NEW YORK, Feb 4, 2026, 13:55 EST — Regular session
- After a steep drop earlier this week, NYMEX March natural gas jumped roughly 5% in early afternoon trading.
- Analysts expect Thursday’s EIA storage report to reveal a record withdrawal following the late-January storm.
- Gas-linked stocks showed a split, as producers and LNG companies moved in opposite directions.
U.S. natural gas futures climbed roughly 15 cents Wednesday, as the NYMEX March Henry Hub contract gained 15.4 cents to reach $3.465 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in early afternoon trading.
The rally is driven by traders eyeing the upcoming U.S. storage data. Analysts polled by Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, forecast the Energy Information Administration will report a 366 billion cubic feet (bcf) withdrawal for the week ending Jan. 30 — which would shatter the previous record and push inventories from surplus into deficit against the five-year average. “Nobody is going to care if it warms up, but right now it’s going to be a draw for the ages,” said Phil Flynn, senior account executive at The Price Futures Group. SP Global
The market remains unsettled after a sharp selloff. U.S. natural gas plunged the most in a single day since 1995 on Monday, with the March contract closing down 25.7% at $3.237 per mmBtu, according to Bloomberg.
Prices edged up slightly on Tuesday despite forecasts showing warmer-than-usual temperatures through mid-February and an expected drop in demand next week. March futures climbed 4.9 cents, or 1.5%, settling at $3.286. Meanwhile, 30-day close-to-close volatility stayed at a record high of 258.1% for the third consecutive day, Reuters noted.
Spot prices reveal just how quickly the panic eased. Henry Hub’s cash price hit $4.40 per mmBtu on Monday, Feb. 2, down sharply from the $30.72 peak on Jan. 22 during the storm-induced surge, according to EIA data.
LNG flows continue to impact U.S. supply figures. Exports dropped to 11.3 million metric tons in January, down from a record 11.5 million in December, Reuters said, citing preliminary data from LSEG. The decline followed a late-month freeze that hit output.
Overseas demand also plays a role. Eni executive Cristian Signoretto told Reuters the LNG market this year appears “very finely balanced,” noting that “Europe has very low storages, and we need to refill it in the summer.” Reuters
Producers highlight how volatile markets impact realized prices. Equinor revealed it sold roughly 30% of its U.S. gas volumes on the spot market in January amid the cold snap. CFO Torgrim Reitan noted, “We held around 30% of our exposure to cash prices or spot prices.” Reuters
Natural gas-linked stocks showed a mixed picture in U.S. trading. EQT dipped roughly 0.4%, while Antero Resources climbed around 0.8%. Cheniere Energy edged up about 0.4%, and Equinor’s U.S.-listed shares jumped approximately 1.3%. On the downside, Comstock Resources dropped close to 4.3%, and Kinder Morgan slid nearly 1.0%.
The market remains unsettled. If withdrawals come in smaller than expected or production bounces back faster, futures could slip sharply. On the other hand, another spell of extreme cold would reignite supply concerns and send cash prices climbing once more.
Traders will be watching Thursday’s EIA storage report, usually out at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Alongside that, fresh weather model updates and daily LNG feedgas flow data will also factor in.
