New York, March 12, 2026, 14:07 (EDT)
Oil surged Thursday, with Brent crude flirting with the $100 mark once again after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed and tanker attacks in Iraqi waters rattled the market. Brent rose 8% to $99.38 as of 12:55 p.m. ET, after hitting as high as $101.59. U.S. West Texas Intermediate added 8.6%, reaching $94.81.
That’s significant—Hormuz sits just off Iran and usually sees nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude and refined oil move through, along with hefty shipments of LNG. According to the International Energy Agency, the conflict marks the largest supply shock the global oil market has ever seen, with world output projected to drop by 8 million barrels a day in March.
Governments are moving to soften the blow, but traders remain skeptical. On Wednesday, the IEA said it would tap emergency reserves for 400 million barrels, with the U.S. contributing 172 million. But those barrels won’t hit the market right away. “Not manageable without some demand destruction and much higher prices, unless the conflict ends,” said Gary Ross, chief executive at Black Gold Investors. Reuters
Banks are shifting their outlooks. Goldman Sachs bumped its Q4 2026 Brent and WTI targets to $71 and $67 a barrel—up from $66 and $62—citing a prolonged Hormuz disruption. The bank also warned that if shipments remain sharply down through March, daily prices could top the 2008 peak.
Refined fuel markets are feeling the pinch. According to U.S. government figures released Wednesday, gasoline supplies shrank by 3.7 million barrels last week while distillate inventories — which cover diesel and heating oil — slid by 1.3 million barrels, despite a 3.8 million-barrel build in crude. Drivers hurried to fill their tanks, said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho, as hopes for a quick end to the war faded.
Producers have limited options right now. TotalEnergies reported a 15% drop in oil and gas output due to shutdowns in the UAE, Qatar, and Iraq—marking the first time a major player has publicly confirmed broad outages in the UAE. Equinor, for its part, stated it can’t boost supply any further due to a lack of spare capacity.
Pressure built across the board. Global equities slipped, bond yields climbed, and Brent crude hit $100 for a short stretch. Monica Guerra, who leads U.S. policy over at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, flagged that stubbornly elevated oil prices threaten to muddy the Fed’s next steps—possibly forcing interest rates to stay elevated.
Even so, the direction isn’t set. The European Union played down any urgent oil-supply worries, pointing out that Norway and the U.S. remain its top crude sources. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright dismissed $200 oil as “unlikely,” floated the possibility of U.S. Navy escorts through the strait by month-end, and signaled support for a temporary Jones Act waiver to allow foreign vessels to move fuel between U.S. ports. According to Reuters, the record release from reserves can only paper over the problem if Middle East flows stay offline. Protection for shipping could pull prices back quickly, but if it falls through, another sharp run-up is possible. Reuters
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