NEW YORK, July 28, 2026, 09:59 EDT — U.S. cash markets have started trading.
Oil’s two-day decline has narrowed roughly 60% of the distance between Friday’s Brent finish and the scenario for full reopening presented by Goldman Sachs NYSE:GS. However, major energy stocks have seen only minor changes. This gap stands out as the most obvious message from investors.
Brent crude hovered close to $86.65 on Tuesday, slipping 1.9%. West Texas Intermediate dropped 1.5% to reach $81.36. Both oil benchmarks looked set for a third straight day of losses.
Shares of Exxon Mobil Corp. NYSE:XOM increased 0.4% at the start of trading. Chevron Corp. NYSE:CVX advanced 0.8%. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund NYSEARCA:XLE was up 0.3%.
The increases came after crude experienced only minor declines on Monday. The initial comparison takes into account both Monday’s performance and early prices on Tuesday.
| Asset | Monday shift | Early Tuesday | Net change since Friday |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | -9.0% | -1.9% | -10.5% |
| WTI crude | -7.5% | -1.5% | -8.9% |
| Exxon Mobil | -1.4% | +0.4% | -1.0% |
| Chevron | -2.3% | +0.8% | -1.5% |
Crude prices, as a result, dropped between six and ten times further than the two leading companies. Equity investors seem to anticipate that earnings will stay protected. The market is not factoring in a complete cash-flow adjustment.
Brent settled at $96.78 on Friday. Goldman projects the price will fall to $80 by the end of the year, assuming full reopening of Hormuz takes place in the fourth quarter. On Tuesday, prices had reflected about 60% of that projected drop. This figure represents a price comparison, rather than any estimate of likelihood.
Physical supply has lagged behind in its recovery. Persian Gulf oil exports stayed at 41% of levels seen before the war. Red Sea deliveries dropped by over 3 million barrels per day last week.
Giovanni Staunovo at UBS Group AG NYSE:UBS noted that the market “hopes the situation improves.” Oman is in talks with Iran about establishing a Hormuz management system. The plan would feature voluntary transit fees and involvement from Gulf states. Reuters
Significant supply risk persists. Saudi Aramco TADAWUL:2222 closed its Jazan refinery, which processes 400,000 barrels per day, following an assault. Ship movement through the Strait of Hormuz stayed limited, though activity near Bab el-Mandeb saw a slight uptick.
Energy stocks remained resilient, offsetting declines in the technology sector. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust NYSEARCA:SPY dropped 0.3%. The Invesco QQQ Trust NASDAQ:QQQ retreated 1.6%, and Nvidia Corp. NASDAQ:NVDA slipped 1.3%.
Integrated producers benefit from downstream insulation. TotalEnergies SE NYSE:TTE posted a 362% increase in refining and chemicals profit, with that segment generating $1.8 billion in the second quarter. Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanne stated that sporadic access to Hormuz may represent “the new normal.” Reuters
Risks: If the ceasefire fails, oil’s war premium may quickly return. Additional Red Sea interruptions risk driving prices higher than $100. On the other hand, a sustained reopening of Hormuz would weigh on upstream profits and favour Goldman’s $80 Brent outlook.
Investors are advised to monitor tanker movements and refinery shutdowns, rather than focusing solely on diplomatic rhetoric. Energy stocks currently reflect a lull that has yet to be matched by a rebound in physical flows. Markets have yet to factor in a return to regular supply levels.
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