NEW YORK, April 6, 2026, 13:16 EDT
Stocks in the U.S. moved up on Monday, with the Dow adding 83 points, the S&P 500 rising 0.25%, and the Nasdaq ahead 0.40% as of 11:50 a.m. ET. Fresh reports of Iran ceasefire talks seemed to keep momentum going after last week’s sharpest rally in four months. Bank stocks and chip plays set the tone—JPMorgan Chase and Visa buoyed financials, while Seagate surged on a Morgan Stanley upgrade to its top picks. “March was a tough month for stocks and investors really just want to find a reason to be optimistic,” said Melissa Brown, managing director of investment decision research at SimCorp. Reuters
The stakes are rising: in the next few days, investors will get a clearer look at whether the oil shock out of the Middle East is morphing into a wider U.S. inflation threat. The consumer price index—set for release Friday—is forecast to jump 0.9% month-on-month, according to a Reuters poll. Early reads from Delta Air Lines and Constellation Brands will also provide clues on just how much higher fuel bills and war-driven turmoil are squeezing U.S. companies. “The market already has inflation on the brain,” said Patrick Ryan, chief investment strategist at Madison Investments. Reuters
Markets are staring down the clock. Trump, sticking to his guns, said Monday that Iran has until Tuesday—final offer—to strike a deal. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of world energy supply, keeps oil hovering close to $111 a barrel. Even a fresh ceasefire headline sends prices swinging. “Investors aren’t fully committed until there’s something solid,” said Robert Pavlik at Dakota Wealth. Reuters
Traders found little support in the latest economic figures. The Institute for Supply Management reported its services PMI dropped to 54.0 in March from 56.1. The prices-paid index, though, shot up to 70.7—the highest reading since October 2022. Services account for over two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
The March jobs report didn’t budge the outlook for rate cuts. Payrolls climbed by 178,000, unemployment slipped to 4.3%, and Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, summed it up: “If you’re hoping for cuts, this report does nothing to improve your hopes.” Reuters
Wall Street’s outlook is moving. Wells Fargo Investment Institute has dropped its forecast for two rate cuts in 2026 and now predicts none, reversing its earlier stance. Citigroup, on the other hand, is delaying its anticipated first Fed cut to September, pushed back from June. According to Wells Fargo strategists, “balance of risks has shifted to incentivize patience from the Fed.” Reuters
Equity cash is still in play, though it’s getting picky. LSEG Lipper numbers put U.S. equity fund inflows at $7.05 billion for the week ending April 1, but nearly all of it—$14.67 billion—went to large-cap funds. Investors were pulling money out of small-cap, mid-cap, and sector funds at the same time. This isn’t a blanket vote of confidence; it’s targeted buying.
This trade remains fragile. The New York Fed reported that March supply-chain pressure hit 0.68, a level not seen since early 2023. The war’s disruption is already pushing inflation risk higher, the Fed warned. LHMeyer analysts don’t expect supply chains to snap back quickly, even with a swift resolution to the conflict.
Wall Street’s grabbing at relief while it’s on the table. A more muted inflation print might help extend Monday’s uptick. But if crude jumps again, or talks falter on a deal, that rally could sputter fast.
