New York, Jan 16, 2026, 14:40 EST — Regular session.
- U.S. Henry Hub natural gas futures fell about 1% to a fresh 13-week low on Friday.
- U.S. storage withdrawals came in light, leaving inventories above normal for this time of year.
- Gas-linked stocks were mixed, with UNG little changed and several producers higher in afternoon trade.
U.S. natural gas futures eased to a 13-week low on Friday, with the front-month February contract down 3.5 cents, or 1.2%, at $3.093 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The contract was set for its weakest close since Oct. 17 and was on track for a third straight weekly drop. 1
The move matters because winter pricing is still mostly about storage and weather, not headlines. Working gas in U.S. storage stood at 3,185 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of Jan. 9, after a 71 Bcf withdrawal on the week, the Energy Information Administration said — 33 Bcf above a year ago and 106 Bcf above the five-year average. 2
EIA data this week also showed futures leaning lower even as the calendar sits in peak heating season. The February 2026 NYMEX contract fell 41 cents over the report week to $3.120/mmBtu, EIA said, while the 12-month strip (an average of the next year’s contracts) slipped to $3.324. 3
On Thursday, gas futures held near a 12-week low ahead of the storage report, with traders leaning on forecasts for a smaller-than-usual withdrawal after mild weather. Analysts were looking for a 90 Bcf draw for the week ended Jan. 9, and meteorologists expected colder-than-normal weather through the end of the month; LSEG data also showed LNG “feedgas” — gas delivered into export plants — rebounding after disruptions, including at Freeport LNG in Texas. 4
Natural gas-linked equities did not mirror the day’s commodity slide. The U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was up about 0.2% at $10.32, while producer shares were higher: EQT added about 1.7%, Antero Resources rose 1.8%, and Range Resources gained 2.1%; LNG exporter Cheniere Energy was up about 2.1%.
Deal flow also landed in the sector’s inbox. Mitsubishi Corp said it would buy Aethon Energy Management’s U.S. shale production and infrastructure assets for $7.53 billion, with CEO Katsuya Nakanishi calling the reserves “high productivity and competitiveness” and saying the company aimed to support overseas supply “including Japan.” 5
Overseas gas markets are sending a different signal. Spot LNG in Asia for March delivery rose to $10.10/mmBtu, with colder weather forecasts across Northeast Asia and Europe tightening fundamentals, said Kesher Sumeet, senior LNG analyst at Energy Aspects; Martin Senior, head of LNG pricing at Argus, said European delivered prices had “risen sharply” for first-quarter delivery. 6
That global strength can keep U.S. LNG plants competing hard for feedgas even when Henry Hub slips, and it tends to put a floor under domestic demand on the margin. But it cuts both ways: when export plants stumble, the demand loss hits U.S. futures fast.
The other pressure point is inside Texas. Negative cash pricing at Waha — a West Texas hub — is a reminder that constraints can trap gas in the Permian and distort regional prices even when the national benchmark is steady.
The risk for bulls is simple: if temperatures moderate or output ticks up, storage can stay comfortable and keep Henry Hub pinned near $3 or lower. The risk for bears is equally clear — a colder turn or an unexpected supply dip can tighten balances quickly in late January.
Traders are now watching the next set of weather runs and daily LNG feedgas prints for signs the market is finally shifting from “ample” to merely “adequate.” Friday’s price action says it hasn’t happened yet.
Next up is the EIA’s Jan. 22 storage report, with investors looking for whether weekly withdrawals start moving closer to normal as the coldest part of winter approaches.
