June 17, 2026, 3:36 PM EDT. The Social Security retirement trust fund is projected to be depleted by late 2032, with beneficiaries potentially receiving only 78% of promised payments without legislative action. The Penn Wharton Budget Model concurs, estimating the fund's exhaustion by early 2033. Congress faces difficult choices including tax increases, benefit reductions, or combinations thereof. The shortfall stems from demographic shifts-fewer workers supporting more retirees due to lower birth rates and immigration-and reduced income tax revenue from recent legislation. Experts warn that modest adjustments will not resolve the funding gap, with proposals ranging from raising payroll tax rates from 12.4% to 17.1%, increasing the retirement age, or lifting wage caps. The looming funding crisis places Social Security reform at the forefront of political debate ahead of upcoming elections.