New York, July 13, 2026, 11:05 EDT
UnitedHealth Group NYSE:UNH traded up 1.1% to $429.47 late Monday morning, ahead of earnings out Thursday. The coming results may answer near-term EPS questions but the stock price keeps the bigger valuation story going. At $429.47, investors are looking past Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.85. They’re effectively betting on about $25 per share in annual EPS by 2028.
UnitedHealth is set to report earnings before Thursday’s open. Analysts are looking for revenue of $110.76 billion and adjusted EPS of $4.85, which would be a 19% rise year over year. Sales are expected to fall around 1%. Options traders are betting on a 6.27% swing after the report, which puts the stock in a potential range between $402.54 and $456.40 based on Monday’s close.
Recent bullish calls are zeroing in on the Q1 reset. Adjusted EPS landed at $7.23, with the medical care ratio at 83.9% and operating cash flow at $8.9 billion. The company also raised its 2026 adjusted EPS target to above $18.25. That 83.9% ratio is the share of premium revenue paid toward treatment costs; lower is better for profits.
The short-term math works for now. If UnitedHealth hits consensus for Q2, it lands near $12.08 in adjusted EPS for the first half, or 66.2% of its full-year guidance floor. That leaves a little more than $6.17 to get through the last two quarters and meet the floor.
| Earnings bridge | Approximate EPS | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| First-quarter came in | $7.23 | Company reported |
| Wall Street second-quarter consensus | $4.85 | Market target for Thursday |
| Total EPS for first half, implied | $12.08 | Works out to 66.2% of 2026 low-end guide |
| Minimum second-half EPS needed | Over $6.17 | Enough to hit guidance, which is more than $18.25 |
| EPS number in Trefis’ 2028 call | $25.04 | Figure comes from $425.60 at a 17x multiple |
| Annual growth to reach 2028 from 2026 guide | 17.1% a year | Compound for two years |
The tougher part comes after December. Trefis puts UnitedHealth at 17 times its expected 2028 earnings, using a price-to-earnings ratio based on annual EPS. Its model sees $25.04 in 2028 earnings, and assumes annual growth of about 17.1% off UnitedHealth’s 2026 guidance floor. That’s in line with the 16.5% consensus for earnings growth Trefis cites, but the revenue-growth estimate is much lower at 4.3%. Most of the gains have to come from margin work, cost cutting, and share buybacks.
Investors are watching two key numbers. UnitedHealth’s first-quarter medical ratio was better than the 85.70% analyst forecast. But Optum, the health-services division, saw operating income drop 15% to $3.3 billion. Morningstar’s Julie Utterback said margins may hit bottom in 2025. CEO Stephen Hemsley called it a “solid quarter across all segments.” Evercore ISI’s Elizabeth Anderson said Optum Health looked to be recovering. Reuters
The focus isn’t just on UnitedHealth. Elevance Health NYSE:ELV is set to report Wednesday and CVS Health NYSE:CVS reports Aug. 5, both offering a look at whether the better cost trends are sector-wide. Elevance added 1.7% on Monday, CVS was up 1.6%. A healthcare-provider ETF is up nearly 19% this year. The S&P 500 is ahead about 11%.
Analysts leaned positive on Monday, but the wider view didn’t agree. Mizuho’s Ann Hynes upped her price target to $470 from $460. Wells Fargo’s Stephen Baxter raised his to $485 from $397. Both stayed at buy. But the average from 27 analysts sat at $420.46, which is under where the stock trades now. GuruFocus’ DCF model showed an even bigger spread.
| Valuation lens | Value or target | Move from $429.47 |
|---|---|---|
| GuruFocus earnings DCF | $323.72 | -24.6% |
| GuruFocus free-cash-flow DCF | $370.01 | -13.8% |
| 27-analyst average target | $420.46 | -2.1% |
| Mizuho target | $470.00 | +9.4% |
| Wells Fargo target | $485.00 | +12.9% |
| GuruFocus proprietary GF Value | $603.62 | +40.5% |
The downside risk isn’t hypothetical. Higher medical use, weaker government payments, and a slower pace at Optum, plus possible legal or regulatory actions, could push UnitedHealth off its 2028 earnings path—those are on its list of material risks. GuruFocus gives its DCF model zero out of five stars for predictability, and says even small tweaks to growth or discount rates can swing results a lot. If margins slip, the market debate could move toward the $370 free-cash-flow figure. If a turnaround fails, the $324 earnings estimate could be tougher to ignore.
Thursday’s results headline is likely to swing the stock. Bigger questions are if guidance goes up, the medical ratio stays solid, and Optum’s profit rebounds. A $4.85 result would hit the 2026 target. Investors buying at roughly $429 are backing the push to $25.
Related articles: NYSE:UNH
