure from expanding Chinese production prior to a slowdown in HBM demand. A reduction in spending or a potential HBM4E delay would undermine the bullish outlook. Conversely, extended shortages and longer contract terms could sustain all-time high margins.
Currently, the selloff reflects skepticism towards duration, rather than concerns over the fourth quarter. Investors require evidence that contracts will maintain pricing as fresh supply comes to market.
