Gasoline prices near $3 as RBOB futures hold weekly gain; refiners in focus

Heating oil futures in the U.S. slipped on Friday, giving up a portion of Thursday’s gains as crude prices hovered close to six-month peaks. The March NY Harbor ULSD contract dropped 2.2 cents, or 0.8%, settling at $2.59 per gallon. April contracts slid roughly 1% to $2.48. That keeps the front months trading above later ones—traders call this “backwardation,” and it typically points to a tight supply in the near term.

Oil eased off on Friday, though prices stayed close to the highs not seen in six months, with traders eyeing the ongoing U.S.-Iran standoff alongside a notably steep drop in U.S. crude inventories. Brent was down 19 cents at $71.47 a barrel, a 0.27% dip as of 12:36 p.m. ET. U.S. West Texas Intermediate gave up 14 cents, or 0.21%, to trade at $66.29. Still, both contracts looked set to notch roughly 5.3% weekly gains, their first advance in three weeks, as Brent call options attracted fresh buying. “Caught in between” was how Phil Flynn at Price Futures Group put it—anticipation versus denial. Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen described the mood as a “wait-and-see day,” after Iran’s foreign minister signaled a draft counterproposal could surface within days.

Oil ticked up on Monday, recovering a bit after last week’s declines, as traders looked ahead to Tuesday’s second round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva and kept an eye on supply signals from OPEC+. Brent crude rose 41 cents, or 0.6%, reaching $68.16 a barrel by 1508 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude moved up 43 cents to $63.32, though there was no settlement because of the U.S. Presidents’ Day holiday, and activity was muted with parts of Asia closed for Lunar New Year. SEB analysts noted, “Increased Iranian tension could drive Brent to $80 a barrel. Fading tension would drop it back to $60 a barrel.”

Brent crude futures ticked up on Monday, staying close to the $68 mark. Traders were bracing for U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could end up altering the supply picture.

Heating oil futures on NYMEX jumped Wednesday, pulled higher by a wave of buying across the oil sector after U.S. data showed distillate stocks fell. March heating oil was last up 6.16 cents, or 2.57%, to $2.4604 a gallon at 11:55 a.m. ET, having touched $2.4803 earlier in the session.