WASHINGTON, Feb 3, 2026, 03:51 (EST)
- Venezuela’s oil exports climbed to roughly 800,000 barrels per day in January, with stockpiles starting to shift once more.
- Citgo Petroleum’s protection license has been extended until March 20, pausing the ongoing dispute with creditors.
- Exxon and Chevron warn that long-term investment hinges on stable politics and clearer regulations.
Venezuela’s oil exports jumped to roughly 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January, up from 498,000 bpd in December, according to shipping data. The rise follows the U.S. lifting its blockade, allowing traders to resume crude and fuel shipments. Reuters
President Donald Trump has highlighted the spike as proof his administration can revive Venezuelan exports while maintaining strict control over the trade. He has declared that the U.S. plans to oversee Venezuela’s oil sales and revenues indefinitely.
That control is crucial since the big players still dominate investment. Chevron remains the sole U.S. oil major active in Venezuela, while Exxon pulled out almost two decades ago after its assets were nationalized.
More than 40 million barrels of crude and fuel remain trapped in tanks and vessels due to the blockade, pushing PDVSA to slash production in early January. Data reveals that trading giants Vitol and Trafigura moved roughly 12 million barrels that month under U.S. licenses.
Last week, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control rolled out a general license allowing established U.S. companies to lift, buy, store, transport, and refine oil originating from Venezuela. However, restrictions on increasing production remain in effect. The license prohibits dealings with entities linked to Russia or Iran, among others, and mandates that contracts follow U.S. law with dispute resolution in U.S. courts. Firms like Repsol and Eni are pursuing separate approvals to boost output since the general license doesn’t cover new production. Treasury
The United States reclaimed its spot as the top single destination in January, taking in 284,000 bpd of Venezuelan crude and products. Chevron was responsible for 220,000 bpd of that total—more than twice what it shipped the month before. Meanwhile, exports to China dropped to 156,000 bpd, and shipments to allied Cuba disappeared entirely, according to the data.
Citgo’s ownership remains caught up in ongoing court battles and sanctions hurdles. On Monday, the government extended a protection license that shields the refiner from creditors until March 20. The company is slated for takeover by an Elliott Investment Management affiliate following a Delaware judge’s sale order, but the winning bidder still requires approval from OFAC. Reuters Treasury
Exxon CEO Darren Woods and Chevron CEO Mike Wirth highlighted the need for stronger legal frameworks and political stability before moving forward with long-term projects during earnings calls. Chevron told analysts it could boost gross production in Venezuela by around 50% in the near term and handle an extra 100,000 bpd of Venezuelan crude at its U.S. refineries. “We certainly could see operations and footprint expand in Venezuela,” Wirth commented. Woods added that this shift might improve conditions in Guyana, where Exxon and Chevron jointly operate offshore developments. Reuters
Venezuela’s recently approved hydrocarbons reform aims to slash taxes and grant more freedom to private oil producers, but confidence remains cautious. In Maracaibo, some PDVSA workers and retirees are hopeful the new investment will boost their wages and pensions, especially after inflation hit nearly 400% last year. Others, however, dismiss the optimism as wishful thinking. Interim President Delcy Rodriguez has championed the plan since the U.S. detained former leader Nicolás Maduro. The sector has been mostly government-controlled since expropriations targeted Exxon and ConocoPhillips. Reuters
Sanctions lawyers and analysts say the general license cuts some red tape but leaves bigger challenges intact. Jeremy Paner, ex-OFAC investigator now at Hughes Hubbard & Reed, called it broad enough to include refining and “lifting” — the loading of crude for export — yet limited since it only applies to U.S. firms. Kevin Book of ClearView Energy Partners dubbed the move “America First, Others Ask.” Meanwhile, Francisco Monaldi from Rice University’s Baker Institute pointed out that ventures involving Russia and China account for about 22% of Venezuela’s oil, warning that blocking those exports would create “a big problem.” Reuters
In Asia, Chinese independent refiners, or teapots, have turned to discounted Iranian heavy crude to fill the gap left by stalled Venezuelan shipments after the U.S. tightened control over that trade, according to two sources familiar with the deals. Trade contacts reported Iranian Heavy is going for about $12 a barrel below Brent, a deeper discount than what Vitol or Trafigura are offering for Venezuelan cargoes. Reuters
The next challenge lies ahead: Washington must still choose how much to relax production limits, while companies demand stronger assurances on taxes, contracts, and security. Clearing the current inventory backlog won’t happen overnight, and the Citgo sale process is still exposed to potential legal and sanctions hurdles.
On Sunday, Venezuela shipped its first liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cargo in nearly three years, according to shipping data. In January, the country also imported diluents like heavy naphtha, a thinner essential for transporting extra-heavy crude. Barrels are flowing again, but the big payments have yet to arrive.
