STARBASE, Texas, August 13, 2026, 04:57 EDT — U.S. premarket trade has begun, with the main cash market opening at 09:30 EDT.
- SpaceX advanced 9.65% on Wednesday, increasing its market value by an estimated $169 billion.
- The increase was approximately 53 times the total projected revenue of the AI division for 2025.
- Shares rose a further 0.91% in premarket trade, ahead of an upcoming lockup expiry set for August 20.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. NASDAQ:SPCX gained roughly $169 billion in market capitalisation on Wednesday. Shares climbed 9.65% to $146.15 amid the session’s highest trading volume.
The increase was roughly 53 times SpaceX’s projected $3.2 billion in AI revenue for 2025, marking the day’s most apparent valuation benchmark. Investors assigned a substantial future value to the business, ahead of present sales justifying such growth.
Shares changed hands at $147.48 early Thursday, rising 0.91%. Futures edged higher. The cash market is set to open at 09:30 EDT.
Market action on Wednesday
| Measure | Value | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Closing price | $146.15 | Gain of 9.65% |
| Premarket price | $147.48 | Up by 0.91% |
| Estimated market-value gain | $169 billion | Equals 53 times 2025 AI revenue |
| Trading volume | 165.77 million | 35% higher than average |
| Distance from 52-week high | 35.2% under peak | Peak: $225.64 |
| Return from $135 IPO price | 8.3% increase | Two months since IPO |
An employee meeting hosted by Chief Executive Elon Musk served as the trigger. Musk told staff that AI revenue may surpass all other product lines as soon as September. SpaceX introduced Grok 4.6 and set a 10-gigawatt computing goal for 2027.
Revenue is now more evenly distributed. Sales in the second quarter totaled $7.81 billion, marking a 90% increase compared to the same period last year. AI contributed $2.56 billion and Starlink accounted for $4.29 billion. SpaceX posted a net loss of $541 million.
Revenue composition for the second quarter
| Business | Q2 revenue | Share of total |
|---|---|---|
| Starlink | $4.29 billion | 54.9% |
| AI | $2.56 billion | 32.8% |
| Launch and spacecraft | $962 million | 12.3% |
| Total | $7.81 billion | 100% |
| Net result | -$541 million | -6.9% margin |
This combination highlights both potential and risk. AI would have to expand quickly to surpass Starlink within weeks. Musk’s projection reflects a management objective rather than official revenue guidance.
SpaceX has a significant spending base. In 2025, the company allocated $12.7 billion to AI capital expenditures, accounting for 61% of segment capital spending and representing four times the revenue generated from AI.
Level of capital intensity
| 2025 segment | Revenue | Capital spending | Capex / revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Space | $4.09 billion | $3.83 billion | 0.9 times |
| Connectivity | $11.4 billion | $4.18 billion | 0.4 times |
| AI | $3.2 billion | $12.7 billion | 4.0 times |
| Consolidated | $18.7 billion | $20.7 billion | 1.1 times |
Backed by contracted compute demand, SpaceX secured significant multi-year deals ahead of its June listing. However, delivery commitments remain substantial, and customers are allowed to terminate if deadlines for capacity are not met.
Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley describes SpaceX as “uniquely positioned across launch, connectivity, and AI.” His bullish price target of $300 reflects confidence in the company’s integrated platform and its ability to generate returns from its compute investments. Morgan Stanley coverage
Analyst outlooks
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Jonas | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $300 |
| Edison Yu | Deutsche Bank | Buy | $255 |
| Paul Golding | Macquarie | Buy | $250 |
| Colin Canfield | Cantor Fitzgerald | Buy | $246 |
| Doug Anmuth | J.P. Morgan | Buy | $225 |
| Argus Research | Argus | Buy | $160 |
According to Google Finance, 28 analysts cover the stock: 22 rate it as a buy, five as a hold, and one as a sell. Their mean price target stands at $241.36, roughly 65% higher than Wednesday’s closing price. Targets vary significantly, spanning from $115 up to $800.
The following supply milestone falls on August 20, when a new batch from the lockup period will be allowed to trade. Over 900 million shares were released onto the market at the previous unlock, yet shares climbed on the same day.
Risks: Projected AI revenues are still unproven. Capital expenditure is outpacing present cash flows, while substantial share unlocks could add pressure to supply. Any setbacks with Starship, missed compute deliveries, or softer demand for models may quickly reduce the valuation.
The stock has climbed back above its $135 IPO price. Attention now turns to revenue. With a $169 billion day, there is scant tolerance for a gradual shift to AI.
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