MARA Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA) surges 17% as AI infrastructure becomes more prominent than Bitcoin shift

MARA Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA) surges 17% as AI infrastructure becomes more prominent than Bitcoin shift

NEW YORK, July 30, 2026, 19:02 EDT

  • MARA Holdings, Inc. closed at $11.82, rising 17.4%. Bitcoin increased 1.5% to roughly $64,780.
  • Shares of AI-related mining peers climbed between 20% and 31%. MARA’s return was almost four percentage points below the group median.
  • MARA is scheduled to disclose its second-quarter earnings on August 6. Early estimates indicate expected revenue of approximately $209 million.

MARA Holdings, Inc. jumped 17.4% on Thursday as investors reevaluated the company’s power assets for potential use in artificial-intelligence data centers. Bitcoin increased 1.5%. Regular U.S. markets have closed, but after-hours trading is still ongoing.

Stock chart for NASDAQ:MARA

The difference is significant. MARA saw its equity value rise by about $666 million. The increase in bitcoin contributed approximately $33 million to the company’s latest reported coin holdings. Based solely on that unchanged balance, bitcoin accounts for just 5% of Thursday’s increase.

Asset or companyLatest priceThursday moveMarket value
MARA Holdings $11.82up 17.4%$4.49 billion
IREN Limited $38.26rallied 30.7%$12.77 billion
Riot Platforms $22.12rose 21.2%$7.69 billion
CleanSpark $14.54advanced 21.1%$3.31 billion
Core Scientific $21.81climbed 20.4%$7.10 billion
Bitcoin$64,780gained 1.5%

Market data reflect the most recent figures as of the dateline. Percentage movements compare to the previous close.

Companies with more direct AI involvement saw larger movements. MARA underperformed the four-company peer median by roughly 3.8 percentage points. This trend indicates investors showed preference for firms with more immediate contracted AI revenue.

Microsoft provided the main boost, with shares jumping over 15% after an upbeat cloud outlook reduced worries about returns on AI investments. The Nasdaq Composite rose 2.78%.

Advanced Micro Devices reached a deal for Core Scientific capacity two days prior. The arrangement will begin with over 500 megawatts in 2027, with potential to increase to 2.5 gigawatts. No financial details were revealed.

MARA trading windowStarting referenceEnding priceChange
Previous full week, July 20–24$10.69 as of July 17$12.12+13.4%
Ongoing week through Thursday$12.12 as of July 24$11.82-2.5%
Thursday trading dayEarlier close$11.82+17.4%

Reported closing prices are used to determine returns.

The gains seen on Thursday failed to reverse the latest drop. MARA was still down 2.5% versus its July 24 closing price. In contrast, the previous full week saw the stock rise by 13.4%.

Sample one-day valuation reconciliationAmount
Recent MARA market capitalization$4.49 billion
Estimated previous market capitalization$3.83 billion
Increase in equity value on Thursday$666 million
Most recent reported bitcoin holdings35,303 BTC
Daily bitcoin price increase$932
Mark-to-market profit on holdings$32.9 million
BTC holding gain as proportion of equity increase4.9%

MARA’s bitcoin balance as of March 31 is the basis for these calculations. They are intended for illustration and do not represent a present holdings figure or imply causation.

The holdings disclaimer remains crucial. MARA has indicated it might choose to sell bitcoin when opportunities arise. Any resulting funds could bolster liquidity, ongoing operations, or capital investments.

Nonetheless, the gap in scale remains significant. This suggests that Thursday’s investors primarily valued power availability and potential for AI conversion. The fundamentals of core mining provide a less convincing rationale.

MARA operating measureQ1 2026Q1 2025Change
Revenue$174.6 million$213.9 million-18.4%
Energized hashrate72.2 EH/s54.3 EH/s+33.0%
Bitcoin produced2,2472,286-1.7%
Purchased energy cost per bitcoin$40,047$35,728+12.1%

EH/s refers to exahashes per second, which quantifies the computational power used in mining.

The table illustrates the strategic change. MARA increased its hashrate by 33%, but mined marginally fewer coins. Energy cost per coin purchased rose by 12%. Additional computing power did not yield higher bitcoin output.

MARA’s Texas deal spans over 1,200 acres. The firm anticipates reaching one gigawatt of access by October 2027 and two gigawatts by April 2028. Once sites like Long Ridge are fully energized, the overall portfolio could reach a capacity of 4.8 gigawatts.

Chairman and CEO Fred Thiel stated that facilities offering “reliable, scalable power will become increasingly valuable.” MARA mentioned it has received interest from possible tenants but has not identified any or revealed the lease amount for its Texas development. MARA

Long Ridge is set to deliver a 505-megawatt gas facility and over 1,600 acres. The deal, valued at $1.5 billion, factors in assumed debt. According to MARA, the assets produce approximately $144 million in annualized adjusted earnings. The transaction awaits regulatory clearance.

MARA is scheduled to provide its next update on August 6, when it publishes its shareholder letter ahead of a conference call set for 5 p.m. EDT. Early projections point to revenue of around $209.4 million and earnings of $0.17 per share. These consensus numbers are subject to revision.

The projected revenue implies around 20% growth from the prior quarter. However, it is still approximately 12% lower than the second quarter of 2025. Investors are also monitoring tenant commitments, energization timelines, project funding, and bitcoin sales.

Risks: MARA continues to face risks from bitcoin price swings, competitive pressure on the network, and fluctuations in electricity expenses. The 4.8-gigawatt number refers to possible capacity, not current AI usage. Any setbacks, increased financing costs or new share issuance could put the rerating at risk.

On Thursday, MARA reflected increased AI infrastructure optionality in its pricing. August 6 will be key to see if that optionality translates into contracted revenue.

TS2 TECH • EXTENDED COVERAGE

Further analysis

What is MARA stock’s position following its steep rally on Thursday?

The most recent quote stood at $11.82 late July 30, advancing 17.4%. Trading volume surged to 45.3 million shares, with market capitalization nearing $4.49 billion. Over the last 52 weeks, the price has ranged from $6.66 to $23.45. Despite Thursday’s strong recovery, shares remain about 50% below that peak, but roughly 77% above the lowest point of the year. Yahoo Finance

What caused MARA to outperform both Bitcoin and the broader market so significantly?

Thursday’s gains were fueled by a widespread rally in mining and AI-infrastructure stocks. Bitcoin hovered around $64,804, and MARA surged roughly 17%. Strong results from Core Scientific and its deal with AMD boosted mining sector valuations. The S&P 500 climbed 1.66%, a smaller increase compared to MARA. MARA’s most recent shareholder update was its July 22 earnings notification. This supports a sector-wide explanation over company-specific catalysts. Investor’s Business Daily

What projections does Wall Street have for the August 6 earnings report?

MARA is set to release its Q2 earnings ahead of its call on August 6 at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. Analyst revenue forecasts are concentrated in the $206 million to $210 million range, suggesting sequential growth of about 18% to 20% from Q1. Expectations for earnings per share range from a $0.33 loss to a $0.38 gain. Figures from data vendors often blend GAAP and adjusted metrics, which makes comparisons challenging. Investors may focus more on revenue, production, and Bitcoin reserves than on headline earnings per share. MARA

What level of direct Bitcoin exposure does MARA currently offer?

As of March 31, MARA reported holding 35,303 BTC, with 9,995 of those either pledged or loaned. Based on a Bitcoin price of $64,804, the firm’s total BTC holdings were valued at roughly $2.29 billion. Of that, about $648 million was linked to loaned or pledged assets. MARA’s market cap stands at nearly double its reported Bitcoin asset value. This holdings data is four months old and may no longer reflect current levels. An updated treasury figure is expected with the August disclosure. SEC

Is MARA achieving greater efficiency in its mining activities?

Energized hashrate climbed 33% year on year to 72.2 EH/s. However, Q1 Bitcoin production decreased by 2% to 2,247 coins. The energy cost per Bitcoin at owned sites rose to $40,047, compared to $35,728 previously. The cost per petahash-day was down 3%, reaching $27.60. Fleet efficiency was recorded at 17.6 joules per terahash. Additional capacity provides support, but network difficulty and uptime remain key factors in output. SEC

Is the balance sheet now strong enough to lower financing risk?

MARA cut total debt to $2.45 billion from $3.65 billion in Q1. The company sold 20,880 BTC for $1.5 billion, primarily to pay down obligations. As of March 31, cash was $513.7 million. Its outstanding $150 million credit facility bears 7% interest until January 2027, and was secured by 4,253 BTC at the quarter’s close. Risk levels decreased, though Long Ridge contributed about $900 million in assumed liabilities. MARA

Could artificial intelligence and high-performance computing have a significant impact on MARA’s valuation?

Starwood’s platform is aiming for an initial capacity of around 1 GW and plans to surpass 2.5 GW. MARA has flexibility to keep between 10% and 50% ownership in individual projects. Starwood will oversee tenant recruitment, construction, financing, and operations. The Texas location is on track for 1 GW by October 2027, potentially expanding to 2 GW by April 2028. The pending Long Ridge project would provide 485 MW, with a possible increase to 505 MW during 2026. According to public filings, tenant negotiations are ongoing, but no hyperscaler leases have been finalized. MARA

What level of threat does dilution risk pose for current shareholders?

MARA reported 380.9 million shares outstanding as of March 31. The weighted average share count rose 10.5% compared to 344.1 million in the prior year quarter. Its $2 billion at-the-market (ATM) program was still available and remained unused in Q1. As of quarter-end, there were 84.7 million potential anti-dilutive securities, representing roughly 22% of shares outstanding. Not all of these securities will convert or vest. Future large-scale initiatives may require funding via equity, Bitcoin disposals, or drawing on additional debt. MARA

How do analyst forecasts reflect on MARA’s outlook for the upcoming 12 months?

According to a panel by MarketWatch on July 28, analysts’ average price target stood at $17.86. The group’s median expectation was $15, with projections spanning from $5.50 up to $30. Based on the current price of $11.82, the mean target suggests roughly 51% potential upside. The lowest projection points to a 53% drop, while the highest indicates a 154% gain. The consensus rating was Overweight from 15 analysts. Analysts indicated a base range between $15 and $18. The final result will depend on factors such as bitcoin, tenant developments, and financing arrangements. marketwatch.com

Marcin Frąckiewicz is the founder and CEO of TS2 Space, a satellite communications company serving customers around the world. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), he has more than two decades of experience in telecommunications, satellite services and technology ventures. He writes about satellite communications, space technology, artificial intelligence and the stock market, with a particular focus on technology companies, semiconductors, emerging industries and the trends shaping global innovation. Follow Marcin Frąckiewicz on Google News, Facebook. or Linkedin.

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