New York, July 12, 2026, 15:06 (EDT)
U.S. markets stayed shut on Sunday. Tesla finished Friday at $407.76, up 3.6% from the July 2 close before the holiday. Tesla outperformed the Nasdaq Composite by almost two points. Even with the bounce, shares are still 4.1% under where they stood July 1, the day before Tesla posted record Q2 deliveries.
Investors now face a tougher valuation ahead of second-quarter earnings on July 22. Shares are already trading 0.4% above the $406 average analyst target, Barron’s reported. Citizens Financial Group NYSE:CFG analyst Andrew Boone started coverage with a Hold, no price target, saying “this grand vision will take time” and that expectations for the near term are too high. Barron’s
Tesla outpaced both the market and legacy carmakers with its rebound this week, according to closing prices. The stock was also much less volatile than smaller EV competitor Rivian.
| Security | July 2 close | July 10 close | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA | $393.45 | $407.76 | +3.6% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,832.67 | 26,281.61 | +1.7% |
| Rivian NASDAQ:RIVN | $18.63 | $17.48 | -6.2% |
| General Motors NYSE:GM | $76.00 | $77.85 | +2.4% |
Moves are based on close prices.
Tesla’s latest operating numbers give some clues on why the big delivery beat didn’t lead to a bigger move in the shares. The company reported 480,126 deliveries, ahead of Visible Alpha’s 402,776 forecast, but it sold 28,368 more cars than it made—so it pulled from older inventory. Seth Goldstein at Morningstar NASDAQ:MORN said Europe is driving things for Tesla at the moment. David Wagner at Aptus Capital Advisors said “the big money is still waiting” for more on Tesla’s AI plans. Reuters
| Second-quarter measure | Reported figure | Comparison | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vehicle deliveries | 480,126 | Analysts were looking for 402,776 | Up 19.2% |
| Vehicle production | 451,758 | Delivered 480,126 | Down 28,368 |
| Energy-storage deployments | 13.5 GWh | Q1 showed 8.8 GWh | Up 53.4% |
Inventory dropped by 36.7% of the total delivery beat, a figure that shows the scale but doesn’t prove the lower inventory drove the beat. Next, investors will watch the July 22 report to see if that big delivery number meant better automotive margins—what’s left after direct vehicle costs—or if it just came from higher discounts, steeper financing, or selling more lower-priced models.
Tesla is trading at around 210 times estimated 2026 earnings, Barron’s says. That high multiple means shares price in a lot of future profit from robotaxis, Optimus robots, and other businesses, even before they add to earnings in a real way.
Rivian shares fell this week after the company said it would sell 75 million shares, even though it predicted quarterly revenue above Wall Street’s forecast. The share offer dilutes current holders, who now have a smaller stake in the company. Tesla doesn’t face this kind of near-term dilution, but its valuation leaves it needing to show more on operations.
Still, the bear case isn’t just about inventory drops. Tesla might have pushed record deliveries with discounts or cheap loans, which could pressure profits per vehicle. If those deals disappear, demand could slip. But if margins and cash flow come in stronger than expected, analysts’ $406 target could look out of date fast.
No Tesla earnings on deck this week. Traders get U.S. June CPI Tuesday, July 14, 8:30 a.m. ET. June retail sales come out Thursday, July 16, same hour. Hotter inflation could push rates higher and pressure growth stocks like Tesla, where profits are far out. The company’s next scheduled earnings report is July 22.
