NEW YORK, July 15, 2026, 12:07 EDT
- Micron dropped 8.4% to $900.78 as of 11:52 a.m. EDT, wiping out roughly $94 billion in market cap.
- CXMT’s offer price puts its equity value around $85.6 billion, with the sale possibly raising up to 66.6 billion yuan, according to Reuters.
- Looking at Q1, investors are valuing each point of Micron’s DRAM share at around 4.4 times what they give CXMT.
Micron Technology, Inc. NASDAQ:MU shed around $94 billion in market value by late Wednesday morning, more than the $85.6 billion valuation expected for ChangXin Memory Technologies’ Shanghai debut. The stock dropped 8.4% to $900.78 at 11:52 a.m. EDT as investors looked at whether a nearly doubled capital raising could bring new DRAM supply faster. DRAM is used in servers, PCs and phones. That’s a sharp move for a rival that hasn’t started trading yet.
CXMT is launching the offering as Micron trades at levels reflecting a supply crunch management expects to last past 2027. CXMT aims to pull in 57.9 billion yuan before any greenshoe, nearly double its initial 29.5 billion yuan target, and could hit 66.6 billion yuan if underwriters exercise all options. The funds are slated for production and tech upgrades.
It’s a sharp price for Micron’s spot in the DRAM market. Counterpoint Research estimated Micron had about 22% of global DRAM revenue last quarter, with CXMT at 8%. By Wednesday’s market cap, each market share point costs about $46.9 billion for Micron, just $10.7 billion for CXMT.
| Valuation measure | Micron | CXMT |
|---|---|---|
| Equity value | $1.03 trillion | 579.18 billion yuan, about $85.6 billion |
| Q1 global DRAM revenue share | About 22% | About 8% |
| Equity value per share point | About $46.9 billion | About $10.7 billion |
| Relative value per share point | 4.4 times CXMT | Base |
The share-point calculation is only an estimate for comparison. It’s not an accounting ratio. Micron sells other products, and CXMT isn’t trading yet.
The 4.4-times figure isn’t an apples-to-apples valuation. Micron sells NAND flash, the type of memory in solid-state drives, and has started shipping HBM4 at scale. HBM is the high-speed memory used alongside AI chips. CXMT still trails Samsung Electronics KRX:005930 and SK hynix KRX:000660 on advanced memory. Eddie Tam, chief investment officer at Central Asset Investments, told Reuters CXMT’s tech lag is two to four years.
Micron still relies on conventional DRAM, with the business pulling in $31.3 billion, or 76% of revenue for the fiscal third quarter. Average DRAM prices rose about 60% versus the previous quarter. If a price war breaks out in PCs, phones, or general server chips, it could show up in earnings before CXMT becomes a rival in HBM.
CXMT reported first-quarter revenue jumped 719% to 50.8 billion yuan, with net profit at 25 billion yuan after a 1.6 billion yuan loss. The chipmaker sees first-half revenue between 110 billion and 120 billion yuan, close to double its 2025 full-year sales.
| Operating measure | Micron, latest reported quarter | CXMT, latest reported quarter |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $41.46 billion | 50.8 billion yuan, or around $7.51 billion |
| Net income | $28.24 billion | 25 billion yuan, or close to $3.69 billion |
| Global DRAM revenue share, Q1 | Near 22% | Roughly 8% |
| Advanced-memory position | HBM4 now shipping at scale | Behind the top suppliers |
Micron reported results for the quarter that ended May 28. CXMT’s numbers are for the first quarter of the calendar year, so the operating results do not align by period.
Micron’s near-term numbers still back the bulls. The company booked $41.46 billion in fiscal Q3 revenue and earned $28.24 billion. For the fourth quarter, Micron is guiding to $50 billion in revenue and a gross margin near 86%. Customers have signed up for $22 billion across 16 supply deals. “We expect tight conditions to persist beyond calendar 2027,” CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said. SEC
Donnie Teng, semiconductor analyst at Nomura Holdings NYSE:NMR, had a similar short-term take. “Memory supply is still not enough,” Teng said. He thinks AI demand and cloud spending from big players will let the market take up CXMT’s share sale. Most of the worry sits with future supply, not Micron’s current quarter. Reuters
A bullish call the day before pushed the move higher. KeyBanc’s John Vinh, from KeyCorp NYSE:KEY, raised his Micron price target to $1,750 from $1,600. Vinh is looking for DRAM prices to jump 15% to 20% in Q3 and add another 15% in Q4. Shares of Micron closed Tuesday up 4.9% at $983.12.
Bears may be off in either direction here. U.S. export rules and the tech gap at CXMT could keep most of its chips in China’s mainstream market, cutting direct competition for Micron’s top-end offerings. But with more cash, backing from the state and higher demand at home, CXMT could ramp up production and win new customers, putting a lid on commodity prices even as HBM supply stays tight.
Investors are watching to see if CXMT can actually turn its IPO cash into real chip production before Micron locks in its earnings with supply deals and HBM orders for the next two years. The stock move shows how much is riding on the shortage sticking around. First-day IPO moves aren’t the key signal here.
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