Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL) shares rise 21% as hyperscalers boost AI investments

NEW YORK, July 31, 2026, 07:03 EDT — Shares of Marvell NASDAQ:MRVL climbed 21% as major hyperscale clients increased spending on artificial intelligence.

Marvell advanced 7.7% to $197.40 ahead of Friday’s session, building on a 12.2% rise from Thursday.
Amazon.com NASDAQ:AMZN increased its projected capital expenditure for 2026 by 10%, reaching $220 billion. AWS reported a 37% rise in sales for the quarter.
Amazon’s budget allocation amounts to approximately 91% of Marvell’s most recent quarterly revenue. This is a size comparison, not a prediction.

Marvell stock rose 7.7% in premarket trade to $197.40, before the start of regular U.S. trading hours.

The action came after a 12.2% gain on Thursday. Marvell has recovered 20.8% since Wednesday’s close.

Amazon sparked the most recent surge. Revenue from AWS climbed 37% year-on-year to $42.2 billion. The company also increased its planned capital expenditure for 2026 to $220 billion.

Marvell faces direct exposure. The company’s five-year deal with AWS includes custom AI devices, optical processors, PCIe retimers, and Ethernet switch silicon.

Scale is significant. One percent of Amazon’s intended outlay amounts to $2.2 billion. Marvell reported $2.418 billion in revenue last quarter.

The price trend highlights the distance yet to cover.

Reference point	MRVL price	Session move
June 30 close	$297.89	Monthly reference
July 24 close	$194.23	-7.21%
July 29 close	$163.40	-6.34%
July 30 close	$183.30	+12.18%
July 31 premarket, 07:00 ET	$197.40	+7.69% from Thursday

Premarket and closing prices were sourced from Public market data and S&P Global-derived historical data.

Despite the recovery, Marvell was still trading 33.7% under its June closing price and stood just 1.6% higher than last Friday’s close. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had fallen over 20% so far in July.

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy stated that “AWS is booming.” The annual revenue run rate for Amazon’s AI and chip divisions both surpassed $25 billion. Amazon Investor Relations

The most recent hyperscaler results indicated robust demand, while cash outcomes varied.

Company	Cloud-demand signal	Capital-spending signal	Cash-flow check
Amazon	AWS revenue reached $42.2 billion, an increase of 37%	Capital spending plan for 2026 set at $220 billion, a rise of 10%	Trailing free cash flow shows an outflow of $7.6 billion
Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT	Azure saw growth of 43%; Microsoft Cloud revenue totaled $59.3 billion, up 27%	Fourth-quarter capital expenditures were $41 billion; guidance for next quarter exceeds $50 billion	Fourth-quarter free cash flow stood at $19.6 billion

The reporting periods and definitions of cloud differ. The data indicates the trend in spending rather than providing directly comparable margins.

Jake Behan, head of capital markets at Direxion, noted that investors favored firms able to “successfully monetize AI investments.” This momentum also impacted Marvell. Reuters

Microsoft reported that demand for Azure remained higher than existing capacity. Additional computing resources were rapidly turned into revenue throughout the quarter.

On Wednesday, Marvell revealed a $250 million investment in India. The company intends to increase its workforce in the country twofold within three years and grow its operations in Bangalore and Hyderabad.

The expenditure numbers highlight the scale of Marvell’s opportunity.

Scale comparison	Calculated result	Investor reading
Amazon’s $220 billion plan / Marvell FY2026 revenue	26.8 times	Spending from a single client far exceeds Marvell’s revenue
Amazon’s $20 billion spending increase / Marvell FY2026 revenue	2.44 times	Just the incremental spend surpasses two full years of Marvell’s revenue
1% of Amazon’s plan / Marvell Q1 FY2027 revenue	91%	Even a limited stake of this market would have significant impact
Amazon’s spending increase / Marvell’s India investment	80 times	Marvell’s scale-up in India is minor relative to Amazon’s increase

The figures are based on Amazon’s disclosed expenditure and Marvell’s stated $8.195 billion in revenue for the fiscal year. The assessment does not project upcoming orders.

Marvell posted a 28% rise in first-quarter revenue, reaching $2.418 billion. Sales from data centers made up $1.833 billion, accounting for 76% of total revenue. The company projected its second-quarter revenue at $2.7 billion, with a margin of plus or minus 5%.

Management projects custom-chip revenue to exceed $10 billion in fiscal 2029. The company has set a total-revenue goal of $16.5 billion for fiscal 2028. Marvell’s larger competitor in custom chips is Broadcom NASDAQ:AVGO, with Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA continuing as the primary alternative for merchant processors.

Risks: Marvell can only target a small portion of Amazon’s budget. The company also identifies risks from customer concentration, internal chip production, and supply-chain issues. Amazon’s $7.6 billion free-cash-flow outflow indicates that its spending power is not unlimited.

The price recovery reflects increased customer demand. It remains unclear how much of this spending Marvell will secure.

TS2 TECH • EXTENDED COVERAGE

Further analysis

Editorial insight

What is causing movement in Marvell’s shares today?

Marvell ended trading on July 30 at $183.30, up 12.18% with 29.9 million shares exchanging hands. By 6:57 a.m. EDT, its shares were at $197.40, a further increase of 7.69%. The Wall Street Journal Amazon posted 37% AWS growth and raised projected capital expenditures for 2026 to $220 billion. Investors connected the updated spending forecast to Marvell’s presence in custom chips. Premarket stock moves may change rapidly. reuters.com

Are Marvell’s most recent results enough to support the rebound?

Marvell posted first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of $2.418 billion, up 28% from a year ago. Data-center sales made up $1.833 billion, accounting for 76% of overall revenue. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.80, with operating cash flow totaling $638.8 million. The company projects second-quarter revenue of $2.70 billion, with a 5% margin of variability. Marvell also expects adjusted EPS of $0.93, give or take $0.05. The company reiterated this forecast on June 11. Marvell Technology, Inc.

What is the scale of Marvell’s opportunity for growth in artificial intelligence?

Management projects fiscal 2028 revenue at $16.5 billion, compared to fiscal 2026 revenue of $8.195 billion. Achieving this would mean approximately 42% annual growth over two years. Marvell anticipates its data center revenue will climb around 50% in fiscal 2027. Management also forecasts custom-chip revenue surpassing $10 billion in fiscal 2029. These figures reflect management’s targets, not firm customer commitments. reuters.com

Does MRVL offer value following its significant decline?

MRVL ended Thursday trading at around 45 times predicted fiscal 2027 earnings, dropping to approximately 29 times for fiscal 2028 earnings. The premarket price on Friday lifted these to about 49 and 32, respectively. Shares continued to trade roughly 40% below their peak of $329.88. Trading at a lower price than in June does not necessarily mean the shares are cheap. The Wall Street Journal

What do analyst projections suggest about Marvell’s stock price?

FactSet data shows an average 12-month price target of $268.15, with a median at $250. Targets range between $180 and $400. The average suggests shares could rise 46% from Thursday’s close at $183.30. Analysts project consensus earnings per share of $4.05 for fiscal 2027, increasing to $6.24 in fiscal 2028. The difference is significant. Analyst forecasts remain especially volatile. The Wall Street Journal

How much does Marvell rely on individual customers?

Marvell’s largest reported direct customer accounted for 16% of revenue in the first quarter. Its leading distributor was responsible for 45%, serving numerous end clients. The ten biggest customers collectively made up 82% of fiscal 2026 revenue. In the quarter, three customers together comprised 75% of gross accounts receivable. Amazon’s spending forecast remains supportive. Customer concentration remains a double-edged sword. SEC

Do Marvell’s stated earnings match the strength implied by its adjusted results?

GAAP earnings per share for the first quarter came in at $0.04, compared with adjusted EPS of $0.80. Adjustments excluded $207.6 million in stock-based compensation and $225.2 million in amortization, along with a $331.8 million remeasurement of contingent liabilities that weighed on reported profit. Marvell offset part of the impact with an $81.1 million gain on hedges linked to that exposure. Adjusted figures more clearly reflect ongoing operations, but dilution effects and acquisition expenses continue to be present. Marvell Technology, Inc.

Is Marvell able to finance acquisitions without putting strain on its balance sheet?

On May 2, Marvell reported holding $3.84 billion in cash and about $5.00 billion in debt, resulting in net debt of nearly $1.16 billion. Operating cash flow for the first quarter set a new high at $638.8 million. Marvell paid $3.54 billion for Celestial AI and $469 million for XConn, but both delivered only minimal first-quarter revenue and earnings. The main balance-sheet risks now are execution and integration. SEC

What level of shareholder dilution might Marvell experience?

In March, Nvidia put $2.0 billion into Marvell’s convertible preferred shares. This could be exchanged for about 21.8 million common shares at around $91.84 each, equivalent to approximately 2.4% of forecast second-quarter basic shares. Celestial AI and XConn together were tied to a total of 26.6 million Marvell shares. As of May 2, none of the preferred shares had converted. Strategic support remains important, but per-share growth must outpace dilution. SEC

Does being added to the S&P 500 lower the downside risk for Marvell?

Marvell entered the S&P 500 before trading started on June 22, prompting index-following funds to adjust their portfolios. News Release Archive Despite the inclusion, shares have dropped about 40% from their peak in June. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index posted a decline of more than 20% throughout July. The Wall Street Journal China made up 44% of shipment destinations for the first quarter, though this does not directly indicate final demand. Additional concerns include decreased AI investment, delays from customers, export restrictions, and integration challenges. Volatility has stayed at higher-than-normal levels. SEC

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Michał Rogucki is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and macroeconomic developments. A graduate of Humboldt University of Berlin, he previously worked in investment research and market analysis before transitioning to financial journalism. He covers the trends and events that matter most to investors worldwide.

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