US Economy 11 December 2025 - 17 December 2025

WASHINGTON — After weeks of uncertainty caused by the 43-day federal government shutdown, the U.S. economy is set for a long-awaited reality check on Tuesday, December 16. A delayed jobs report will combine two consecutive months of payroll data, while retail sales figures—also thrown off schedule—are expected to offer a key read on consumer momentum heading into the end of the year. ABC News+2Bureau of Labor Statistics+2 The timing matters. The Federal Reserve cut rates last week for the third time this year, pointing to softness in the labor market even as inflation remains an active concern. Investors and policymakers alike have been navigating a rare information gap—one that is now starting to close, but with notable caveats. ABC News+2Reuters+2

As markets head into the final full week of 2025, Monday’s U.S. economic calendar delivers an early read on factory momentum via the New York Fed’s Empire State survey, a fresh pulse check on homebuilder confidence, and two closely watched Federal Reserve appearances—all against a backdrop of a newly reduced policy rate, renewed liquidity operations in Treasury bills, and lingering data disruptions tied to the 2025 federal funding lapse. Reuters+3Kiplinger+3Reuters+3 While Monday isn’t the heaviest day for “big ticket” macro releases, it’s an important setup session: investors are trying to price the Fed’s next steps after December’s quarter-point rate cut, and they’re navigating a choppy information flow as some government statistics have been delayed, revised, or temporarily incomplete. Reuters+2Bureau of Labor Statistics+2