Marcin Frąckiewicz

January 17, 2026, 4:10 PM EST. SPNT closed at $20.00, down 1.9%. One-month returns are -8.9%, but 90-day gains reach +13.4% and 1-year TSR is +33.4%, signaling weaker near term momentum but solid longer-term gains. A value score of 3, an intrinsic discount of 6.6%, and a 25% gap to analysts support a potential upside to a fair value around $27.50. At current levels, valuation suggests the market may be pricing in part of a recovery. The stock's expanding MGA partnerships in international and London markets, plus a tendency to retain more net risk, could lift both fee-based and underwriting income as these relationships scale. Risks include underperforming MGA deals, reserve trends, and catastrophe losses. The P/E stands at 12.6x vs US insurance avg 12.8x, implying possible upside if sentiment improves.