NEW YORK, July 6, 2026, 08:04 EDT
- Rivian stock is back open after jumping 8.4% on July 2, with the move coming after the company reported stronger Q2 deliveries and lifted its 2026 delivery target.
- The updated outlook midpoint means around 44,941 vehicles need to ship in the second half, which is 84% more per quarter than Q2 deliveries.
- JPMorgan bumped its target to $15 from $9 on Rivian but stuck with an Underweight call, still below where Rivian last traded.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. NASDAQ:RIVN goes into the U.S. open Monday still showing gains from last week’s delivery numbers. The bigger question now isn’t the Q2 beat. It’s whether Rivian can push its second-half run rate up to match the new forecast.
U.S. markets were still closed when this was filed. The NYSE was set to open at 9:30 a.m. ET after being shut for Independence Day on Friday, July 3. As of the last pricing, Rivian was quoted at $18.63 and valued at around $23.3 billion.
Rivian reported July 2 it made 12,613 vehicles and delivered 12,194 in Q2, topping its own guidance of 9,000-11,000. Rivian now expects 2026 deliveries of 65,000 to 70,000, up from its old forecast of 62,000-67,000.
| Rivian delivery math | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | H1 2026 | H2 needed for 2026 midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deliveries | 10,365 | 12,194 | 22,559 | 44,941 |
| Production | 10,236 | 12,613 | 22,849 | n/a |
| Average quarterly delivery pace | 10,365 | 12,194 | 11,280 | 22,471 |
Rivian’s second-half is in focus. First-half deliveries got to 33.4% of the new 67,500 midpoint target. To hit the mark, Rivian will need to get 66.6% of that number in the back half. That works out to about 22,471 vehicles each quarter, an 84% jump from Q2. Figures for Q1 production and deliveries appeared in Rivian’s April release.
This is a change because the stock’s price now depends on more than just a single quarter. At a market cap of $23.3 billion, Rivian is valued at about $345,000 a vehicle based on its 2026 delivery midpoint. Tesla Inc. NASDAQ:TSLA trades around $725,000 per car if you annualize its Q2 delivery figure. Tesla reported 480,126 vehicles delivered in Q2.
| Valuation, Delivery Data | Rivian NASDAQ:RIVN | Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap latest | $23.3 bln | $1.392 trln |
| Delivery metric cited | 67,500 as guided for 2026 midpoint | Q2 480,126 deliveries, annualized |
| Count in the base | 67,500 | 1,920,504 |
| Market cap per vehicle (base) | near $345,000 | near $725,000 |
Rivian trades at a lower price than Tesla if you look at units, but the comparison works in both directions. Tesla’s market cap wraps in its software, energy products, and autonomy lines. For Rivian, a lot now rides on turning R2 from small-scale launches into large-scale deliveries without losing margins.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. NYSE:JPM on Monday bumped up its price target on Rivian to $15 from $9, maintaining its Underweight call. The team has lifted its 2026 delivery forecast to 68,100 trucks from 64,900. The new price target is still under Rivian’s last close.
Bulls point to R2. In May, Reuters quoted CEO RJ Scaringe saying, “There are other variants of R2, which we haven’t shown,” and, “What we’re building in Georgia allows for different variations.” Cantor Fitzgerald’s Andres Sheppard wrote in a client note that R2 could “materially boost sales” and “capture additional EV market share.” Reuters
Rivian started delivering the R2 in June, the company said. Reuters reported last week that the cheaper SUV is set to go up against Tesla’s Model Y. According to Reuters, 15 analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha were looking for Rivian to deliver 63,138 vehicles this year before the company raised its forecast.
EV stocks were mixed before the bell. Rivian kept its gain from last week. Tesla and Lucid Group Inc. NASDAQ:LCID traded lower in early quotes.
| Latest available market data | Price | Change | Market value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rivian NASDAQ:RIVN | $18.63 | up $1.455 | $23.27 bln |
| Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA | $393.45 | down $31.96 | $1.392 trln |
| Lucid NASDAQ:LCID | $6.08 | fell $0.55 | $2.00 bln |
| General Motors Co. NYSE:GM | $76.00 | added $0.47 | $70.38 bln |
| Ford Motor Co. NYSE:F | $13.36 | off $0.30 | $54.39 bln |
Index futures traded higher before the bell, with growth stocks getting some relief. E-mini S&P 500 futures added 0.44%, and E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1.00%, MarketWatch data showed.
Rivian’s Q1 numbers lay out the issues with scaling deliveries. The company said revenue for the quarter was $1.38 billion, with gross profit at $119 million. Rivian posted a net loss of $416 million and negative free cash flow of $1.075 billion. Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments stood at $4.83 billion at the end of Q1.
Rivian’s next big moment comes July 30, when it releases its Q2 earnings. The company’s delivery outlook has improved, but margins and cash flow haven’t faced their second-quarter review yet.
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