LONDON, March 19, 2026, 18:55 GMT
European natural gas prices shot higher on Thursday, with the front-month Dutch TTF contract rallying to 74 euros per megawatt hour—marking its highest intraday point since January 2023. The surge came after Iranian strikes targeted Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, sending gas prices up as much as 35% as traders tried to gauge the extent of the disruption.
This spike is significant—Ras Laffan handles about 20% of global LNG, meaning any disruption ripples. According to QatarEnergy’s CEO, the attack sidelined roughly one-sixth of Qatar’s LNG export capacity, and that outage could last three to five years. Europe sources just 9% of its LNG from Qatar, yet traders there are on alert: Asia grabs around 80% of Qatari shipments and will also be scrambling to secure new supply.
Wholesale gas prices across Europe have surged, now twice what they were before the Iran conflict erupted on Feb. 28. The European Central Bank flagged that extended oil and gas disruptions would push inflation higher than expected and hold back growth, bumping its 2026 inflation projection to 2.6%—up from the 1.9% it forecast back in December. The IMF echoed those concerns, warning that a prolonged energy shock could stoke global inflation and dent economic output.
QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi said two of the company’s 14 LNG trains were knocked out, taking 12.8 million metric tons of yearly output offline. The firm might have to declare force majeure on some longer-term deals, putting shipments to Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China in jeopardy. “For production to restart, first we need hostilities to cease,” he told Reuters. Reuters
Pressure is building fast in Asia. Spot LNG prices in the region shot up, doubling to their highest in three years this week. With Qatari shipments disrupted and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz at a standstill, utilities from Bangladesh to Japan are pivoting to coal and homegrown fuels.
“We’re already heading down the track toward a full-blown gas-crisis scenario,” said Saul Kavonic, energy analyst with MST Financial. Ryosuke Tsugaru of Japan’s JERA warned, “the longer this persists, the greater the impact,” with buyers turning to U.S. and Canadian supply outside the Middle East. Reuters
A handful of rivals now find themselves in the spotlight. Shell said it’s evaluating the impact on the assets it runs or accesses at Ras Laffan. In the U.S., Cheniere Energy and Venture Global anchor an LNG export network that’s become the world’s biggest.
The jolt rattled broader markets fast. European gas surged 22% in a single session. Brent crude shot past $119 a barrel, then gave up some ground. With energy-led inflation threatening to flare again, investors ramped up wagers that both the ECB and Bank of England could be forced to stick with tighter policy for longer.
Still, there’s room for prices to pull back. EU leaders are considering short-term tax relief, targeted state aid, and a handful of other measures, but even with Thursday’s surge, the Dutch benchmark sits well under the 2022 crisis highs—those were north of 300 euros per megawatt hour. If Gulf shipping resumes and attacks stop, some of that near-term pressure could quickly ease.
Traders are keeping a close eye on tanker movement from the Gulf, waiting to see how long Qatar remains offline. With that uncertainty, buyers in Europe and Asia are likely to scramble for any flexible cargoes available.
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