NEW YORK, August 13, 2026, 17:25 EDT — U.S. equity markets remained closed, but Valero Energy NYSE:VLO and Marathon Petroleum NYSE:MPC finished at record levels despite a more than 2% drop in crude prices, marking a clear division in energy stocks. Valero rose 3.85% to $342.92, while Marathon advanced 2.33% to $356.37.
The action did not represent a widespread wager on oil. Phillips 66 NYSE:PSX rose 3.12%, as ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP declined 2.18%. Exxon Mobil NYSE:XOM dropped 0.71%, while Chevron NYSE:CVX gained 0.56%.
The difference is significant. Refiners purchase crude oil and sell fuels, meaning lower feedstock prices can support margins when diesel and gasoline prices remain strong. That scenario unfolded on Thursday, as reports of an assault on Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery drove diesel cracks to record levels.
| Asset or stock | August 13 close | Daily move | Investor signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | $87.07 a barrel | -2.15% | Pressure from inventories and demand |
| WTI crude | $81.25 a barrel | -2.40% | Input costs in U.S. fall |
| Valero NYSE:VLO | $342.92 | +3.85% | New 52-week high |
| Marathon Petroleum NYSE:MPC | $356.37 | +2.33% | Hits new 52-week high |
| Phillips 66 NYSE:PSX | $232.61 | +3.12% | Stronger refining sector |
| ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP | $124.52 | -2.18% | Weak performance upstream |
An illustrative basket highlights the difference. Valero, Marathon and Phillips 66 rose an average of 3.10%. Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhillips posted an average drop of 0.78%.
| Business group | Stocks | Equal-weight move |
|---|---|---|
| Refiners | VLO, MPC, PSX | up 3.10% |
| Integrated and upstream | XOM, CVX, COP | down 0.78% |
| Refiner advantage | Difference | lead by 3.88 percentage points |
Crude came under significant fundamental pressure. U.S. stockpiles climbed by 17.4 million barrels to reach 424.4 million last week, marking the largest weekly gain since January 2023. OPEC lowered its projection for 2026 demand growth to 580,000 barrels per day.
Brent declined by $1.91, halting a streak of six consecutive advances. West Texas Intermediate dropped $2.02 after rising over the previous five sessions. The retreat did not fully remove the geopolitical premium built up lately.
“Conflicting stories continue to drive the narrative,” said Tim Snyder, chief economist at Matador Economics, pointing to ongoing uncertainty about traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. That uncertainty simultaneously maintains concerns regarding both product shortages and crude supply risk. Reuters
Prices have outpaced Wall Street forecasts. Valero ended the session 6.9% above its average target of $320.67. Marathon finished 9.3% higher than its $326.07 consensus figure, according to the latest analyst panels on Google Finance.
| Company | Analyst view | Target | Versus close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valero | Consensus: 9 Buy, 6 Hold, 0 Sell | $320.67 average | -6.5% |
| Valero | Goldman Sachs: Buy | $365 | +6.4% |
| Valero | Mizuho: Hold | $300 | -12.5% |
| Marathon Petroleum | Consensus: 9 Buy, 6 Hold, 0 Sell | $326.07 average | -8.5% |
| Marathon Petroleum | Goldman Sachs: Buy | $376 | +5.5% |
| Marathon Petroleum | Mizuho: Hold | $304 | -14.7% |
The gap to the target increases expectations. Investors are currently pricing in exceptionally robust refining margins ahead of widespread analyst forecast upgrades. Upcoming changes to earnings estimates could determine if Thursday’s highs remain in place.
The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund NYSEARCA:XLE continues to be heavily weighted toward integrated producers. Exxon and Chevron together make up 35.97% of the fund. The refiners included in the fund collectively comprise 14.61% of its holdings as of July 27.
| XLE holding | Portfolio weight | August 13 move |
|---|---|---|
| Exxon Mobil | 20.93% | down 0.71% |
| Chevron | 15.04% | up 0.56% |
| ConocoPhillips | 5.95% | fell 2.18% |
| Marathon Petroleum | 4.97% | rose 2.33% |
| Phillips 66 | 4.92% | advanced 3.12% |
| Valero | 4.72% | gained 3.85% |
Overall market conditions were favorable. The S&P 500 climbed 0.65% to close at a record 7,798.99 and the Nasdaq advanced 0.81%. Still, the divergence within the energy sector far exceeded the movement seen in the broader index.
Risks: Diesel cracks may swiftly retreat if refinery output rises again or if demand drops. Any fresh crude supply outages could push feedstock prices higher. The new records set on Thursday reduce the margin for disappointing earnings.
The upcoming measure is if product margins remain high following the crude inventory disruption. Should margins persist, refiners may continue to diverge from producers. If margins fall, attention in the market could shift to the discrepancies in target prices.
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