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Amazon (AMZN) Stock Skyrockets: Q3 Beats, Cloud Boom & $2.5B FTC Win

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  • Stock Snapshot (Oct 30, 2025): AMZN shares are around $227, down about 1.1% intraday [1]. The stock has traded in a $223–228 range today and sits near its 50-day moving average after a recent rally. Year-to-date AMZN is modestly up (~4%), lagging some tech peers. Market participants note that broader tech is volatile: Nvidia hit a $5 trillion market cap amid an AI-led rally [2], while Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments after a 25 bps rate cut dampened hopes for further easing [3]. Under these mixed conditions, Amazon heads into earnings on Oct. 30 as investors look for cues on cloud growth and profitability.
  • Q3 Earnings Expectations: Amazon reports Q3 2025 results (July–Sept) after the close on Oct. 30. The company had guided net sales of $174–179.5 billion (10–13% YoY growth) [4], and Wall Street consensus was roughly $177–178 billion in revenue with $1.57 EPS [5]. Key questions are whether AWS (cloud) growth will re-accelerate and how AI investments affect margins. Last year’s Q3 saw improved margins despite cautious consumers [6]; investors will watch if that continues. (Analyst benchmarks are high – for example, Benchmark’s Daniel Kurnos is forecasting ~20% AWS growth and says a strong cloud beat could “give AMZN stock a boost” [7].)
  • AWS & AI Growth: Amazon Web Services remains the crown jewel. In Q2 AWS revenue was $30.9 billion (up ~17.5% YoY) [8], and Q3 consensus sees roughly 18–20% cloud growth. AWS is being leveraged heavily for AI: Amazon in September announced new Alexa+ AI devices and big investments like a $4 billion stake in AI startup Anthropic [9]. CEO Andy Jassy has emphasized this bet, saying Amazon will “continue to invest more capital in chips, data centers, and power to pursue this unusually large opportunity that we have in generative AI” [10]. Such spending is a long-term play on AI infrastructure, but it could pressure near-term profit. Analysts note that accelerating AWS growth (above already-strong levels) would be a major positive.
  • Advertising & Media: Amazon’s advertising business is also a high-growth engine. In Q2 ad sales grew roughly 23% YoY [11], and continue to account for roughly 10–15% of total sales. Demand for digital ads has been strong (boosted by election spending last year [12]), and Amazon’s ad slots (on its website, video, etc.) are highly sought by brands. Wall Street expects ad revenue to keep pace. As one Bank of America analyst notes, “healthy retail sales” and strength in “online advertising” both point to upside in earnings [13]. In short, ads are an increasingly important profit contributor, with growth rates often much higher than overall retail.
  • Retail Sales & Logistics: Amazon’s core e-commerce business is stabilizing. It kicked off the holiday season with a second “Prime Big Deal Days” sale Oct. 7–8, which reportedly drew solid demand [14]. Online store sales grew about 11% in Q2 [15]. Amazon is preparing for peak season by hiring roughly 250,000 U.S. seasonal workers (same as last year) for warehouses and delivery [16]. These steps support the company’s fast-shipping promise. At the same time, Amazon is cutting costs: on Oct. 28 it announced plans to trim its white-collar workforce by about 14,000 roles as AI adoption increases [17]. (This is part of a wider plan – Reuters reports it may cut up to 30,000 roles over 2025–26 to compensate for pandemic over-hiring and limit costs entering holiday season [18].) Amazon still faces competition from discount rivals like Shein and Temu [19], and pressure from tariffs, but improved fulfillment efficiency and demand for Prime shipping have helped margins [20].
  • Expert & Analyst Commentary: Analysts are generally bullish on AMZN. JPMorgan maintains an “overweight” rating with a $265 price target, though it warns about Amazon’s AI positioning relative to rivals [21]. Bank of America is “upbeat”, noting strong retail and ad trends and forecasting upside to operating income [22]. Benchmark’s Kurnos (mentioned above) is optimistic on AWS. At the same time, Motley Fool analyst Jennifer Saibil argues that the current valuation is reasonable: “At its recent price, Amazon trades at 29 times forward one-year earnings… For a business with double-digit revenue growth [and] fast-growing high-margin segments (AWS and ads), this isn’t a bad price to pay,” she wrote [23]. Nearly all analysts rate AMZN a Buy: the average 12‑month consensus target is around $268 (roughly 18% above today’s price) [24], with top targets ranging into the high $260s (and a few into the $270–$280s) [25].
  • Outlook & Forecasts: Looking ahead, Wall Street expects Amazon’s growth to accelerate. The consensus for full-year 2025 EPS is about $7.60 (versus $2.90 in 2023) [26], reflecting a bounce from 2024 lows. Revenue is projected to grow ~15–20% annually over the next few years [27], assuming cloud and ads continue to gain traction. If those bets pay off, some commentators even speculate Amazon’s market cap could approach $3 trillion in the coming years [28]. Technically, traders note that a sustained break above ~$242 (the Feb 2025 high) could propel shares toward ~$270 [29]. However, Amazon still trades at about 33–34× forward earnings (higher than the S&P 500 average) [30], so most investors expect solid execution before justifying higher prices. In summary, after easing earlier in October Amazon appears to have rebounded: with earnings and holiday guidance on deck, many see the current levels as a buying opportunity if AWS and profitability trends hold up [31] [32].

Sources: Contemporary news and analysis, including Reuters [33] [34] [35] [36], company guidance and press releases, as well as reports from CNBC, Bloomberg, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, and tech analysis (e.g. TS2.tech) [37] [38] [39] [40], among others. All quotes and data points are drawn from the cited sources.

Jim Cramer: 'I like that Amazon’s never done trying to make you money'
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References

1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. ts2.tech, 5. ts2.tech, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. ts2.tech, 8. ts2.tech, 9. ts2.tech, 10. ts2.tech, 11. ts2.tech, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.businessinsider.com, 14. ts2.tech, 15. ts2.tech, 16. ts2.tech, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.businessinsider.com, 22. www.businessinsider.com, 23. ts2.tech, 24. ts2.tech, 25. ts2.tech, 26. ts2.tech, 27. ts2.tech, 28. ts2.tech, 29. ts2.tech, 30. ts2.tech, 31. ts2.tech, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. ts2.tech, 38. www.ftc.gov, 39. www.businessinsider.com, 40. ts2.tech

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Marcin Frąckiewicz Latest posts

CEO of TS2 Space and founder of TS2.tech. Expert in satellites, telecommunications, and emerging technologies, covering trends in space, AI, and connectivity.

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Stock Market Today

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    October 30, 2025, 6:02 PM EDT. Nasdaq 100 futures (US100:IND) slipped -0.3% after hours on Thursday, even as post-earnings gains lit up Apple and Amazon. Sentiment remained muted from the regular session, keeping upside limited despite the tech rally.
  • Nat-Gas Climbs on Colder US Weather Outlook and Heating Demand
    October 30, 2025, 5:49 PM EDT. December Nymex natural gas settled higher (+0.025, +0.84%), extending Monday's gains to a 5-month nearest-futures high as forecasts point to colder US weather later this month, boosting heating demand. Forecaster Maxar shifted cooler for Nov 28-Dec 2. Lower-48 gas production slipped to 101.1 bcf/d, while demand rose to 77.6 bcf/d. LNG net flows to US terminals were 13.4 bcf/d. Despite last week's EIA build of 42 bcf, inventories were up ~3.7% y/y and ~6.1% above the 5-year average. European storage sat around 93% full. The Baker Hughes rig count stood at 101 active rigs, near multi-year lows, signaling tighter supply dynamics into winter.
  • Crude Prices Edge Up on Demand Optimism Amid US-China Truce and Global Growth Signals
    October 30, 2025, 5:46 PM EDT. Crude oil and gasoline edged higher as traders priced in renewed demand optimism after a US-China tariff truce, with WTI and RBOB posting small gains. A weaker weekly EIA inventory draw and hopeful global growth supported the complex, though a firmer dollar limited gains. Eurozone Q3 growth surprised to the upside and the BOJ lifted its 2025 GDP forecast, boosting sentiment for energy demand. Sanctions on Russian energy, plus dwindling export capacity and Ukrainian strikes, keep supply concerns firm. Tanker stockpiles rose per Vortexa, while the IEA warned of a 2026 surplus; meanwhile OPEC+ eyes a modest December output hike to reverse earlier cuts. Overall, the demand outlook remains a key driver for crude and gasoline prices.
  • Is Apple's 2025 Stock Rally Justified by AI Advances? A Valuation Check
    October 30, 2025, 5:44 PM EDT. Apple's stock has climbed 3.9% over the past week, 5.9% in the last month, and nearly 20% over the past year, as AI advancements and new product launches keep investors optimistic. Yet regulatory scrutiny injects fresh risk. On valuation, the stock shows a mixed picture: a status of just 1/6 on being undervalued. The DCF approach yields an intrinsic value around $219.59 per share, implying the stock is about 22.8% overvalued vs. current prices. The piece also compares PE multiples as a quick check, noting that fair value depends on growth and risk assumptions. In short, the rally may be supported by AI momentum but valuation signals remain mixed, suggesting investors should weigh fundamentals against risks before trading.
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