SINGAPORE, June 29, 2026, 16:08 SGT
- Brent was up 0.6% to $72.44 at 0627 GMT after new U.S.-Iran strikes brought delays to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI added 1.2% to $70.05.
- Only one tanker entered the Gulf last week for every four that left, pointing to a return traffic bottleneck as the restart issue.
- Oil flows through the strait reached 19.87 million bpd in 2025, but bypass pipelines could move just 3.5 million to 5.5 million bpd.
- Saudi Aramco TADAWUL:2222 continued loading at Ras Tanura. Iran increased loadings from Kharg Island after the U.S. granted a 60-day sanctions waiver.
Oil prices moved higher Monday, but tanker traffic out of the Gulf drew more attention. Vessel departures are outpacing returns, suggesting the market risks a short-term crude glut and possible delays restarting flows.
Brent crude futures moved up 45 cents to $72.44 a barrel by 0627 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude traded 82 cents higher at $70.05. Oil prices picked up after attacks on a Qatari-connected oil tanker and a container ship disrupted Hormuz shipping lanes and sparked the sharpest U.S.-Iran escalation since their interim peace deal. Washington and Tehran on Sunday agreed to stop recent hostilities and restart talks, a U.S. official told Reuters.
Traders in oil funds aren’t just betting on war risk now. The main thing is the mismatch in speed: tankers sail out fast, but return trips lag, slowing a restart for fields and refineries. Without inbound ships, producers can’t empty storage and resumes normal output. Reuters Open Interest, citing LSEG data, said last week one tanker entered the Gulf for every four that left—well below the usual pre-war traffic.
| Hormuz measure | Baseline | Latest read | Investor read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total oil through Hormuz | 19.87 million bpd in 2025 | Route open but choppy | Exports are enough to keep a lid on spot crude |
| Available bypass pipeline capacity | 3.5 million-5.5 million bpd | Covers about 18%-28% of 2025 Hormuz volume | Pipelines are limited if things flare up again |
| Ship crossings | Roughly 125 per day before war | Volumes still well below that | Large cargoes can hide how slow traffic is |
| Tanker direction | Normal in and out | Last week saw four departures for one arrival | Restart needs more ships to come back in |
| Gulf storage | No simple pre-war benchmark | Rystad puts it at 50%-60% full | Slower flows can force output down |
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said last week about 72 ships carrying 20 million barrels of oil passed through Hormuz in 24 hours. “We have normal flows today,” Wright told the Reuters Global Energy Forum. He said a lot of vessels still avoided the main channel because of mines, and said a full recovery in navigation could take weeks as demining continues. Reuters
Traders are divided. Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said there’s a feeling that “oil is going to keep moving through the Strait of Hormuz.” PVM’s Tamas Varga said most expect “imminent oversupply.” June Goh at Sparta Commodities pointed to more exits through Hormuz and said “China not yet picking up crude demand.” Reuters
Fabien Yip, a market analyst at IG Group (LON:IGG) in Sydney, told Al Jazeera oil moved up “too quickly on ceasefire optimism” before Thursday’s vessel attack gave the market a “reality check.” Tony Sycamore, also with IG, said crude is “reasonably priced with a downward bias” if Hormuz opens in a limited way, but is “way too cheap” if fighting breaks out again over the weekend. Al Jazeera
| Date | Brent | WTI | Market trigger |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 25 close | $75.26, up 2.1% | $71.92, up 2.3% | Cargo ship struck near Oman; UN paused shipping evacuations |
| June 26 close | $71.99, down 4.34% | $69.23, down 3.74% | Hormuz tanker departures rose; Ras Tanura back loading |
| June 29, 0627 GMT | $72.44, up 0.6% | $70.05, up 1.2% | U.S.-Iran weekend strikes delayed shipping again |
Futures are showing the same squeeze. Last week, August Brent slipped under September for the first time since the war started on February 28, Reuters Open Interest said. This front-month contango signals a possible mini-glut, with Gulf barrels piling up as they move out faster than buyers in Asia and Europe can take them.
Saudi Aramco continued loading crude at Ras Tanura, with a fourth VLCC seen at the dock on Monday. Reuters, citing ship-tracking data, said three other supertankers loaded and then went dark after they left the terminal over the weekend. One later reappeared past the strait on its way to Japan. Two VLCCs moved through the strait and docked at a UAE terminal to load.
Iran sped up shipments at Kharg Island after the U.S. gave it a 60-day sanctions waiver, according to Reuters. Iranian-flagged VLCCs Dan and Hawk went through the strait Saturday. Around 8 million barrels of crude from the UAE and Qatar shipped out on four VLCCs over the weekend. LNG cargoes from Qatar and the UAE were still moving, headed for Kuwait, India, and China.
Energy traders face a patchy reopening. Exports might drag on Brent, but the flow of vessels could stay tight, keeping supply off balance. Attacks are still a concern for freight and insurance costs. Al Jazeera said Washington and Tehran agreed to halt strikes, with possible talks in Doha on Tuesday, but Iran has not responded to the report.
Note: I couldn’t get into the New York Times link with the browsing tool, so I left out any info I couldn’t back up with other reliable sources.
