London, July 10, 2026, 20:09 BST
Vodafone Group Plc LON:VOD jumped 12.6% to finish at 110.10 pence on Friday. Emirates Telecommunications Group Company PJSC, also called e& ADX:EAND, said it would sell its 16.21% stake to Xavier Niel’s family fund for about £4.4 billion. Niel’s vehicle will become Vodafone’s top shareholder once it gets regulatory approval.
The number to watch was the gap that closed. Vodafone ended only 0.34% under Vega’s cash takeout price of 110.4792p, despite the vehicle stating it has no plans to buy the whole company. Niel said Vodafone is “a compelling investment opportunity.” The market has now priced in almost all of his 13% block premium. GlobeNewswire
The 112.5p figure including dividends isn’t the right number for new buyers. That price has about 2.02p from Vodafone’s final dividend, but shares went ex-dividend June 4. Anyone buying after that misses the payout. So the real comparison is 110.10p versus Vega’s 110.4792p cash leg.
| Reference point | Pence per share | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Thursday close | 97.76 | Benchmark before the deal |
| Vega cash price | 110.4792 | 13.0% over Thursday’s close; just 0.38p above Friday |
| e& proceeds including dividend | 112.5 | Includes a dividend, which new buyers can’t access |
| 52-week high | 131.10 | Friday closed 16.0% below the 52-week top |
Vodafone said its relationship deal with e& is over and e& CEO Hatem Dowidar quit the Vodafone board right away. A Vega spokesman said the new stake comes with no governance agreements. CCS Insight analyst Kester Mann called e&’s move “a surprising turnaround” from the global expansion it started with Vodafone in 2022. Investegate
Tele2 AB (STO:TEL2-B) is the closest comparison. Niel has pushed for cost cuts at the Swedish firm using a big minority stake and has hinted at a possible bigger deal down the line. Vodafone holders have a similar bet—they’re hoping influence, not direct control, is enough to boost returns.
Stocks moved mostly on company news Friday. Vodafone was the top riser in the FTSE 100, but the index itself added just 0.2% to close at 10,497.3 and finished the week off 1.7%. Vodafone is still trading around 16% below its 52-week high from May 21, even after the jump.
That puts the focus on Vodafone’s operations to support the current valuation. The company reported €2.6 billion in adjusted free cash flow for its 2026 financial year. Vodafone also forecast adjusted free cash flow between €2.6 billion and €2.9 billion for 2027, and gave guidance for adjusted EBITDAaL of €11.9 billion to €12.2 billion.
| Financial measure | FY2026 actual | FY2027 guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted free cash flow | €2.6 billion | €2.6 billion to €2.9 billion |
| Adjusted EBITDAaL | €11.4 billion | €11.9 billion to €12.2 billion |
Vodafone CEO Margherita Della Valle said back in May that the company’s UK outlook still expects “a high degree of competition.” For the planned merger, she’s making the bet on the benefits of a larger network, fewer customers leaving, and cross-selling more services. That approach doesn’t count on industry prices going up, which would be easier. Vodafone
But Friday’s move wiped out most of the deal-price spread before Niel gets any governance rights or regulatory go-ahead. Germany makes up 37% of Vodafone group core profit, but German adjusted EBITDAaL dropped 3.3% in FY2026, with service revenue down 0.2%. If German recovery slows or UK integration costs rise, some of that 13% rerating could go away fast.
Vodafone has its first-quarter trading update coming up on July 27. For now, 110.4792p is a better guide than the 112.5p with dividends included. That update will test if Friday’s close to 110.4792p is a sign of lasting faith in cash flow or just the market filling a rare 16% order.
