NEW YORK — December 23, 2025 (1:37 p.m. ET) — U.S. stocks are grinding higher in thin, pre-holiday trading, with the S&P 500 hovering just below record territory as investors weigh a stronger-than-expected GDP update against sticky inflation signals and a drop in consumer confidence. The tone is upbeat but cautious: megacap tech is doing much of the lifting, while rising Treasury yields after the GDP print keeps the market from breaking out decisively.
Where the major U.S. indexes stand at 1:37 p.m. ET
As of about 1:37 p.m. Eastern, the market was modestly higher:
- S&P 500: ~6,904.97 (+0.38%)
- Nasdaq Composite: ~23,525.14 (+0.41%)
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: ~48,515.28 (+0.32%, up about 153 points)
- VIX volatility index: ~13.79 (down about 2%)
Across other key markets, investors are also watching a softer dollar and another surge in metals:
- U.S. Dollar Index: ~97.732 (down about 0.23%)
- WTI crude (futures): ~$58.30 (up about 0.5%)
- Gold (futures): ~$4,503.60 (higher on the day)
Earlier in the session, around 1:03 p.m. ET, the Associated Press also reported the S&P 500 up ~0.3%, the Dow up ~93 points, and the Nasdaq up ~0.3%, reinforcing the theme of a steady—but not explosive—advance.
What’s driving Wall Street today
1) A blockbuster GDP headline—plus a reality check about what comes next
The biggest macro catalyst is the Commerce Department’s update showing U.S. third-quarter GDP grew at a 4.3% annualized rate, above economists’ expectations cited by Reuters and adding fuel to the “soft landing / still-strong economy” narrative. Reuters
But not everyone is treating the GDP number as a simple green light. Reuters noted concerns that Q4 could slow sharply, with TD Economics’ Thomas Feltmate pointing to the economic drag from a record-long six-week government shutdown and forecasting sub-1% growth in Q4.
2) Inflation and confidence are pulling in the opposite direction
The market’s tug-of-war is coming from the combination of:
- Inflation that remains above the Fed’s target, and
- Consumers who appear more uneasy heading into year-end.
AP reported that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (PCE) rose to a 2.8% annual pace in Q3 (up from 2.1% in Q2), while consumer confidence fell in December to its lowest level since April, according to The Conference Board.
That’s a tricky mix for the Federal Reserve: growth is strong enough to keep inflation risks alive, but confidence and labor-market anxiety keep rate-cut expectations from disappearing entirely.
3) Fed-cut expectations are shifting—less urgency near-term, more debate about 2026
After the GDP update, traders recalibrated the timing of potential easing. Reuters reported markets still expect at least two 25-basis-point cuts next year, but odds of a cut as early as January slipped (Reuters cited 13% at the time of its report).
Investing.com’s analysis echoed that repricing: it described a classic “strong-growth” yield move and said fed-funds futures were assigning roughly 13%–15.5% odds of a late-January cut, down from roughly 20% a day earlier. Investing
The takeaway: Wall Street is increasingly talking about “calibration” rather than “rescue”—cuts later, not immediately, unless conditions deteriorate.
Today’s market leadership: Big Tech and AI are back in charge (again)
The market’s advance is being carried by a familiar engine: megacap tech and AI-linked names.
Reuters highlighted gains in Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, and Broadcom, with Nvidia up about 2%+ in the Reuters snapshot as investors continued to buy the dip after last week’s valuation jitters.
AP reinforced the same dynamic: even with many S&P 500 stocks lower on the day, big tech’s outsized market weight pushed the index upward.
A notable caution flag for 2026: accounting scrutiny in megacap tech
Adding a layer of “under-the-surface” risk, Reuters columnist Marty Fridson pointed to growing investor chatter around depreciation schedules at major tech firms—arguing that changes in how long companies assume major assets last can make earnings look stronger without boosting cash flow. The column specifically cited debate involving Nvidia and noted that several “Magnificent Seven” companies have extended assumed useful lives for certain assets since 2020 as capital spending surged. Reuters
This isn’t an allegation of fraud, but it underscores why some investors believe tech valuations are increasingly priced for perfection, leaving less room for disappointment.
Key stock movers making headlines today
Healthcare: Novo Nordisk jumps on FDA approval for a weight-loss pill
One of the day’s standout stories is Novo Nordisk, after U.S. regulators approved an oral version of Wegovy (semaglutide) for chronic weight management—an important milestone because it’s positioned as a more convenient alternative for patients hesitant about injections. AP said Novo Nordisk jumped 8%+ on the news.
Reuters added context: a late-stage study showed average weight loss of 16.6% over 64 weeks for participants taking the 25 mg oral dose, and the company expects availability starting in early January for certain doses.
Software & cybersecurity: ServiceNow drops on its $7.75B Armis deal
On the downside, Reuters reported ServiceNow fell about 3% after agreeing to buy cybersecurity startup Armis for $7.75 billion in cash—an acquisition that instantly sparked the usual debate about price paid, strategic fit, and near-term dilution.
Materials: Copper’s record run boosts miners, including Freeport
Materials are also in focus after copper surged to fresh records. Reuters flagged Freeport-McMoRan rising as copper hit a record and the stock benefited from an analyst price-target move.
Beyond equities, the metals story is global and broad-based. The Financial Times reported copper moved above $12,000 per tonne for the first time, driven by tariff concerns and supply worries.
Defense: Huntington Ingalls and the “reindustrialization” trade
Reuters noted Huntington Ingalls was in focus after President Donald Trump announced plans for new “Trump class” battleships, keeping defense-linked names on investors’ radars into year-end. Reuters
Investing.com’s analysis also described defense as a leadership pocket, tying outperformance to expectations for multi-year naval spending.
Cross-asset backdrop: gold and silver hit new highs as the dollar softens
While stocks hold near records, precious metals are stealing the spotlight.
Reuters reported:
- Spot gold hit a record $4,497.55/oz and remained elevated,
- Spot silver reached a record $71.06/oz, and
- Analysts cited a combination of market deficits, industrial demand, safe-haven buying, a weaker dollar, and expectations of lower yields as drivers.
In plain terms: markets are pricing strong growth, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical risk at the same time—an environment where both stocks and havens can rally.
Forecasts and outlook: what today’s commentary implies for 2026
“Run it hot” is becoming the mainstream base case—especially after the GDP surprise
Business Insider summarized a growing Wall Street narrative that the U.S. is entering 2026 with high growth and above-target inflation—the so-called “run it hot” scenario—arguing the GDP print strengthens that thesis even as it reduces the urgency for early Fed cuts. Business Insider
Whether investors love or hate that outlook depends on the sector:
- Higher yields can pressure the valuations of long-duration growth stocks,
- But financials and cyclicals may hold up better if growth persists.
Retail investors are expected to stay influential into next year
Another forward-looking theme: retail participation.
Reuters reported that retail inflows into U.S. stocks are on track for record highs in 2025, with J.P. Morgan estimating inflows up 53% year over year, and retail trading representing 20%–25% of activity (peaking around 35% in April). Analysts quoted by Reuters expect retail investors to remain a major force in 2026, supported by easier access via low-cost platforms and a continued appetite for thematic trades—especially in tech.
The holiday pattern traders are watching: the “Santa Claus rally”
Seasonality is also in play. Reuters noted that the “Santa Claus rally” window—often defined as the last five trading days of the year and the first two of January—begins Wednesday and runs through January 5 this year, according to Stock Trader’s Almanac. Reuters
Seasonality isn’t destiny, but in low-volume weeks it can shape positioning and headlines.
What to watch next: data, rates, and holiday trading hours
Key data ahead
AP pointed to upcoming weekly jobless claims (a key proxy for layoffs and labor-market cooling) as one of the next notable U.S. releases in an otherwise quiet week.
Trading calendar: early close Wednesday, closed Thursday
Expect liquidity to get even thinner:
- U.S. markets close early on Wednesday, Dec. 24 (Christmas Eve), and
- Markets are closed Thursday, Dec. 25 (Christmas Day).
(Reuters also reported the NYSE planned to remain open as scheduled on Dec. 24 and Dec. 26 despite federal government closure orders, with the Dec. 24 early close still in effect.)
Bottom line at 1:37 p.m. ET
The U.S. stock market’s midday message on Dec. 23, 2025 is straightforward: indexes are near records, but the path is narrow. A blowout GDP number is keeping the soft-landing narrative alive, yet inflation and confidence data are restraining hopes for quick Fed cuts. Add thin holiday liquidity—and a metals surge reflecting policy and geopolitical uncertainty—and you get a market that can move quickly on headlines, even when the tape looks calm.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
