Ford Shares Gain as Main Vehicle Divisions Represent 75% of Upgraded 2026 Profit Forecast

Ford ended Tuesday at $14.96, gaining 1.9%. Shares were up more than 4% in early Wednesday premarket trade. Reuters The catalyst was Ford’s updated adjusted EBIT forecast in the $10 billion–$11 billion range. The stock had risen 14% year to date through Tuesday. At Tuesday’s close, Ford’s market value stood near $60.9 billion. Premarket gains are volatile and can reverse. Reuters

Yes, based on the adjusted metrics most closely tracked by investors. Adjusted EBIT was $2.5 billion, topping the anticipated $2.1 billion. Revenue reported at $48.3 billion exceeded the consensus estimate of $47.2 billion. Adjusted EPS was $0.42, ahead of the $0.35 forecast. Despite these beats, revenue declined 4% and wholesale volume was down 12% year over year. Barron’s

The GAAP loss was primarily due to $4.2 billion in pretax special charges. This included a largely non-cash charge of $3.6 billion for the BlueOval SK exit. An additional $0.5 billion was tied to earlier announced EV program cancellations. When special items are excluded, adjusted EBIT increased 17% to $2.5 billion. This distinction is important and helps clarify why shares gained despite the reported loss.

Ford boosted its adjusted EBIT forecast to $10 billion–$11 billion, up from $8.5 billion–$10.5 billion. The new midpoint is $1 billion higher, an increase of roughly 10.5%. Adjusted free-cash-flow guidance was raised to $6 billion–$7 billion from $5 billion–$6 billion, pushing the midpoint up approximately 18%. Capital spending is unchanged at $9.5 billion–$10.5 billion. The company expects U.S. industry pricing to rise by about 0.5% this year.

Ford’s adjusted free cash flow for the first half reached just $0.2 billion. To reach its new guidance, the company needs $5.8 billion–$6.8 billion in the second half. In Q2 alone, Ford posted $2.1 billion, indicating a stronger quarterly pace. The automaker anticipates it will receive about $500 million in IEEPA reimbursement cash in 2026. Ford also projects that volume recovery linked to Novelis will help bolster second-half results. The leap needed is substantial, meaning that successful execution remains the key outstanding risk.

Ford Model e reported a Q2 loss of $919 million, a year-on-year improvement of $410 million. Despite this, segment revenue declined 56% and wholesales were down 53%. The 2026 loss forecast was revised to approximately $4 billion from the previous range of $4 billion–$4.5 billion, which includes around $1 billion allocated to Universal EV and Ford Energy. U.S. electric-vehicle sales slipped 57.4% in the first half. The division is making progress, but continues to run at a significant loss.

Ford Pro posted $1.7 billion in earnings for Q2, its highest contribution among the segments. Revenue slipped 5%, with EBIT down $600 million compared to a year earlier. The margin declined to 9.7% from 12.3%. Ford cited production disruptions and short-term aluminum supply shortages as reasons. Full-year Pro EBIT is forecast at $7 billion–$7.5 billion. Ford Blue showed significant growth, recording $1.1 billion in earnings and a 4.4% margin.

Ford reported a 10.3% decrease in U.S. second-quarter sales to 549,200 vehicles, while global wholesales slipped 12% to 1.039 million units. The company attributed the decline to discontinuation of certain models, shortages in aluminum supply, and a reduction in Gen-1 EV output. Despite weaker volumes, net pricing contributed roughly $200 million to adjusted EBIT. Ford is projecting a U.S. industry sales rate of 16.0 million–16.5 million vehicles; demand falling below this range would impact the outlook. Reuters

Ford had previously forecasted net tariff costs of around $1 billion for 2026. Management now anticipates a somewhat lower amount but has not specified a new figure. Ford continues to forecast approximately $1 billion in net EBIT recovery tied to Novelis, with the majority of this gain expected in the latter half. The guidance does not account for possible future tariff changes or a significant downturn in the U.S. economy. It also omits potential major escalations in the Middle East. Reuters

Ford announced a standard quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share. The dividend will be paid on September 1 to shareholders of record as of August 11. With shares at $14.96, the regular dividend equates to an annual yield of about 4.0%. As of the end of June, Ford reported $22.3 billion in cash and $43.4 billion in total liquidity. Despite this, adjusted free cash flow in the first half was just $0.2 billion. The strong liquidity cushion lessens short-term risks, though decisions on future dividends remain with the board.